Jill Derby is on course to making history. With every new poll she’s inching up closer and closer to Republican Dean Heller. The newest Mason Dixon Poll, conducted Sep 19-21 was published by the Las Vegas Review-Journal today and it shows Jill Derby well within the margin of error:
Jill Derby 42%
Dean Heller 45%
MoE 5%
Jill Derby continues to be on an upward trend in this very Republican district that has never before elected a Democrat.
The last poll on this race was done by Research 2000 for the Reno Gazette-Journal. It also had Heller at 45% and Jill Derby at 37% (I’ve written about it here). So this poll is even better.
Here are all the numbers from today’s poll:
DISTRICT MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND
HELLER 45% 49% 41% 14% 68% 45%
DERBY 42% 37% 47% 72% 21% 41%
KROCHUS 1% – 2% – – 3%
BABB – – – – – –
ROSEN – – – – – –
UNDECIDED 12% 14% 10% 14% 11% 11%
The other three are minor party candidates. Jill Derby actually leads handily among women voters. She’s doing better among her own party, which is unusual when you compare it to other polls (like the Governor’s race). More Republicans are voting for the Democrat and are undecided than the other way around. And she’s awfully close among Independents. I think we have ourselves a race here.
Remember that NV-02 is a very Republican district. It encompasses all of Nevada except most of Clark County. The district was created after the 1980 census and has been represented in Congress by Republicans ever since.
This year it’s an open seat because incumbent Jim Gibbons is running for Governor. The Republican candidate won the primary by a very slim margin. Dean Heller was considered to be the strongest Republican candidate. He was elected as Nevada’s Secretary of State three times in a row. His opponents in the primary were the incumbents wife, Dawn Gibbins (who came in third), and Sharron Angle, who was heavily supported by the Club for Growth. Conventional wisdom in Nevada had it that Heller would be tougher to beat than Angle.
However, it seams that Jill Derby, an 18 year University Regent, is giving Dean Heller a run for his money. That might be why Heller is having Bush come to Reno for a fundraiser, something that would not have been necessary in this district in the past. Heller is bruised from the primary and was virtually broke after it.
Interestingly, the NRCC commissioned a poll in NV-02 after the primary. Yet, those numbers were never made public. The numbers could not have been good as both the earlier Research 2000 poll and today’s Mason Dixon poll suggest.
To find out more about Jill Derby, visit her website.
If you would like to contribute to Jill Derby you can do so here.
cross-posted from my local blog Turn Tahoe Blue