First, some caveats. I don’t trust our voting machines, I don’t want to count our votes before they are stolen, and there is still time for the GOP to change the narrative or Usama bin-Laden to endorse all our candidates again. But, having said that, the news for the Republicans is incredibly bad. A new Newsweek Poll says that Dems lead on every single issue they polled.
Let’s look at the Republican’s white evangelical base. According to a new Pew Research Poll only 57% of this group intends to support a Republican in the midterm elections. That’s down from 78% in the 2004 elections. Adding to this, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll says that Democrats are much more energized than Republicans.
That energy on our side and waning of support on the other is showing up in the election polls…in spades. A new USA Today/Gallup Poll shows some remarkable results.
- In Maryland, Rep. Ben Cardin (D-MD) leads Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) 54% to 39%
- In Missouri, Claire McCaskill (D) beats Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) 48% to 45%, a nine-point swing for McCaskill
- In Virginia, Sen. George Allen (R-VA) tops Jim Webb (D) 48% to 45%
- In New Jersey, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) leads Tom Kean, Jr. (R) by three points, 46% to 43%
- In Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse (D) has opened up a strong lead, beating Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) 50% to 39%
- In Tennessee, Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN) tops Bob Corker (R) 50% to 45%
There were also two noteworthy gubernatorial polls:
- In Maryland, Martin O’Malley (D) bests Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) 53% to 41%
- In Rhode Island, Gov. Donald Carcieri (R) and Lt. Gov. Charles
Fogarty (D) are neck-and-neck, with Carcieri leading 47% to 46%.
A new Rasmussen Poll shows Sherrod Brown opening up a 49%-41% lead on incumbent Senator Mike DeWine.
Jon Tester is faring well in a variety of polls in his race against the corrupt Conrad Burns of Montana.
Just going by the current polls, the Democrats are on track to pick up Senate seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Missouri, and Montana. That would put the chamber at 50-50. This shows the importance of winning Virginia, and also the importance of supporting Ned Lamont. We would not want to rely on Joe Lieberman to caucus with us, and his price (giving him the chair for Homeland Security and Goverment Oversight) is too high. Keep your eyes on Arizona and Nevada. Those races may begin to get closer as the GOP continues to collapse.
In the House, the news is even better.
The Cook Political Report has a slew of ratings changes favoring Democrats:
- CA-04: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- CA-11: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- CO-04: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- FL-13: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- KY-02: Solid Republican to Lean Republican
- MN-06: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- NV-02: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- NY-26: Solid Republican to Toss Up
- NC-08: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- PA-04: Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- PA-07: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- PA-10: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- WA-08: Lean Republican to Toss Up
- WI-08: Lean Republican to Toss Up
The Congressional Quarterly has also upgraded a number of these races.
It’s so bad that the National Journal says, “if the Republicans somehow keep control of Congress in the wake of all this, then the Democrats probably will file for Chapter 11 or be sued for political malpractice.”
Democrats are poised to clean up in Connecticut and Pennsylvania. That’s not that surprising. What’s surprising is that the Dems are looking at picking up 3 or more seats in Indiana, seats in rural North Carolina, Pat Robertson’s Virginia Beach, in Idaho and Wyoming, and look strong in several Florida races.
On the Governor’s front, Napolitano looks poised to win re-election in a landslide. Our candidates in Michigan and Rhode Island have gone from dead ducks to dead heats. We’ve opened up a big lead in Maryland. In Wisconsin, Doyle now leads by six points. In Massachusetts, Deval Patrick is crushing his Republican opponent. The only bad news comes from Oregon, where Kulongoski is now trailing in the polls.
I believe that we are going to wind up with 51 seats in the Senate, including Lieberman. We are definitely poised to win the House, possibly in a major landslide. And without any doubt, we are going to pick up several statehouses. That can become important when it comes time to redraw districts after the 2010 census.
Let’s look at the state of the Republican leadership. Bill Frist is retiring, his career in ruins, his legacy one of ineptitude, incompetence, and corruption. The number three man in the Senate, Rick Santorum, is about to be beaten like a drum. Tom DeLay has resigned and lost his seat to the Democrats. He will soon face trial. Dennis Hastert may soon step down as speaker and could conceivably lose his bid for re-election. Regardless, he will no longer be speaker in a Democratic Congress. The Majority Leader, John Boehner, hardly looks any better. The head of the RCCC, Tom Reynolds, is currently behind in the polls.
Other notables: Rudy Guiliani’s star has dimmed as the revelations about his deeply corrupt police chief, Bernie Kerik, have come out. George Allen is facing electoral defeat and a reputation as a racist, rather than thinking about a race for President. Katherine Harris is about to be DRUMMED out of office. Ralph Reed is disgraced. Jack Abramoff is in jail. Karl Rove just fired his assistant. Dick Cheney’s chief of staff is facing trial. Duke Cunningham is in jail. Bob Ney just copped a plea.
And this all before people go to the polls. Here is how Stuart Rotherberg puts it:
After looking at the news for the past 10 days or so, I have to wonder how Democrats can possibly fail in their efforts to take both the House and the Senate.
The national atmospherics don’t merely favor Democrats; they set the stage for a blowout of cosmic proportions next month.
Here’s AgNags:
The page scandal is part of a run of difficult tidings for Republicans, including a stream of bad news out of Iraq, disclosure of an intelligence report that found that the invasion might have worsened the threat of terrorism and Mr. Bush’s continued unpopularity.
In the White House, aides have watched with frustration as campaign appearances by Mr. Bush, in which he hammers Democrats on national security, receive little coverage, subsumed by the Foley case.
