Wave is Building

Charlie Cook paints a heartening picture:

With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.

If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.

The key is getting those independent voters to the polls. We do that and we could be looking at 6 new Democratic Senators and more than 35 new Democratic Congresspeople. Cook has upgraded some of the house races. You can see the netroots’ influence by looking at the amount of ActBlue money we contributed. We helped make these races competitive.

AZ-05 Hayworth (Mitchell) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $18,845.38
CA-11 Pombo (McNerney) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $190,677.12
CO-04 Musgrave (Paccione) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $65,929.54
CO-05 (Lamborn/Fawcett) Open Likely Republican to Lean Republican- ActBlue: $62,398.98
IA-01 Open (Whalen/Braley) Toss Up to Lean Democratic- ActBlue: $74,169.08
KS-02 Ryun (Boyda) Likely Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $3,163.16
MN-01 Gutknecht (Walz) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $52,386.86
NE-03 Open (Smith/Kleeb) Likely Republican to Lean Republican- ActBlue: $26,709.78
NH-02 Bass (Hodes) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $71,739.52
OH-02 Schmidt (Wulsin) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $119,299.38
WY-AL Cubin (Trauner) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $257,632.28
CA-50 Bilbray Likely Republican to Lean Republican- ActBlue: $123,719.67

Meanwhile, things are breaking our way in Virginia. I guess they were shocked to find out the Vice-President’s wife is into lesbian porn:

CNN, 10/29: Webb (D) 50%–46% Allen (R)
Rasmussen, 10/29: Webb 51%–46% Allen
Zogby Internet, 10/29: Webb 51%–47.2% Allen
DSCC internal, 10/29: Webb 47%–43% Allen

According to the polls, we are up in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Ohio, Virginia, and Montana. Missouri is dead even and we are trailing in Tennessee. Based on that, control over the Senate turns on the outcome of Missouri. So, help Claire McCaskill out if you can. Arizona and Tennessee are still in play, too.

What’s the news in your neck of the woods?

8 Comments

maryb2004 on October 31, 2006 at 2:14 pm

Opinion Research poll for CNN (telephone interviews 10/26-10/29):

McCaskill and Talent are tied EXACTLY 49-49 among likely voters. MoE 4%

McCaskill leads Talent 51-43 among registered voters. MoE3%

BooMan on October 31, 2006 at 2:19 pm

that’s why voter suppression is so key to the GOP.
- maryb2004 on October 31, 2006 at 2:31 pm
  
  True. It’s a big topic here.
  
  They already did the voter list purge in 2000 — that resulted in a department of justice investigation that found that many of people were prohibited from voting who should have been able to vote. So now we have a system of poll watchers to inform people of their rights.
  
  This year they tried to institutionalize voter suppression by passing the voter ID law. The Missouri Supreme Court struck it down.
  
  The GOP legislature also passed a bill prohibiting straight party voting — so lines at the polls would theoretically be longer. I’m not sure how many people used straight party voting so I don’t know what the effect will be.
  
  Now there is an effort to suppress a large number of voter registrations that were gathered by ACORN.
  
  And then there are all the usual things — telling people the wrong polling places, etc.
  
  And, yeah, electronic voting and everything that goes with that. We have paper trail machines and in the bluest part of the state, the City of St. Louis, there is a choice of a paper optical scan ballot. And everybody’s aware of pre-election day calibration problems on the machines.
  
  But … we’re doing what we can do. Which is GOTV. I subscribe to the General Grant theory — stop worrying so much about what the other guy is doing and worry about what YOU are doing.
  
  I’m not looking forward to a recount though … 🙁

idredit on October 31, 2006 at 2:25 pm

Bernie Sanders – Dems left the coast clear. Bernie is in my neck of the woods and pulling strong in Repub enclaves statewide – running against that multimillionaire, his name starts with T wrote his own check in the millions to get name recognition ahead of Bernie. But Bernie is all set.

Have you? noticed Bush is reminding audiences about those polls in 2004, even on election day!

We’ll see how fair a vote count we get. Here’s hoping the audience noted that Bush can’t get anything straight..

Molly Ivins recommends we practice for victory – it’s been so long…

Worth a read – “GOP ineptitude and some advice for Dems.”

“There’s no doubt in my mind, with your help, Dave Lamberti will be the next United States congressman.” — President George Bush last week, endorsing Jeff Lamberti”[.]

“I realize for many Democrats it has been so long since we won, we have completely forgotten the etiquette. And I realize I’m taking a chance here — there’s nothing more dangerous than overconfidence — but you have to practice for victory as well as defeat.” [.]

dada on October 31, 2006 at 2:26 pm

latest internal d polling [from a firm outside co] has co. 04, paccione v musgrave at a dead heat…gotv is going to win this one…it’s gonna be close.

idredit on October 31, 2006 at 3:15 pm

Too close and getting physical.

Blogger Mike Stark attached by Allen’s guys in VA. Sen. George Allen didn’t like Mike’s query. (H/T: Thinkprogess)

Connecticut Man1 on October 31, 2006 at 3:24 pm

From Sufi at My Left Nutmeg:

I’m hopeful that this means good news for Lamont…when people who ordinarily don’t vote are getting up off their butts to register, it’s usually because they are unhappy about the status quo.

Voter registration at decade high
Gregory B. Hladky, Capitol Bureau Chief
10/30/2006

The party affiliation breakdown of those new voters doesn’t appear to be good news for Republican candidates in a year when many Connecticut residents are angry with both the Iraq war and President Bush.

Only 14.3 percent of new registrants signed up to join the GOP, a figure well below the Republicans’ overall share of the Connecticut electorate and barely more than one-third of new Democratic voters.

However, the biggest chunk of new voters have registered as unaffiliated. Political scientists say that where those 34,000 new independents land on Election Day could vary widely depending on the race involved.

