Bush, as The Decider, has his own test for when the sectarian violence in Iraq is officially proclaimed as a “civil war.” It does not matter what is reported by the media, Iraqis, US generals or US troops on the ground. What matters is what Dear Leader says. Well, using Dear Leader’s own test, his own words as to what qualifies as a civil war, recent events show that civil war is now in Iraq. It’s just a matter of time before Bush figures this out!
Last March, Bush defined civil war as when the Iraq government breaks down so that the government and Army is no longer nonsectarian:
“The administration hasn’t made its definition of full-blown civil war explicit. But in March, when Iraq’s former prime minister Ayad Allawi said the country was already fighting a civil war, Bush disagreed, noting the existence of Iraq’s nonsectarian Army and government.”
Bush has dismissed media reports of sectarian violence for months, even more than a year now, as simply that liberal media which only reports the bad news. Last week, Gen. Abizaid, the Commander of the US Central Command, and thus a person who should know a thing or two about the Iraq War, stated that Iraq may be “sliding toward civil war” based on the level of sectarian violence. Gen. Pace (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) agreed, saying that he believed “we do have the possibility of that devolving to a civil war.”
While Bush and DC debate the coming of civil war, troops say evidence in Iraq shows civil war has already arrived:
“Army troops in and around Baghdad interviewed in the last week cite a long list of evidence that the center of the nation is coming undone: Villages have been abandoned by Sunni and Shiite Muslims; Sunni insurgents have killed thousands of Shiites in car bombings and assassinations; Shiite militia death squads have tortured and killed hundreds, if not thousands, of Sunnis; and when night falls, neighborhoods become open battlegrounds.”
Yesterday, Bush dismissed these concerns of civil war:
“You know, I hear people say, Well, civil war this, civil war that. The Iraqi people decided against civil war when they went to the ballot box.”
Well, recent news reports show that sectarian militas are now part of Iraqi security forces, there was an attempted coup to overturn the government and new plans for the sectarian establishment of a state in Iraq.
Today, it is reported that Sunnis are now forming their own militias to counter the Shia militias in the fight to win Baghdad, which now involves US troops and Shia militias loyal to al-Sadr and “which forms part of the governing coalition.” Previously, Shia militias have infiltrated the Iraqi Security Forces and local police. Now, an Iraqi government official is adding Sunni milita groups to the Iraq National Guard:
“The Times learnt yesterday that Tareq al-Hashemi, Iraq’s Sunni Vice-President, is forming a unit of the National Guard that will act as his personal bodyguard and fend off attacks against Addumiyah, a Sunni district surrounded by overwhelmingly Shia districts. It will be the first official Sunni militia group and a counter to security forces that have been heavily infiltrated by Shia militias.”
Recruitment has already commenced for the Sunni militia:
“A young Sunni from west Baghdad, who refused to be identified, said that recruiting had already started for Mr al-Hashemi’s group. The initial aim was to sign up 350 former army personnel who are to be trained as part of the Defence Ministry, which will also outfit and arm them. They were being offered $700 a month.”
The plan is to call this Sunni militia a “personal security guard unit for Tareq al-Hashemi to give it official cover and secure funding, but on the ground it’ll be a Sunni militia.”
This follows on the heel of a report yesterday that Iraqi military officers attempted a coup last month:
“The government of Iraq is secretly holding a Baathist cabal of military officers it claims attempted a coup against Prime Minister al-Maliki. The plotters were rounded up July 5 with the help of American military authorities after the Iraqi government’s security warning center sent word to Mr. Maliki, who was in Kuwait on his first official visit as head of state, two highly placed Iraqi sources said.”
“In an interview last night, an adviser to Mr. Maliki and a member of parliament in Baghdad, Mithal al-Alusi, said a coup attempt indeed took place last month. He said the mutinous attempt to replace the elected government of Iraq was organized by military officers loyal to Saddam Hussein.”
Last month, the Washington Post also reported that Iraqi officials were warning about a coup attempt, which would mean “canceling the constitution, canceling the results of the elections and going back to square one.” Of course, this would not be the first coup, which has been the primary vehicle for governmental changes in “1941, 1958, 1963, 1968, and by some accounts 1979, when Saddam came to full power.”
In addition to the coup attempt and sectarian militias, the Shi’ite majority is pushing ahead to create a federal region for themselves in the country’s south. That is, the creation of a Shi’ite state.
Bush’s primary reason for refusing to acknowledge civil war is that he needs to delay things until shortly before the midterm elections. Bush’s strategy is to pursue his new Iraq policy of a “Plan for Victory,” which requires ceding security control to Iraqis so that US troops may withdraw. Victory is crucial to reducing public pressure to withdraw troops and to bolster the GOP’s ability to win midterm elections. This is also crucial for Bush personally so that he may avoid a Democratic majority in Congress that may actually perform their oversight and investigative duties of various Bush scandals. However, “civil war” is “sort of a proxy term for wars we cannot win” and would fly in the face of Bush’s need for a victory.
The problem is that sectarian violence has continued unabated, which drowns out Bush’s plans for a victory. Moreover, GOP Warner suggests that Congress may need to vote on a new Iraq War Resolution if civil war breaks out because US troops may not be equipped to handle civil war and thus a new mission may have to be approved for the US military. This would put a damper on Bush’s claims to broad “war on terror” powers emanating from the original Iraq War resolution, which may now be superceded.
And, when Bush does finally deem Iraq to be a civil war, the plan of the White House and Pentagon is to withdraw US troops from Iraq so our troops are not “caught in the crossfire.” It simply would not be politically advantageous for Bush and the GOP to withdraw troops before such action can have maximum impact close to the midterm elections.
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