The water N of the Yucatan are some of the warmest in the Gulf. Ernesto gets over that water, and that storm will be Cat 4 or 5 within 36 hours. If Ernesto gets to that water N of the Yucatan, there should be immediate mandatory evacuation orders all over the Gulf Coast.
If anyone close to the Gulf Coast sees Ernesto get to that breeding ground N of the Yucatan, don’t wait for the orders. Pack and LEAVE immediately.
We just can’t mess around waiting to see exactly where storms are coming ashore. The levees in New Orleans are not repaired. The pumps are running a minimal capacity. Strong tropical storm conditions could fill New Orleans with water all over again.
Consider this thread open to any discussion related to Ernesto.
Edited 8/27 for the change in Ernesto’ status
If it goes into the gulf, what kind of time line, four to five days to landfall??
It all depends. The Gulf of Mexico is tricky place. I think it was hurricane Danny that got stuck spinning in the Gulf (i think it it was ’98) for like 3 or 4 days because of a cold front. Then it came in at 2 or 3 and drained the Mobile Bay dry and flooded the city with like 3 or 4 feet of water.
Amend that comment to read better.
Then it came in at category 2 or 3 and drained the mobile bay dry.
No caffeine yet.
Well fuck! You see where it’s headed don’t you? Here’s to hoping for some kind of a cold front. Used to live in Pensacola, if a cold front settles in it won’t get to big of a storm. Maybe a 1 or 2 at most. No cold front…spells everyone fucked. Sorry for the language, I don’t normally type it but lately…
Updated computer model forecast continues to have Ernesto moving on an ENE course into the central Gulf of Mexico, stregthening into a major hurricane.
isn’t that path straight into the main area populated by oil rigs? Better fill up now before gas hits $4 a gallon.
Ditto your shrimp — better stock up for those Labor Day cookouts. <semi-snark>
There’s a good blogsite called The Oil Drum that has good info on hurricanes and how they effect the Gulf of Mexico oil production.
From that site, here’s a graphic of the oil well distribution in the Gulf. It’s pretty much everywhere, but it looks like Ernesto has a chance to go to the East of the most densely packed oil production areas.
This is just not good at all.
Time for people along the Gulf Coast, especially anybody in the New Orleans area, to start packing. Unpacking if a hurricane misses you is pretty easy to do. Packing at the last minute is neither easy or quick.
Thanks for this! I have family in the P’cola area. Time for some phonecalls.
“WTNT45 KNHC 261454
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
AT ABOUT 09Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AND MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE WINDSAT
SATELLITE AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERNESTO REMAINS
PARTLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB…AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12…A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OTHER
THAN THAT…THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN…FORECAST REASONING…AND
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DURING THIS TIME…ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA…THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…AND WESTERN
CUBA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER…THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW
MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO
TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS
ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN…CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A LACK OF
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY…THE FORECAST TRACK
AFTER 72 HR CALLS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED…WITH A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL..THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…ALTHOUGH
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT…THE CURRENT 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36
HR…AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR…IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS…AND THE STORM COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THAT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE…FOR AS OF YET UNDETERMINED REASONS…CALLS FOR LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 HR EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
INHIBITING FACTORS.
IN SUMMARY…ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 15.1N 71.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.8N 73.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.4N 78.1W 60 KT…OVER JAMAICA
48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W 70 KT…OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.0W 80 KT…OVER WESTERN CUBA
96HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 87.0W 90 KT…OVER WATER
120HR VT 31/1200Z 27.0N 88.5W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN”
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/261454.shtml?
If you have broadband and wanna check out some movies of the tropical water vapor and infrared situation the U. Wisconsin CIMSS site is hyper-cool.
I pay particular attention to these two pages:
WAVETRAK-N.Atl. Sector
Global Mosaic Satellite Images
The .fli movies can be downloaded and viewed offline with your quicktime player or you can watch the java animations online.
These are just a couple of the most relevant pages at the CIMSS site.
Also, the navy.mil tropical weather site is good for all the best satellite images. Here is the direct link to the Ernesto page.
LSU’s Earth Scan Lab also has a good page, though some of the animated gifs make my Firefox browser slow to a crawl.
http://www.stormjunkie.com/qcklnk.html
This gent seems to have gathered a lot of useful links and put them on one page.
Yes, that’s a good page. There are lots of link aggregator pages out there. Another good one (though it’s not active anymore and a few of the links are broken) is the Millenium Weather tropical links page. Check out the “Links to Links” tab on that page for more aggregators.
Also, if you hang out at Dr. Jeff Master’s blog at weatherunderground and read through the comments, you’ll eventually get pointed to dozens of good sites. I have about two hundred links I use and about two dozen that I visit regularly when there’s a hurricane in the Gulf.
The National Data Buoy Center website is good for getting info about current windspeeds and wave heights around a hurricane in close to real-time
I always like to keep an eye on the “spaghetti”.
spaghetti1
spaghetti2
spaghetti3
OK, I’ll quit now, but Crown Weather Services has a good one-stop page with text of NHC warnings, satellite photos, tropical analysis maps, etc.
Have fun and stay safe. Keep your eyes on the National Hurricane Center for the official forecasts. They’re still the best. The rest is just for weather junkies.