First, some caveats. I don’t trust our voting machines, I don’t want to count our votes before they are stolen, and there is still time for the GOP to change the narrative or Usama bin-Laden to endorse all our candidates again. But, having said that, the news for the Republicans is incredibly bad. A new Newsweek Poll says that Dems lead on every single issue they polled.
Let’s look at the Republican’s white evangelical base. According to a new Pew Research Poll only 57% of this group intends to support a Republican in the midterm elections. That’s down from 78% in the 2004 elections. Adding to this, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll says that Democrats are much more energized than Republicans.
That energy on our side and waning of support on the other is showing up in the election polls…in spades. A new USA Today/Gallup Poll shows some remarkable results.
- In Maryland, Rep. Ben Cardin (D-MD) leads Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) 54% to 39%
- In Missouri, Claire McCaskill (D) beats Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) 48% to 45%, a nine-point swing for McCaskill
- In Virginia, Sen. George Allen (R-VA) tops Jim Webb (D) 48% to 45%
- In New Jersey, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) leads Tom Kean, Jr. (R) by three points, 46% to 43%
- In Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse (D) has opened up a strong lead, beating Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) 50% to 39%
- In Tennessee, Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN) tops Bob Corker (R) 50% to 45%
There were also two noteworthy gubernatorial polls:
- In Maryland, Martin O’Malley (D) bests Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) 53% to 41%
- In Rhode Island, Gov. Donald Carcieri (R) and Lt. Gov. Charles
Fogarty (D) are neck-and-neck, with Carcieri leading 47% to 46%.
A new Rasmussen Poll shows Sherrod Brown opening up a 49%-41% lead on incumbent Senator Mike DeWine.
Jon Tester is faring well in a variety of polls in his race against the corrupt Conrad Burns of Montana.
Just going by the current polls, the Democrats are on track to pick up Senate seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Missouri, and Montana. That would put the chamber at 50-50. This shows the importance of winning Virginia, and also the importance of supporting Ned Lamont. We would not want to rely on Joe Lieberman to caucus with us, and his price (giving him the chair for Homeland Security and Goverment Oversight) is too high. Keep your eyes on Arizona and Nevada. Those races may begin to get closer as the GOP continues to collapse.
In the House, the news is even better.
The Cook Political Report has a slew of ratings changes favoring Democrats:
- CA-04: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- CA-11: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- CO-04: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- FL-13: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- KY-02: Solid Republican to Lean Republican
- MN-06: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- NV-02: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- NY-26: Solid Republican to Toss Up
- NC-08: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- PA-04: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- PA-07: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- PA-10: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- WA-08: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- WI-08: Lean Republican to Toss Up
The Congressional Quarterly has also upgraded a number of these races.
It’s so bad that the National Journal says, “if the Republicans somehow keep control of Congress in the wake of all this, then the Democrats probably will file for Chapter 11 or be sued for political malpractice.”
Democrats are poised to clean up in Connecticut and Pennsylvania. That’s not that surprising. What’s surprising is that the Dems are looking at picking up 3 or more seats in Indiana, seats in rural North Carolina, Pat Robertson’s Virginia Beach, in Idaho and Wyoming, and look strong in several Florida races.
On the Governor’s front, Napolitano looks poised to win re-election in a landslide. Our candidates in Michigan and Rhode Island have gone from dead ducks to dead heats. We’ve opened up a big lead in Maryland. In Wisconsin, Doyle now leads by six points. In Massachusetts, Deval Patrick is crushing his Republican opponent. The only bad news comes from Oregon, where Kulongoski is now trailing in the polls.
I believe that we are going to wind up with 51 seats in the Senate, including Lieberman. We are definitely poised to win the House, possibly in a major landslide. And without any doubt, we are going to pick up several statehouses. That can become important when it comes time to redraw districts after the 2010 census.
Let’s look at the state of the Republican leadership. Bill Frist is retiring, his career in ruins, his legacy one of ineptitude, incompetence, and corruption. The number three man in the Senate, Rick Santorum, is about to be beaten like a drum. Tom DeLay has resigned and lost his seat to the Democrats. He will soon face trial. Dennis Hastert may soon step down as speaker and could conceivably lose his bid for re-election. Regardless, he will no longer be speaker in a Democratic Congress. The Majority Leader, John Boehner, hardly looks any better. The head of the RCCC, Tom Reynolds, is currently behind in the polls.
Other notables: Rudy Guiliani’s star has dimmed as the revelations about his deeply corrupt police chief, Bernie Kerik, have come out. George Allen is facing electoral defeat and a reputation as a racist, rather than thinking about a race for President. Katherine Harris is about to be DRUMMED out of office. Ralph Reed is disgraced. Jack Abramoff is in jail. Karl Rove just fired his assistant. Dick Cheney’s chief of staff is facing trial. Duke Cunningham is in jail. Bob Ney just copped a plea.
And this all before people go to the polls. Here is how Stuart Rotherberg puts it:
After looking at the news for the past 10 days or so, I have to wonder how Democrats can possibly fail in their efforts to take both the House and the Senate.
The national atmospherics don’t merely favor Democrats; they set the stage for a blowout of cosmic proportions next month.
Here’s AgNags:
The page scandal is part of a run of difficult tidings for Republicans, including a stream of bad news out of Iraq, disclosure of an intelligence report that found that the invasion might have worsened the threat of terrorism and Mr. Bush’s continued unpopularity.
In the White House, aides have watched with frustration as campaign appearances by Mr. Bush, in which he hammers Democrats on national security, receive little coverage, subsumed by the Foley case.
The Republicans are in for a world of hurt. But we really need to take the Senate. We need Virginia. We need Lamont. And we need Arizona or Nevada to come into play. If we pull it off, the Republicans will be left decimated. Only John McCain will remain standing. No one else will have any credibility left.
