The Republicans are starting to prepare the narrative for some pretty big losses. In the Washington Post Jim VandeHei and Chris Cillizza run down the coming carnage.
Republican campaign officials said yesterday that they expect to lose at least seven House seats and as many as 30 in the Nov. 7 midterm elections, as a result of sustained violence in Iraq and the page scandal involving former GOP representative Mark Foley.
I’ll go along with the ‘sustained violence in Iraq’, but the same article goes on to say, “Democrats said internal polls show that the fallout from the Foley scandal is confined to half a dozen races.” A ‘half dozen races’ will not explain a 30-seat net loss of seats. The most important reason that the Republicans are in trouble is captured in this graf.
Unlike in most elections, when both parties defend several seats, Democrats are favored to win every seat they now occupy and are spending money to defend only a few. As a result, Democrats are not as vulnerable to the GOP’s campaign finance advantage in the final weeks as they have been in past campaigns.
We are entirely on offense, which is a total turn about from 2004. Consider this, from Foxes in the Henhouse:
John Kerry conceded the equivalent of twenty-seven states and 227 electoral votes to George Bush. That is 84 percent of the electoral votes Bush needed to win, meaning that he had to get only 43 of the remaining electoral votes in the remaining twenty-three states to become president. What was Kerry thinking?
That’s right, Kerry didn’t even bother to campaign in twenty-seven states. But we are poised to win three seats in Indiana alone. We are looking at winning seats in a lot of red states, including Ohio, Virginia, Texas, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. Maybe it is the 50-State strategy, or maybe it is just a reflection of how badly the Republicans have screwed up the country.
We can’t take anything for granted…especially the voting machinery. But we are on the verge of a big victory in the House. And it can’t come soon enough. And, yes, I expect them to investigate the hell out of this administration and clean up the rot on Capitol Hill.
