It is starting to look like will have a 50-50 Senate. While the races are starting to solidify in the blue column in Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, Montana, and Missouri, we are not getting over the hump in Virginia and Tennessee. I am not thrilled with either Harold Ford, Jr. or Jim Webb. I haven’t advocated for their election or made any efforts for them. But we desperately need one of them to win.
Looking at the internals of the polling in Tennessee, I can see why Harold Ford is running such a belligerent campaign.
Tennessee remains relatively hospitable turf for Republicans. The state gives Bush a 46 percent approval rating, among his highest. Just 34 percent think that House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., should resign because of the House page sex scandal, the lowest among battleground states.
Iraq is the top issue, and Iraq voters support Ford by a ratio of better than 3-1. Yet 44 percent approve of Bush’s handling of Iraq. And those who support the president’s policy on Iraq prefer Corker by 84-7 percent.
Race is an undercurrent in Tennessee. Ford would be the first African-American ever elected to the Senate from the South. He leads among African-Americans by 86-4 percent; Corker leads among whites by 53-36 percent.
Campare these numbers with Rhode Island.
Rhode Island is poison to Republicans this year, with the lowest approval rating for President Bush (22 percent) and Congress (15 percent) of any battleground state. It also is the most tuned in to the Iraq war, with 36 percent calling it their top issue.
A whopping 74 percent of Rhode Island voters want to get troops out of Iraq, and they support Whitehouse.
Even Chafee’s much-publicized distance from Bush and the war aren’t enough to survive in that environment. He trails among Iraq voters, health-care voters and those worried about a terrorist attack.
We really do live in two different countries.
