It looks like North Korea may have set off a nuclear explosion referred to as a ‘test’. Seismic data confirms that something happened. If this is true, I am truly saddened to hear it. I am a little concerned for the safety of Americans. I am much more concerned for the future of North Koreans…and South Koreans. Josh Marshall has an adequate run-down on the history of American diplomacy towards North Korea, but that is not really my focus. I’m not as much interested in pointing fingers about who is to blame, as I am in trying to assess what it all means. North Korea has a failed ideology. South Korea has struggled in the fifty-three years since the armistice was signed. They have struggled with military dictatorships and oppression. But they came through it with a vibrant society and economy. We probably all own some piece of electronic equipment that was developed or manufactured in South Korea. The people of the north deserve better. The Korean people deserve to be united, just as the Germans were. It would be nice if we could someday bring our troops home from the peninsula. North Korea’s actions make all of those things seem more remote and more fraught with danger.
And the threat of nuclear proliferation from North Korea is very real. They have few sources of revenue. The biggest nuclear threats remain elsewhere. The chance that we or Russia will mistake a flock of geese for a preemptive strike is still real. The chances of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan are much too high. And Israel might use nuclear weapons if they feel their existence is at risk. Compared to these threats, the North Korean threat is comparatively minor. But nothing is minor when it comes to the use of nuclear weaponry.
It’s a sad day. I am willing to say that the Bush policy has failed. I am not so sure that the Clinton strategy might have succeeded. North Korea was always one of our toughest foreign policy challenges. They appear to be a nuclear power now. Even prior to this test, they were already so militarily formidable that they could destroy Seoul in a few hours with an artillery barrage.
Interestingly, Kim Philby is more responsible for our current predicament than any other single man.