…snip…

“I don’t believe the new independent voters will be any different,” said Scott McLean, chairman of Quinnipiac University’s political science department. “My gut tells me Democrats will generally benefit from (the surge in new voters) … but it’s not really possible to tell how unaffiliated voters are going to break.”

One top Connecticut Republican who is concerned by the new registration numbers is state Sen. John McKinney, R-Fairfield, the second-ranking GOP leader in the state Senate.

…snip…

McKinney said it “is a concern” that Republicans are getting less than their usual share of the new voters. Statewide, the GOP has 21.5 percent of all registered voters.

Aw, poor fucking Republicans–not getting “their share” of the voters–well, that’s what happens when their leadership drives our country into a ditch.

This is a nightmare scenario for every Republican candidate in Connecticut. They are in for a rude awakening when the votes are all counted IMHO.

CabinGirl on October 31, 2006 at 5:05 pm

Look, great minds think alike, or something like that…

maryb2004 on October 31, 2006 at 2:14 pm

Opinion Research poll for CNN (telephone interviews 10/26-10/29):

McCaskill and Talent are tied EXACTLY 49-49 among likely voters. MoE 4%

McCaskill leads Talent 51-43 among registered voters. MoE3%
- BooMan on October 31, 2006 at 2:19 pm
  
  that’s why voter suppression is so key to the GOP.
  - maryb2004 on October 31, 2006 at 2:31 pm
    
    True. It’s a big topic here.
    
    They already did the voter list purge in 2000 — that resulted in a department of justice investigation that found that many of people were prohibited from voting who should have been able to vote. So now we have a system of poll watchers to inform people of their rights.
    
    This year they tried to institutionalize voter suppression by passing the voter ID law. The Missouri Supreme Court struck it down.
    
    The GOP legislature also passed a bill prohibiting straight party voting — so lines at the polls would theoretically be longer. I’m not sure how many people used straight party voting so I don’t know what the effect will be.
    
    Now there is an effort to suppress a large number of voter registrations that were gathered by ACORN.
    
    And then there are all the usual things — telling people the wrong polling places, etc.
    
    And, yeah, electronic voting and everything that goes with that. We have paper trail machines and in the bluest part of the state, the City of St. Louis, there is a choice of a paper optical scan ballot. And everybody’s aware of pre-election day calibration problems on the machines.
    
    But … we’re doing what we can do. Which is GOTV. I subscribe to the General Grant theory — stop worrying so much about what the other guy is doing and worry about what YOU are doing.
    
    I’m not looking forward to a recount though … 🙁
idredit on October 31, 2006 at 2:25 pm

Bernie Sanders – Dems left the coast clear. Bernie is in my neck of the woods and pulling strong in Repub enclaves statewide – running against that multimillionaire, his name starts with T wrote his own check in the millions to get name recognition ahead of Bernie. But Bernie is all set.

Have you? noticed Bush is reminding audiences about those polls in 2004, even on election day!

We’ll see how fair a vote count we get. Here’s hoping the audience noted that Bush can’t get anything straight..

Molly Ivins recommends we practice for victory – it’s been so long…

Worth a read – “GOP ineptitude and some advice for Dems.”

“There’s no doubt in my mind, with your help, Dave Lamberti will be the next United States congressman.” — President George Bush last week, endorsing Jeff Lamberti”[.]

“I realize for many Democrats it has been so long since we won, we have completely forgotten the etiquette. And I realize I’m taking a chance here — there’s nothing more dangerous than overconfidence — but you have to practice for victory as well as defeat.” [.]
dada on October 31, 2006 at 2:26 pm

latest internal d polling [from a firm outside co] has co. 04, paccione v musgrave at a dead heat…gotv is going to win this one…it’s gonna be close.
- idredit on October 31, 2006 at 3:15 pm
  
  Too close and getting physical.
  
  Blogger Mike Stark attached by Allen’s guys in VA. Sen. George Allen didn’t like Mike’s query. (H/T: Thinkprogess)
Connecticut Man1 on October 31, 2006 at 3:24 pm

From Sufi at My Left Nutmeg:

I’m hopeful that this means good news for Lamont…when people who ordinarily don’t vote are getting up off their butts to register, it’s usually because they are unhappy about the status quo.

Voter registration at decade high
Gregory B. Hladky, Capitol Bureau Chief
10/30/2006

The party affiliation breakdown of those new voters doesn’t appear to be good news for Republican candidates in a year when many Connecticut residents are angry with both the Iraq war and President Bush.

Only 14.3 percent of new registrants signed up to join the GOP, a figure well below the Republicans’ overall share of the Connecticut electorate and barely more than one-third of new Democratic voters.

However, the biggest chunk of new voters have registered as unaffiliated. Political scientists say that where those 34,000 new independents land on Election Day could vary widely depending on the race involved.

…snip…

“I don’t believe the new independent voters will be any different,” said Scott McLean, chairman of Quinnipiac University’s political science department. “My gut tells me Democrats will generally benefit from (the surge in new voters) … but it’s not really possible to tell how unaffiliated voters are going to break.”

One top Connecticut Republican who is concerned by the new registration numbers is state Sen. John McKinney, R-Fairfield, the second-ranking GOP leader in the state Senate.

…snip…

McKinney said it “is a concern” that Republicans are getting less than their usual share of the new voters. Statewide, the GOP has 21.5 percent of all registered voters.

Aw, poor fucking Republicans–not getting “their share” of the voters–well, that’s what happens when their leadership drives our country into a ditch.

This is a nightmare scenario for every Republican candidate in Connecticut. They are in for a rude awakening when the votes are all counted IMHO.
CabinGirl on October 31, 2006 at 5:05 pm

Look, great minds think alike, or something like that…

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