Is this bravado, or is it something more sinister?

Amid widespread panic in the Republican establishment about the coming midterm elections, there are two people whose confidence about GOP prospects strikes even their closest allies as almost inexplicably upbeat: President Bush and his top political adviser, Karl Rove.

Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are bracing for losses of 25 House seats or more. But party operatives say Rove is predicting that, at worst, Republicans will lose only 8 to 10 seats — shy of the 15-seat threshold that would cede control to Democrats for the first time since the 1994 elections and probably hobble the balance of Bush’s second term.

In the Senate, Rove and associates believe, a Democratic victory would require the opposition to “run the table,” as one official put it, to pick up the necessary six seats — a prospect the White House seems to regard as nearly inconceivable.

I understand why Bush and Rove want to project an aura of confidence. If the GOP looks like a losing party headed for huges losses, it could be become a self-inforcing perception. They know that midterm elections are about base turnout, and they know that their base is much less energized this time around. They need to try to keep up hope and morale. I understand that. But…

They keep pushing this mythical 72-hour turn-out miracle, which could just be a cover for explaining the ability to consistently outperform pre-election polling. For example:

The RNC is also planning another big get-out-the-vote drive in the final three days before the elections. Rove believes that many of the polls in individual House and Senate races understate what he expects to be a GOP advantage in turnout, according to one party strategist who has heard him discuss the midterms.

I’ve got to be honest. I don’t like the sound of that. That kind of rhetoric seems to be setting the groundwork to steal votes. What are we going to do if the GOP defies the polls all over the country, or in key Senate races, and they try to explain that have mastered the art of turnout?

I’m putting this down here now, for the record. Anything fishy happens on election day, remember, you heard me warning about this. What do you think?

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