CA-11: Pombo/McNerney News [Updated]

I don’t have a lot of time to give this the full diary treatment, but I wanted to post and bring everyone here up to date on this race. Suddenly, and perhaps a little surprisingly for those of us who have been involved in McNerney’s campaign for a long time, this is one of THE hot races in the nation.
Majority Watch just released polling results the other day that show Jerry McNerney ahead of Richard Pombo 48-46% with a MoE of 3%. This is the first independent poll that has been conducted in CA-11 in this cycle. The McNerney campaign and the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund have released internal polling which has consistently shown a dead heat. But none of the local media have given much credence to these poll results, dismissing them as being biased. Tellingly, Pombo and the NRCC, which have been polling throughout, have refused to release any of their internals.

Some interesting points about this Majority Watch poll. First, it is a robo-poll, so its results are being labelled as somewhat suspect by those who are dismissive of that technology. Their overall results in this cycle will probably determine how much credence robo-polling will be given in the future.

Specific to CA-11, though, there are some problems with their data — all of which tilt the playing field in McNerney’s favor. First, their sample population was 46% Republicans, 33% Democrats. The actual registration numbers in CA-11 are 43% Republicans and 37% Democrats. Second, they undersampled Latino voters (who appear to be breaking toward McNerney by about 2-1) by almost 50%. It’s also worth noting that the 48-46% finding is among “likely voters.” When you move beyond that to “certain voters,” the results change to 52-42% in favor of McNerney. So that is all very good news.  Unreliable, but good.

I mentioned above that the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund had done some polling. Defenders has played a huge role in this race, although not too many people seem to be aware of it. They came into the district last spring, and have spent over $1 million in anti-Pombo activism. They have an office in the district with a full-time staff of ten who have been organizing canvasses (250 showed up last weekend, and they covered 12,000 houses). This weekend, they are planning their biggest event yet for GOTV. They have arranged to have Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner join them in canvassing on Saturday in the San Ramon Valley. So if you live anywhere near the Bay Area, you can come out and canvass with Ben & Jen this weekend.

But if you live anywhere near the Bay Area, where you really need to be tonight is in Stockton. In a last-minute decision, Former President Bill Clinton has decided to join in a GOTV rally for Jerry McNerney in Stockton tonight at 9:00. This rally is taking form with less than 24 hours of notice, so the campaign is working like hell to try to get a good turn-out. If you can possibly make it, try to get out to see the Big Dog. The event is FREE, but you need to pre-register at Jerry McNerney’s website.

Whew! I think I covered everything. I’ll try to update tomorrow with pictures.

Update [2006-11-2 4:55:24 by Brementown Musician]: Several thousand of us stood in the rain for 3 hours (the rally was held outdoors, and we had our first rain of the season), and Clinton lived up to his reputation for being late. There was a whole raft of speakers: Chairman of the State Democratic Party, Art Torres, acted as emcee; John Garamendi, running for Lt. Governor, is a wonderfully dynamic speaker; the outstanding Debra Bowen, running for SoS was there; and the slightly less stellar Cruz Bustamante also spoke.

Finally, McNerney and Clinton landed (the event was held at the Stockton Airport) and came onstage at about 10:45. I had a really terrible view, and after two or three pretty poor shots, my camera battery died. But I did find a couple of pictures online. Shown in the photos are Debra Bowen, Clinton, and McNerney.