In My House Predictions this morning I predicted the Dems would pick up 30 seats. Then a bunch of Zogby polls were released. The Zogby polls have had a lot of outliers this elections season, so I take them all with a grain of salt. But they do, for the most part, back up my predictions. Below the fold I have a table with the most recent polls from all the most contested races (I stole it from National Review Online).
These polls show a net 27 seat gain for the Dems. But they add a little flavor. For example, only 20 of my 30 seats are included in NRO’s 27. The additional seats are CO-04 Musgrave 42%, Paccione 45%, FL-13 Buchanan 41%, Jennings 52%, FL-22 Shaw 42%, Klein 48%, IL-06 Roskam 40%, Duckworth 54%, KY-04 Davis 42%, Lucas 45%, NH-02 Bass 39%, Hodes 48%, OH-01 Chabot 40%, Cranley 49%.
The most recent polls conflict with some of my picks. For example, I have projected Dems to win the following seats where they trail:
CA-11, Pombo 41%, McNerney 40%, CT-02, Simmons 47%, Courtney 42%, MN-06, Bachmann 52%, Wetterling 42%, NY-25, Walsh 44%, Maffei 42%, NY-26, Reynolds 50%, Davis 45%, OH-02, Schmidt 48%, Wulsin 40%, PA-08, Fitzpatrick 47%, Murphy 42%. WI-08, which I picked for Kagen, is even 43%-43%.
So, the most recent polls show seven Democrats ahead that I didn’t list, and seven Democrats behind, which I did list. I’d say my prediction of thirty is pretty solid. If anything it is too low. Thirty to thirty-six seats and I’m sticking to it.
AZ-5 (R) |
Hayworth: 47% |
Mitchell: 46% | Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal 10/19 |
AZ-8 (Open-R) |
Graf: 41% |
Giffords: 53% |
Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
|
CA-11 (R) |
Pombo: 41% |
McNerney: 40% | Lake Research Partners (D) 09/30 |
CA-4 (R) |
Doolittle: 51% |
Brown: 41% |
Survey USA 10/23 |
CO-4 (R) |
Musgrave: 42% |
Paccione: 45% |
Strategic Services (D) 10/26 |
CO-7 (Open-R) |
O’Donnell: 40% |
Perlmutter: 54% |
Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
CT-2 (R) |
|
Courtney: 42% | Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
CT-4 (R) |
Shays: 44% |
Farrell: 51% |
|
CT-5 (R) |
Johnson: 43% |
Murphy: 46% |
Research 2000 NEW 10/31 |
FL-13 (Open-R) |
Buchanan: 41% |
Jennings: 52% |
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D) 10/26 |
|
FL-16 (Open-R) |
Negron: 43% |
Mahoney: 50% |
RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics 10/01 |
FL-22 (R) |
Shaw: 42% |
Klein: 48% |
Anzalone-Liszt Research (D) 10/28 |
IA-1 (Open-R) |
Whalen: 42% |
Braley: 49% |
Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
ID-1 (Open-R) |
Sali: 39% |
Grant: 37% | Mason-Dixon NEW 10/30 |
|
IL-6 (Open-R) |
Roskam: 40% |
Duckworth: 54% |
Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
IN-2 (R) |
Chocola: 39% |
Donnelly: 52% |
Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
IN-8 (R) |
Hostettler: 43% |
Ellsworth: 50% |
Research 2000 10/25 |
IN-9 (R) |
Sodrel: 46% |
Hill: 48% |
Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
|
KY-2 (R) |
Lewis: 50% |
Weaver: 42% | KY Bluegrass Report 09/25 |
KY-3 (R) |
Northup: 48% |
Yarmuth: 42% | |
KY-4 (R) |
Davis: 42% |
Lucas: 45% |
Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
MN-1 (R) |
Gutknecht: 48% |
Walz: 47% | RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics 10/10 |
MN-6 (Open-R) |
|
Wetterling: 42% | Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
NC-11 (R) |
Taylor: 43% |
Shuler: 48% |
|
NH-2 (R) |
Bass: 39% |
Hodes: 48% |
Becker Institute, Inc. 10/09 |
NJ-7 (R) |
Ferguson: 48% |
Stender: 33% | Tarrance Group (R) 10/12 |
