What if …?
Two little words. Two little words which I fear not enough progressives, liberals, Democrats, and other assorted lefties are considering in the wake of so much pre-election optimism, that finally, this year, at long last, the Republican party will lose its monopoly on power, and Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, as well.
And it’s true that polls show Democratic candidates stand in their strongest position in decades vis-Ã -vis their GOP counterparts. It’s also true that Bush has the lowest approval ratings of his presidency, that Republicans are awash in scandals, both financial and sexual, and that the American public no longer believes that Republican control of our government is a good thing for either our domestic or our foreign policies.
I admit, all things being equal, we should be looking at a Democratic tidal wave of a victory on November 7th. We should be, but … I fear we won’t see anything of the kind the day after this election. Because all things are not equal. Far from it.
(cont.)
So, why am I sounding a warning in the face of so much positive news for Democrats this year? Because our elections are no longer secure in this country, that’s why. Anyone who still believes that they are has been fooling themselves. I sincerely believe that the last three elections have been rigged in one way or another. And there is literally a mountain of evidence, both historical and current, to support my contention.
Past
Election results that were mathematically improbable have become routine occurrences over the last 6 years, and in almost every instance those improbable results have favored Republicans. Exit polls that were considered the standard for predicting election results over the past 50 years, the same exit polls we relied upon to allege election fraud in the Ukraine, have suddenly become deeply flawed and inaccurate predictors of elections in the United States virtually overnight. Reversals of fortune on election day, always in favor of Republicans, have become de rigueur.
Sworn testimony has been given by former employees of electronic voting machine companies that, in at least one state, those machines were tampered with prior to the 2002 election at the direction of company officials. Studies have shown how easy it is to compromise the current crop of electronic voting machines which will be used this Fall by up to 40% of the electorate. Numerous security flaws regarding these machines have been well documented.
Of course, unverifiable voting machines are not the only way Republicans have disenfranchised voters over the past two election cycles. As many of you know, I witnessed first hand in Cleveland on Election Day, 2004, the lengths to which Republican operatives would go to suppress Democratic voters:
Everything I read in Kennedy’s story I saw or heard about from my fellow volunteers that day: the long lines, the broken machines, the refusal of the BOE [Board of Elections] to respond, outrageous election challenges by GOP operatives, cars with bullhorns cruising minority neighborhoods warning people that police would arrest people who owed past due child [support] or parking tickets, names purged from voting rolls, last minute changes to polling places, refusals to hand our provisional ballots, violations of court orders prohibiting the use of GOP generated lists to deny the vote to legitimate residents, the banning of election monitors, the lockdown of some precincts while the vote was being counted, ballots being transported in unsealed containers by GOP party officials to where they were to be counted, etc. etc. etc. We took numerous affidavits of people regarding these and other abuses, argued with election official (sometimes successful, sometimes not) to stop unlawful practices such as requiring photo id for Spanish speaking and/or Hispanic looking voters, and documenting as well as we could the “atrocities.”
And lets not forget the fraudulent voter registration work of Nathan Sproul in 2004, whose company, financed by the Republican National Committee, took voter registrations from people in several states, and then literally threw those forms in the trash if they registered as Democrats. That’s about as low as you can get.
Present
These Republican efforts at voter suppression have only intensified as we draw closer to the 2006 elections. Voter registration has been made more difficult in many states, and numerous purges of voters in Democratic districts have occurred across the country. One example of this can be seen in this recommended diary at Daily Kos, entitled “HOLY MOTHER OF GOD – Am I Being PURGED!?” in which the diarist documents the loss of his voter registration in California this year, despite the fact he re-registered this July. Here are some more:
Meet Prentice, a registered Democrat who served in the Navy overseas from 2003 to 2005. When he showed up in his San Bernardino precinct to vote in the November 2005 California Special Election he was turned away. The reason according to the poll worker: “He was registered to vote from a false address.”
“I was shocked to learn I was listed among voters registered in Jacksonville, Florida,” said Prentice whose mother and sister live near the Jacksonville Naval Air Station. “San Bernardino has always been my registered address. I never registered in Florida,” said Prentice. Prentice says months after the 2005 election he was contacted by news reporters from the BBC Television Newsnight (UK). He says it was then he learned of so-called “caging lists” and other confidential data surrounding an October 2004 campaign directed by GOP party chiefs which sought to challenge the ballots of tens of thousands of voters in the last presidential election. He says the spreadsheets indicate most of the letters were sent to African-American majority zip codes. [LINK]
Last month the Riverside Press Enterprise reported the political party affiliation of dozens of Inland voters was switched to Republican without their knowledge during recent GOP-funded registration drives. Investigations by the state and the San Bernardino County district attorney’s office into suspicious voter registrations have yet to produce any criminal charges. The PE reported registered Democrats were sent GOP absentee ballots and party campaign materials and were allowed to vote only for Republicans.
