In fact, if you can believe this story by David Ignatius, buried on page A21 of today’s Washington Post, Iran is having lots of trouble just getting their centrifuges to work right, much less make highly enriched, “bomb grade” uranium:
Intelligence analysts believe that Iran is encountering technical difficulties in mastering the complex process of uranium enrichment. […]
The problem, according to intelligence officials, is that the centrifuges that are supposed to enrich uranium are overheating. Some are breaking down and must be replaced. As a result, Iran has not ramped up its enrichment effort as quickly as analysts had expected.
(Cont.)
Of course, Mr. Ignatius sees this as a positive sign that diplomacy will have more time to work. After all, why would we go to war over Iran’s nuclear program when it can’t make enough of the right kind of uranium to build even one bomb? Surely this means that George Bush will give Condoleeza Rice enough time to allow her diplomatic efforts to succeed, doesn’t it? Ignatius apparently thinks so:
That’s the real import of these new intelligence findings. Iran and the West still have time to find a diplomatic solution to the nuclear showdown. This genie isn’t quite out of the bottle.
I tend to have a somewhat more cynical, and darker view of this development. In light of the recent stories indicating additional American naval forces have been deployed to the Persian Gulf, and the recent write up in TIME magazine that “Yes Virginia, George Bush really does have a hard on for war with Iran”, I don’t think this leak by unnamed intelligence officials was one authorized by the Bush administration. In fact, I think it more likely that this leak was another in a series of attempts by CIA analysts and other officials to scuttle Bush and Cheney’s war plan before it can be implemented.
Consider this: would Bush really want information about Iran’s difficulties processing uranium to get out when he has spent the last 12 months trying to paint Iran and its nuclear program as the most dangerous threat America now faces in the world? Would he really want to publicize the fact that this dangerous menace can’t keep even keep the small number of centrifuges operated by its nuclear research program from overheating?
Western analysts had expected that the Iranians would move quickly to expand the enrichment effort to meet their near-term goal of having six cascades of 164 centrifuges each, or a total of nearly 1,000 centrifuges. The danger here was technological mastery rather than raw output of uranium. Even with 3,000 centrifuges operating, intelligence analysts estimate that it would take two to three years to produce enough highly enriched uranium for one bomb. Iran’s eventual goal is a massive array of more than 50,000 centrifuges at Natanz.
But problems surfaced this summer. The Aug. 31 IAEA report, marked “Restricted Distribution,” noted that since June, Iran had been feeding uranium into a small 20-centrifuge test cascade “for short periods of time,” and that it had conducted various tests in June, July and August of the initial 164-centrifuge cascade. “The installation of a second 164-machine cascade is proceeding,” the report noted, but it added that Iran planned to test the second cascade in September without injecting uranium.
What happened to slow the expected pace? IAEA analysts have told U.S. and European officials that it appears the centrifuges are overheating when uranium gas is injected. “The Iranians are unable to control higher temperatures, and after a short period they must stop because of higher temperatures. So far they haven’t been able to solve this,” says one Western intelligence official who has been briefed on the IAEA findings. In addition, this official said, some centrifuges “are simply crashing — 10 or so have broken down and must be replaced.”
Got that? Iran would need 3000 centrifuges operating at peak efficiency for 2 to 3 years before it could produce enough highly enriched uranium to make even one bomb. Yet, it can’t even make its piddly 164 centrifuge cascade work well enough to keep it up and running without having to be shut down frequently due to overheating. Even worse, its destroying some of its precious centrifuges in the process.
Not the sort of thing you want people to hear about when you’re trying to make the case that Islamofascist Iran and it’s “Crazy Eddie” President constitute the most dangerous people on the planet right now. Thankfully for the Bush administration, the good editors of the Washington Post have disappeared this story deep within the bowels of today’s paper. The same editors who give front page play to administration officials spinning Iran as a terrorist menace seeking to acquire nukes so it can then wipe Israel off the face of the earth. They report it, but they don’t makes it easy for their readers to find. I guess highlighting “good news” on Iran is not one of their priorities.
Ah yes, our “liberal media” at its best. Thank God for Al Gore’s internets, is all I can say.
