A strange thing is happening in Ohio, New York, and Pennsylvania. In all three states there is a governor’s race and a Senate race. In all three states those elections are beginning to look like total blowouts.
New York:
Governor:
Eliot Spitzer: 70%
John Faso: 22%
Source: Marist
Senate:
Hillary Clinton: 64%
John Spencer: 27%
Source: Quinnipiac
Pennsylvania:
Governor:
Ed Rendell: 56%
Lynn Swann: 35%
Source: Mason-Dixon
Senate:
Bob Casey Jr.: 51%
Ricky Santorum: 39%
Source:Mason-Dixon
Ohio:
Governor:
Ted Strickland: 62%
Kenny Blackwell: 32%
Source: SurveyUSA
Senate:
Sherrod Brown: 57%
Mikey DeWine: 37%
Source: SurveyUSA
None of these elections are remotely competitive. There is no reason for a Republican to work on GOTV or even to bother showing up to vote in any of these three states. The only reason they might have to participate in the November 7th elections is if they have some special fondness for their Congressperson. And given that the American people are giving Congress about a 15% approval rating, you have to wonder how many Congresspeople are inspiring loyalty this time around.
We can expect a major depression of Republican turnout in all three states. And that is very significant considering how many races are considered toss-ups in New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
Let’s look at them.
New York:
Lean Dem
NY-24 Meier(R) Acuri(D)
NY-26 Reynolds(R) Davis(D)
Lean Rep
NY-03 King(R) Mejias(D)
NY-19 Kelly(R) Hall(D)
NY-20 Sweeney(R) Gillibrand(D)
NY-25 Walsh(R) Maffei(D)
NY-29 Kuhl(R) Massa(D)
Pennsylvania:
Lean Dem
PA-07 Weldon(R) Sestak(D)
PA-10 Sherwood(R) Carney(D)
Toss-up / Lean Dem
PA-06 Gerlach(R) Murphy(D)
Toss-Up
PA-08 Fitzpatrick(R) Murphy(D)
Likely Rep
PA-04 Hart(R) Altmire(D)
Ohio:
Toss-up/Lean Dem
OH-15 Pryce(R) Kilroy(D)
OH-18 Padgett(R) Space(D)
Toss-up/Lean Rep
OH-01 Chabot(R) Cranley(D)
OH-02 Schmidt(R) Wulsin(D)
I predict that we will win all, or almost all of these races. That’s 16 races from just these three states. And I think Stu Rothenberg is right. We are going to win somewhere between 45-60 seats in Congress.
With the national environment being as it is – and given the last round of redistricting, which limits possible Democratic gains – Republicans probably are at risk to lose as few as 45 seats and as many as 60 seats, based on historical results. Given how the national mood compares to previous wave years and to the GOP’s 15-seat House majority, Democratic gains almost certainly would fall to the upper end of that range.
The paucity of competitive districts limits Republican risk, but how much? Unfortunately, I don’t have an answer. But if redistricting cuts that kind of wave by half, Democrats would gain between 22 and 30 seats next month. And if the new districts slice Democratic gains by a smaller but still significant one-third, Democrats would pick up from 30 to 45 seats.
What are your predictions? I know, I am an optimist, and Steven D’s alter ego 😉 If it were not for good showings by GOP gubernatorial candidates in Florida and Connecticut the blowout could be even worse.
“None of these elections are remotely competitive. There is no reason for a Republican to work on GOTV or even to bother showing up to vote in any of these three states.”
There is a very intense race on the state government level which may increase the voter participation locally.
Woohoo blue New York!!! I have my own little October surprise for Ms.Kelly which I’ll post about at the appropriate time. Heh.
You’re carrying her love child??
Twins actually.
You’re carrying her twins? Or is it that you and she are twins?
They’re twins and he’s carrying her love child? Kinky!
im predicting widespread voter theft followed by rioting, looting, martial law and a military coup
i really wish more dems had guns
I’m far more pessimistic than you Booman. At best, I think we’ll see a 13 seat Democratic pickup in the House and a 3 seat Democratic pickup in the Senate. The best showing in a while, perhaps, but total shit nevertheless.
Because I’m a masochist.
he’s been hitting Limbaugh’s medicine cabinet.
I do think we’ll take about 20, maybe 25 seats max in the House. Senate far more problematical; 5 at the best, leaving us with a 50-50 setup with Deadeye Dick Cheney as the tiebreaker. We might see Harry Reid trying to lure some of the more moderate Republicans into the Democratic camp.
What worries me is that Rove sounds so confident — it may be a case of whistling past the graveyard, or he might be working on the intro to his book, “Working With Idiots: How George W. Bush Fucked Up My Career”. Or maybe he knows something that I don’t…and that scares the bejeezus out of me…
marathon is first preceeded by two weeks of reeking garbage ads, lying through their teeth, pretending they didn’t say what they have said over and over and sucking up to the kool aid clowns using those idiot’s hatred against gays, blacks, browns and women.
A truly putrid mountain of garbage the repubs have become. I wonder that ANY sane human would continue to reiterate that they were republican.
Let us assume that we are going to get leadership in one of the houses. What can that leadership do? I can see we will then have supeana power, but I can also see that the preznit will stonewall and not give requested information. The only recourse then is the pocketbook. Could the dems hold strong or would they remember how badly the repubs fared when they tried to outdo Clinton and stopped the government? The executive branch is also the enforcement branch. I can’t see them enforcing a supeana issued by the house! The only thing I think we will gain by taking the house only is a pulpit and a bullhorn.
If we took both house and senate, then that pulpit and bullhorn would be doubled. And then we could talk impeachment and have a damn good case if Bush stonewalled!
It will be pleasant to see the republicans lose this badly.
Incidentally, shit is really about to hit the fan with the markets and the economy. This is stuff building since the 1970s that was about to fully vent off in 2001 with the burst of the 90s equity bubble in the wake of massive money supply ginning during the decade (makes for lots of activity, but is not genuine growth — though people get faked into believing it is). Bush and the Fed rigged used emergency measures to head off a nasty recession at the pass — by flooding the economy with cheap credit and more fresh money… now we have a housing bubble that is cracking and will NOT be pretty.
Signals are also showing that the equity markets could crack as soon as mid November…. Evidence also suggests that the futures markets are being dabbled with to make the equities market seem all peaches and roses. You’ve also seen the bit about Goldman reconstituting its Commodities index, knocking back the unleaded gasoline representation by 75%.. results in many commodities related managers backing off their unleaded gas allocations for their clients… Thanks you Henry Paulson, former CEO of Goldman?
Meanwhile, the economic news is hardly flattering, yet the markets seem indifferent…
You guys may win. Be careful what you wish for, at least on the economic front.
I live in Pennsylvania’s 16th District but have been asked by MoveOn to make GOTV calls in the Jim Gerlach, R/ Lois Murphy race in the PA 6th. I guess the powers to be do not consider that Lois Herr has much of a chance against Joe (THE) Pitts in this very conservative bastion!
Anyway, when I saw the script for the calls, I noticed that MoveOn wants me to put in a pitch for Casey as well, but I cannot do this because I strongly feel Casey is the wrong choice in these times of increase religious power over secularism and increased trumping of freedoms in general. Since this story seems to show that Casey has it in the bag, so to speak, I guess just calling for Murphy should be acceptable, but I asked MoveOn whether they want me to call at all given my strong anti-Casey feeling. I wonder what they will say??
We are going to win somewhere between 45-60 seats in Congress.
Again I say to you, go outside, turn around three times, spit, and curse.
Sheesh. I’m not normally superstitious, but as a lifelong democrat, I just can’t take this optimism!