A strange thing is happening in Ohio, New York, and Pennsylvania. In all three states there is a governor’s race and a Senate race. In all three states those elections are beginning to look like total blowouts.
New York:
Governor:
Eliot Spitzer: 70%
John Faso: 22%
Source: Marist
Senate:
Hillary Clinton: 64%
John Spencer: 27%
Source: Quinnipiac
Pennsylvania:
Governor:
Ed Rendell: 56%
Lynn Swann: 35%
Source: Mason-Dixon
Senate:
Bob Casey Jr.: 51%
Ricky Santorum: 39%
Source:Mason-Dixon
Ohio:
Governor:
Ted Strickland: 62%
Kenny Blackwell: 32%
Source: SurveyUSA
Senate:
Sherrod Brown: 57%
Mikey DeWine: 37%
Source: SurveyUSA
None of these elections are remotely competitive. There is no reason for a Republican to work on GOTV or even to bother showing up to vote in any of these three states. The only reason they might have to participate in the November 7th elections is if they have some special fondness for their Congressperson. And given that the American people are giving Congress about a 15% approval rating, you have to wonder how many Congresspeople are inspiring loyalty this time around.
We can expect a major depression of Republican turnout in all three states. And that is very significant considering how many races are considered toss-ups in New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
Let’s look at them.
New York:
Lean Dem
NY-24 Meier(R) Acuri(D)
NY-26 Reynolds(R) Davis(D)
Lean Rep
NY-03 King(R) Mejias(D)
NY-19 Kelly(R) Hall(D)
NY-20 Sweeney(R) Gillibrand(D)
NY-25 Walsh(R) Maffei(D)
NY-29 Kuhl(R) Massa(D)
Pennsylvania:
Lean Dem
PA-07 Weldon(R) Sestak(D)
PA-10 Sherwood(R) Carney(D)
Toss-up / Lean Dem
PA-06 Gerlach(R) Murphy(D)
Toss-Up
PA-08 Fitzpatrick(R) Murphy(D)
Likely Rep
PA-04 Hart(R) Altmire(D)
Ohio:
Toss-up/Lean Dem
OH-15 Pryce(R) Kilroy(D)
OH-18 Padgett(R) Space(D)
Toss-up/Lean Rep
OH-01 Chabot(R) Cranley(D)
OH-02 Schmidt(R) Wulsin(D)
I predict that we will win all, or almost all of these races. That’s 16 races from just these three states. And I think Stu Rothenberg is right. We are going to win somewhere between 45-60 seats in Congress.
With the national environment being as it is – and given the last round of redistricting, which limits possible Democratic gains – Republicans probably are at risk to lose as few as 45 seats and as many as 60 seats, based on historical results. Given how the national mood compares to previous wave years and to the GOP’s 15-seat House majority, Democratic gains almost certainly would fall to the upper end of that range.
The paucity of competitive districts limits Republican risk, but how much? Unfortunately, I don’t have an answer. But if redistricting cuts that kind of wave by half, Democrats would gain between 22 and 30 seats next month. And if the new districts slice Democratic gains by a smaller but still significant one-third, Democrats would pick up from 30 to 45 seats.
What are your predictions? I know, I am an optimist, and Steven D’s alter ego 😉 If it were not for good showings by GOP gubernatorial candidates in Florida and Connecticut the blowout could be even worse.