[…} State officials are also investigating voter registration fraud in Orange County. Earlier this year, the Orange County Register reported that more than 100 voters there had been re-registered as Republicans without their knowledge. [LINK]
This year, Florida adopted new rules for voter registration drives that were so onerous — and carried such draconian punishments for mistakes — that the League of Women Voters of Florida announced that for the first time in 67 years it would not register voters.
Election officials are still wrongly purging eligible voters from the rolls. Four years after Harris’ error-filled purge of felons, her successor as Florida secretary of state developed another error-filled felon list. She abandoned it only after news media pointed out that, oddly enough, it included 22,000 blacks, a group that votes heavily Democratic, but just 61 Hispanics, a group that tends to vote Republican in Florida. [LINK]
As the New York Times recently described these voter suppression efforts by Republicans in an editorial titled “Block the Vote” …
In a country that spends so much time extolling the glories of democracy, it’s amazing how many elected officials go out of their way to discourage voting. States are adopting rules that make it hard, and financially perilous, for nonpartisan groups to register new voters. They have adopted new rules for maintaining voter rolls that are likely to throw off many eligible voters, and they are imposing unnecessarily tough ID requirements.
Florida recently reached a new low when it actually bullied the League of Women Voters into stopping its voter registration efforts in the state. The Legislature did this by adopting a law that seems intended to scare away anyone who wants to run a voter registration drive. Since registration drives are particularly important for bringing poor people, minority groups and less educated voters into the process, the law appears to be designed to keep such people from voting.
In Washington, a new law prevents people from voting if the secretary of state fails to match the information on their registration form with government databases. There are many reasons that names, Social Security numbers and other data may not match, including typing mistakes. The state is supposed to contact people whose data does not match, but the process is too tilted against voters. […]
These three techniques — discouraging registration drives, purging eligible voters and imposing unreasonable ID requirements — keep showing up. Colorado recently imposed criminal penalties on volunteers who slip up in registration drives. Georgia, one of several states to adopt harsh new voter ID laws, had its law struck down by a federal court.
Protecting the integrity of voting is important, but many of these rules seem motivated by a partisan desire to suppress the vote, and particular kinds of voters, rather than to make sure that those who are entitled to vote — and only those who are entitled — do so. The right to vote is fundamental, and Congress and state legislatures should not pass laws that put an unnecessary burden on it. If they do, courts should strike them down.
Purging the voter rolls. Making it more difficult to register new voters. And to top it all off, racist actions like this one: sending out letters improperly warning Latinos that their votes may be illegal:
Approximately 14,000 Hispanic Democratic voters in Orange County, CA recently received a Spanish-language letter warning them to stay away from the polls:
Be advised that if your residence in the United States is illegal or if you are an immigrant, voting in a federal election is a crime that can result in incarceration, and possible deportation for voting without the right to do so. …
Not like in Mexico, here there is no benefit to voting. In the United States there is no registration card to vote. Therefore, it is useless and dangerous to vote in any election if you are not a citizen of the United States.
Do not pay attention to a politician who may try to tell you otherwise. They only care about their own interests.
This letter is a deceptive ploy to suppress Hispanic voter turn-out. Immigrants who are naturalized U.S. citizens can legally vote. The letter has now been traced back to the campaign of Tan D. Nguyen, a Republican challenger to Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA).
Future
Unlike the legendary Cassandra, I can’t really predict the future. But I can lay out a possible scenario in which Republicans, once again, fix the election and retain control of Congress. Here’s how it might happen:
In the days leading up to the election, new polls are released suddenly showing movement toward the Republicans among likely voters. This will be attributed to the GOP’s campaign tactic of tough talk about what would happen if Democrats should gain control of Congress (we are already seeing the ground work for this narrative being laid).
The media will also play up the “horse race” aspect of the election, especially as it relates to the amount of money being spent by Republicans. All signs will point to a GOP resurgence. We will continue to be regaled with the tale of the fabulous Republican Get Out the Vote machine, and told how efficient and effective it is compared to Democratic efforts. Stories about the issues (Iraq, health care, global warming, etc.) will be ignored, except with regards to stories on terrorism, North Korea or Iran, which we will be told strengthen the Republicans, and weaken Democratic chances.
On election day, the same old crapola will happen that happened in the last several elections. Long lines at Democratic polling places, and short lines in GOP strongholds. Many democratic voters will find themselves not listed on the voting rolls, despite the fact they have been registered for years. Thousands of people who thought they were registered will be forced to vote on provisional ballots, if they are allowed to vote at all.
