Charlie Cook paints a heartening picture:
With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.
If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.
The key is getting those independent voters to the polls. We do that and we could be looking at 6 new Democratic Senators and more than 35 new Democratic Congresspeople. Cook has upgraded some of the house races. You can see the netroots’ influence by looking at the amount of ActBlue money we contributed. We helped make these races competitive.
AZ-05 Hayworth (Mitchell) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $18,845.38
CA-11 Pombo (McNerney) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $190,677.12
CO-04 Musgrave (Paccione) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $65,929.54
CO-05 (Lamborn/Fawcett) Open Likely Republican to Lean Republican- ActBlue: $62,398.98
IA-01 Open (Whalen/Braley) Toss Up to Lean Democratic- ActBlue: $74,169.08
KS-02 Ryun (Boyda) Likely Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $3,163.16
MN-01 Gutknecht (Walz) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $52,386.86
NE-03 Open (Smith/Kleeb) Likely Republican to Lean Republican- ActBlue: $26,709.78
NH-02 Bass (Hodes) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $71,739.52
OH-02 Schmidt (Wulsin) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $119,299.38
WY-AL Cubin (Trauner) Lean Republican to Toss Up- ActBlue: $257,632.28
CA-50 Bilbray Likely Republican to Lean Republican- ActBlue: $123,719.67
Meanwhile, things are breaking our way in Virginia. I guess they were shocked to find out the Vice-President’s wife is into lesbian porn:
- CNN, 10/29: Webb (D) 50%–46% Allen (R)
- Rasmussen, 10/29: Webb 51%–46% Allen
- Zogby Internet, 10/29: Webb 51%–47.2% Allen
- DSCC internal, 10/29: Webb 47%–43% Allen
According to the polls, we are up in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Ohio, Virginia, and Montana. Missouri is dead even and we are trailing in Tennessee. Based on that, control over the Senate turns on the outcome of Missouri. So, help Claire McCaskill out if you can. Arizona and Tennessee are still in play, too.
What’s the news in your neck of the woods?