NM-1 (R) |
Wilson: 44% |
Madrid: 53% |
Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
NV-2 (Open-R) |
Heller: 48% |
Derby: 40% |
Research 2000 NEW 10/30 |
NV-3 (R) |
Porter: 41% |
Hafen: 37% | Momentum Analysis (D) 10/04 |
NY-20 (R) |
Sweeney: 40% |
Gillibrand: 43% |
Grove Insight (D) 10/28 |
NY-24 (Open-R) |
Meier: 42% |
Arcuri: 53% |
RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics 10/10 |
NY-25 (R) |
Walsh: 44% |
Maffei: 42% | Benenson Strategy Group (D) NEW 10/31 |
NY-26 (R) |
Reynolds: 50% |
Davis: 45% | Survey USA 10/26 |
NY-29 (R) |
Kuhl: 40% |
Massa: 52% |
RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics 10/17 |
OH-1 (R) |
Chabot: 40% |
Cranley: 49% |
Grove Insight (D) 10/28 |
OH-15 (R) |
Pryce: 41% |
Kilroy: 53% |
RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics 10/10 |
OH-18 (Open-R) |
Padgett: 33% |
Space: 53% |
Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
OH-2 (R) |
Schmidt: 48% |
Wulsin: 40% | |
PA-10 (R) |
Sherwood: 38% |
Carney: 47% |
Lycoming College NEW 10/30 |
PA-4 (R) |
Hart: 46% |
Altmire: 42% | Polling & Research 10/25 |
|
PA-6 (R) |
Gerlach: 44% |
Murphy: 49% |
Reuters/Zogby NEW 11/01 |
PA-7 (R) |
Weldon: 43% |
Sestak: 50% |
Benenson Strategy Group (D) 10/28 |
PA-8 (R) |
Fitzpatrick: 47% |
Murphy: 42% | The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College NEW 10/31 |
TX-22 (Open-R) |
Sekula-Gibbs: 28% |
Lampson: 36% |
Zogby NEW 10/30 |
|
TX-23 (R) |
Bonilla: 44% |
Rodriguez: 24% | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 08/20 |
VA-2 (R) |
Drake: 51% |
Kellam: 43% | |
WA-8 (R) |
Reichert: 50% |
Burner: 47% | Survey USA 10/17 |
WI-8 (Open-R) |
Gard: 43% |
Kagen: 43% | St. Norbert College NEW 10/30 |
I don’t know about you but I find it quite strange that Zogby has a lot of races in both the House and the Senate that are closer that what the other polls have said.
because the minority party has no power and can’t do anything but scream, and the majority party is busy causing the country’s massive problems.
From your keyboard to Gods’ ears.
look like they’re well within the MoE, and especially in CA-11 look like a lot of undecideds/3rd party voters.
It’s gonna be a nail-biter, but I’m thinking 20-25 in the House…
just wanted to thank you for your “Idiots” list. Anyone else notice it on the page yet?
Maybe I should change it to ‘racists and spouse batterers’.
Noticed the Idiots list the other day, and saw the three from Illinois. Tonight only the Mark Kirk link is live, but among the video clips is one on Obama and an empty lot next to his new home. Lot was bought by Rezko, Obama bought 1/6 of it to add to his own property, and paid owner more than double the appraised value!
Oops.
Equal opportunity idiocy list?
You forgot Boyda (D)who has apparently forced the RNCC to pour money into KS-2nd District. A district that has been won by Jim Ryan, who is literally in a dead heat race with Ms. Boyda.
I din’t forget it, I mentioned it in my first post. I just am not projecting it as a win right now.
Harry has a real shot at sending J.D. back to a sportsdesk. He is raising more money than J.D., has a great ground operation and has been all over the district talking to people. He’s also well-liked among a bipartisan coalition of former and current state lawmakers. J.D. is….well J.D.
Tucson Weekly has their latest poll out today showing a big lead for Gabrielle Giffords. This is pretty much over, as there seems to be a backlash brewing on Randy Graf’s one-trick pony show of hardline immigration policies.