In the late afternoon, someone in the media will report on how many evangelicals are voting in the suburbs and exurbs, while reports on difficulties at Democratic precincts will be ignored or discounted as “unfounded rumors.” The networks, without the benefit of exit polling this year, will simply rely on statements from the various campaigns. The overall tone of the reporting, however, will be one of quiet Republican optimism and uneasy Democratic concern.
After the polls closed, the initial results will show unexpected GOP strength, as the numbers of recorded votes appear to be in complete opposition to the most recent polls. Some in the media will wonder about this, but by an overwhelming margin, their concerns will be dismissed as mere “conspiracy theories.” Most anchors and other talking heads will attribute it to faulty polling techniques, or to early voting by Republicans. Perhaps the unexpected turnout and show of strength by the Conservative Christian base will be asserted as the reason, or fear of terrorist attacks if democrats win, or … some other equally plausible sounding explanation will be offered for why, despite the country’s attitude toward Bush and the Iraq War, despite the scandals and corruption, and despite Katrina, Republicans once again have won enough of races to hold onto both the Senate and the House. It doesn’t really matter. There are always good reasons for why Republicans win.
And just like last time reports of voter irregularities will be dismissed, or played down, or simply not reported upon at all. Once again we will engage in a series of internecine bashing of Democratic candidates and Democratic campaign strategies. Rahm Emmanuel will blame Howard Dean, who in turn will blame the Democratic establishment. Liberal hawks will blame the antiwar movement. Moderates will blame feminists and gays and the radical leftist fringe of the party. Talk of the possibility of another stolen election will be suppressed, derided and anyone who raises such issues will be ostracized in official democratic Party circles.
And Bush will claim another mandate from the American People.
Thinking the Unthinkable
There is a good reason why we need to be talking up this possibility (and I hope it is only a possibility that doesn’t turn into our actuality). In the last election, despite what we were told, the Democratic Party was too afraid to fight for our votes. They were cowed by the media and Republicans into not challenging the election results. Part of that was timidity, but an equally large part was simple lack of preparation on their part. Kerry talked a good game, but when it came time to put up or shut up, he shut up.
Why? Why did Democrats surrender our democracy? Because no one had prepared the media or the American Public sufficiently for what happened: a stolen election. Accurately or not, the media perceived then, and continues to perceive now, that the charge of GOP election fraud is an issue of little concern among mainstream Democrats. Instead, they see it as an issue of a “lunatic fringe” who are prone to conspiracy theories and unable to accept the fact that the “Nation” is more in tune with Republican values.
As we know, poll after poll shows this is a canard. Public opinion is more in line with Democratic values and policies on a whole host of issues, including health care, civil liberties, Iraq, the “War on Terror”, and even those supposed bugaboos of the left, abortion and gay rights. The corporate media doesn’t report this, though, either because they are lazy, or they are told to ignore these facts by their bosses. We get the conventional wisdom beat into our heads day after day that Republicans are more in tune with the country despite all the corruption and monumental incompetence they have demonstrated as our leaders over the last 6 years. This media narrative has begun to change only slightly over the course of the last year, and it has been a reluctant, grudging change at that.
So, it really isn’t surprising that Democrats holding elective office (as advised by their triangulating consultants) do not feel comfortable charging Republicans with massive election fraud, even when the evidence is overwhelming. They do not trust the media to report the truth. Indeed, they expect the media to be slanted against them. Thus, most of them will huddle down in their bunkers, hoping to preserve their safe seats while dreaming of better days which will never come so long as they refuse to state the truth and fight for our democracy.
And that is my point, really. As long as we deny the obvious, and our leaders refuse to discuss what we all know to be true, we will never have any hope of changing the outcome. republicans will continue to win elections, excuses will continue to be made, and the democratic Party will sink ever further into irrelevance.
I hope this prediction of mine is proved wrong, spectacularly wrong even, this November 8th. I’d be more than happy to eat the very words I am typing this minute, declare myself a dunce of the first order, and parade the acknowledgement of my complete idiocy for all to mock with glee. However, for that to happen, Democrats must win control of at least one of the houses of Congress. Despite all the rampant, at times irrational, exuberance Democrats are exhibiting these days, I won’t believe that will happen until I see it with my own two eyes.
And, considering the recent past, doesn’t it only make sense to have a strategy in place in the event the election is stolen again by the Republicans? I’d like to think the Democrats are prepared for that eventuality, but, in all honesty, I don’t think they are. A large part of the reason for that is because our Democratic officials are hesitant to discuss the very real possibility of election fraud this November. Unless we can get them over that reluctance soon, Democrats will be woefully unprepared, if (yes it still an “if” in my mind) the Republicans do it to us again.
“[F]ool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.“ Let’s not be fooled again.
