Poll up a chair and listen to the bad and good news… And where we might need to work harder.
Shays-Farrell Poll: A Squeaker
By MARK PAZNIOKAS, Courant Staff Writer
October 3, 2006
The first detailed public poll in lower Fairfield County’s nationally watched congressional race shows Rep. Chris Shays, R-4th District, leading Democrat Diane Farrell 44 percent to 40 percent.
The poll, done for the Advocate of Stamford, found their rematch is surprisingly volatile: 16 percent of voters are undecided – and others report their support as subject to change.
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4% between them… Not too bad.
With 16% undecided… Pretty good considering we all know that undecideds tend to vote for the challenger. (ESPECIALLY when things are this bad in Washington!)
What Farrell might need to do (?better?) below…
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Among likely voters, Shays leads 44 percent to 40 percent. When those who lean toward one candidate are included, Shays is favored, 46 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Support is relatively soft for each candidate, with 20 percent of Shays’ supporters and 15 percent of Farrell’s saying they could change their minds before the Nov. 7 election.
The telephone survey of 753 voters, conducted from Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, indicates that the key for Shays to survive another Farrell challenge is to distance himself from the Bush administration and the House Republican majority.
Nearly two-thirds of voters in the district disapprove of the president’s job performance, with a similar number believing the country is “seriously off on the wrong track.”
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Farrell, the former first selectwoman of Westport, lost by 4 percentage points two years ago. Her campaign on Monday stressed the large undecided vote and general voter discontent as pluses. A large undecided vote often favors a challenger.
“It shows she is well-positioned to win this race. It shows people are deeply unhappy with the direction this country is going,” said Roy Occhiogrosso, a Farrell adviser. “They know Shays represents the status quo.”
Shays supported the decision to invade Iraq, a position that puts him at odds with 55 percent of voters in his district, which includes Bridgeport, Stamford, Norwalk, Greenwich and Fairfield, who now say it was a mistake.
More than one-third of voters were unaware, however, that Shays voted for the war resolution. Voters were even less informed on Shays’ votes on other high-profile Bush initiatives, such as the No Child Left Behind Act.
“Diane Farrell is following the national Democratic playbook in trying to tie Christopher Shays to an unpopular president and an unpopular war,” McDermott said. “But many 4th District voters have yet to make the same connection. They simply don’t blame Shays for the condition of the country.”
Twenty-eight percent of voters said the war was the most important issue, followed by the economy (18 percent) and terrorism (17 percent.)
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Looks pretty good overall for the Farrell campaign. Obviously they need to work harder on getting Shays dark record of support for Bush exposed to the light of day.
x-posted at
My Left Nutmeg
Where Connecticut Dems Scratch that Progressive Itch