The Republicans are in for a world of hurt. But we really need to take the Senate. We need Virginia. We need Lamont. And we need Arizona or Nevada to come into play. If we pull it off, the Republicans will be left decimated. Only John McCain will remain standing. No one else will have any credibility left.
Also available in orange.
McCain has credibility?
Capitulation on torture, toeing the administration line on Iraq… McCain might not be scandal-ridden, but when I think of Republicans with credibility I think John Warner or Chuck Grassley.
It’s sad when a member of the Keating 5 is the best you’ve got, but he really will be the only Republican of any stature and name recognition that is left.
Had to wikipedia “Keating 5”. Happened when I was 5 years old.
4 weeks, an eternity.
After 2 stolen elections, I think all those intending to vote Dem should do so by absentee ballots. High, very high, the stakes.
GOPs in hiding? (H/T: Josh Marshall) Jeb Bush on his way to a Ricky Santorum fundraiser last night had to be ushered into a T-station supply closet until the protesters left.
Four weeks is an eternity. Rethugs backs are against the wall. Shrub, Darth Vader & DumbRum can’t afford anything like HEARINGS to more fully expose their dirt.
They will hit back. Hard. Be prepared. Don’t be lulled into any self-satisfaction over this.
And in the case of Harold Ford & Deval Patrick…don’t count those eggs before they hatch. Doug Wilder barely won his race in Virginia–it was by less than a 1/2 percent, IIRC.
It’s not impossible, I know. It’s significant that the first state to ELECT an African-American was Virginia, so there’s hope. I know there’s IL, who did it twice w/ Carol Mosely Braun and Barack Obama, though I wouldn’t call Alan Keyes competition.
Just sayin’.
So stay focused. No let up. Act like we’re 10 points down.
The desperation level of the lies involved in Foleygate and the sheer gall to try to blame victimized children and Democrats for a Republican pedophile molesting Republican teenagers has got me scared about Election Day. Lying to cover up another stolen election is comparatively nothing on the scale of arrogance that the blaming of teenage kids for the pedophile that tried to molest them was.
I can’t call for a national strike if they steal another election. I simply don’t matter enough in the grand scheme of things for anyone to listen to me. Someone more important and more well known than me is going to have to make that call for a national strike if the 2006 election is stolen.
Someone needs to step up and lead the effort to start making plans for a national strike if the neo-cons against steal control of Congress in the 2006 election.
Let’s get real.
The Cons are not going to give up Congress in a fair fight.
They are going to suppress every vote, spoil every vote, flip or hack every vote, and litigate every vote they can to make it look like they have some legitimate victory.
Make no mistake, they will not relinquish power legally.
If we don’t plan to shut down the country on November 8, we will not regain the House of Representatives or the Senate.
We need to take over highways, buildings, cities and towns, radio and tv stations, newspapers, and telecom facilities.
Make them bring the National Guard back from Iraq. My money is on the National Guardsmen coming home and joining in the strike for the people.
Anybody who does not vote and does not participate in the strike should be blacklisted.
Impeach BushCo and close the Pentagon immediately, don’t wait for the new Congress to take over in January.
Action. Now.
I knew the neo-cons were more than willing to steal close elctions, but FoleyGate has convince me the neo-cons are ready and willing to blatantly steal an election everyone knows they had no chance of winning. If they willing to step in front of a national news media and blame Republican teenagers for the Republican adult that tried to molest them, they are ready and wiling to do anything.
I’m not certain the neo-cons are going steal control of Congress again in the 2006 election, but the probabilities of the neo-cons stealing the 2006 election just spiked dramatically upward.
We need to start making plans.
I think they know they can’t get away with it twice — and I think that the Diebold folks know it too. They’re not going to risk criminal charges filed against them for election tampering; like all humans, they’re out for their own self-interest.
Maybe I’m just being naive, but I think there’s a change in the wind…
I think so too, Cali.
However, I’m not betting against them taking this one off to improve their methods, and storm back in the near future.
When you can steal elections anytime, you don’t have to steal them everytime.
you’re not naive, but think about it like this.
If I want to tamper with the election all I have to do is write the code and then infect a machine. The virus will spread from machine to machine before election day, as people use their adminstrator card on an infected machine and then pass it along.
No one will know if there isn’t a paper trail. They’ll either have to do the election over, or accept the results.
Who has the motive? Everyone has a motive. Who has the skills? Thousands of people have the skills. Who has the access? Anyone that has access to a machine prior to election day.
Diebold has nothing to do with it.
BooMan, do you know if anything came of this initiative?
According to the Committee on House Administration website it was introduced (as H.R. 6187), but I don’t know if that means to the committee or to the full House?
September 26, 2006, Mr. Holt introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on House Administration.
we’re getting a paper trail in California — the new Sequoia Systems machines worked pretty well from what I could tell in June, and there is a printed receipt that the voter can view.
Thought about working as a poll worker this year, but unfortunately I’ve got classes on Tuesday this quarter…
These people just blamed their own teenagers for a child molestor.
If you measure gall and arrogance of neo-con actions, stealing elections is a drop in the bucket compared to what they did this week when they blamed their own teenagers for the acts of a child molestor.
Look at what they have done this week to stay in power.
I don’t think they’s just steal the election. I think there would be some big news (ie, captured Osama or war with Iran) that would take over the narrative and the news media would spin it all as favorable to Republicans. THEN they’s steal the election and everyone would think the tide turned. No one would investigage and they’d get away with it again.