Iran may be willing to discuss the suspension of its uranium enrichment program according to this article from Bloomberg.com:
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) — Iran is ready to discuss with the European Union the suspension of its atomic activities, the country’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said.
“We are even ready to discuss the offer on nuclear activity suspension, which we see as illogical,” the state-run news agency IRNA quoted Mottaki as saying today at a news conference in Tehran.
The United Nations Security Council on July 31 gave Iran until the end of this month to accept a European Union-led proposal of incentives, and suspend uranium enrichment, or face the threat of economic sanctions. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday underlined Iran’s intention to respond formally to the offer on Aug. 22.
This somewhat contradicts earlier statements this week from Ahmadinejad that Iran would not suspend it nuclear program in the face of threatened sanctions by the United Nations. Also interesting is who gets left out of the possible negotiations: the United States. This may be simply a maneuver to break Bush’s tentative alliance with the EU on the issue of Iran’s nuclear activities, or it may be a legitimate overture.
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After all, Iran may believe that any negotiations with the US at this point would be futile in light of the American government’s efforts to stall a negotiated cease fire between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran isn’t stupid, nor is their president. Despite his rash statements regarding Israel on many occasions he has shown himself to be far shrewder on the diplomatic front than the Bush administration over the last year. He knows he and his country are in the sights of the Neocons as America’s next war to bring freedom and democracy to the Middle East.
In either case, it presents a test of the strength of the alliance between Bush and the EU on the issue of Iran’s nuclear activities. I expect to see a condemnation of Iran’s diplomatic move from the US government (probably to be issued by John Bolton, but maybe from Condi Rice) with a corresponding issistence to the Europeans that no negotiations take place until Iran suspends uranium enrichment. Which begs the question: Will Bush’s European allies stand with the US, or will they choose to pursue separate negotiations with Iran?
If the EU accepts Iran’s overture and negotiations begin, it disrupts both Bush’s timetable for war, and his ability to make use of Iran’s alleged threat in the midterm election campaign. No doubt, Ahmadinejad is well aware of the political implications for Bush if the Iranian threat is diminished in the run up to Election Day in the US. On the other hand, he also wishes to continue his enrichment program, and to prepare for its disbursement of facilities, scientists and nuclear materials prior to any possible US attack. He is well aware that “regime change” in Iran is the ultimate goal of the Bush administration whether or not the Republican party retains control of Congress this Fall.
Ahmadinejad’s playing a bit of a dangerous game, and its not clear how much support for his policies he has from the ruling mullahs, whose governmental authority and power outrank his own. It’s doubtful he can act completely independently of their wishes. With the deadline to accept the UN demand that all uranium enrichment end rapidly approaching, the next few days and weeks should prove interesting.
