One of the tasks of a challenging candidate is to get out ahead and get the aura of a winner. Being seen as a winner grants you instant legitimacy. And people like to vote for a winner. Casting a vote involves an emotional investment, and if your candidate loses, you lose. People don’t like to lose. If Ned Lamont, at any point after the primary had been ahead in the polls, he probably would have sailed to victory. Lacking that, he has struggled to get Connecticut voters to picture him as their Senator. He hasn’t been able to take on the aura of a winner. But the Democratic Party has taken on the aura of a winner, and this bodes extremely well for them. It creates a differential motivation in the bases of both parties.
It’s true that the spectre of a Speaker Pelosi and Chairmen Conyers and Waxman is hurting our candidates in a few deeply conservative districts (notably CO-5, TX-22, FL-16). But it is motivating our base in a huge swath of the country extending from New Hampshire all the way to Wisconsin. And that is where I believe we are about to see a major realignment. Follow me below the fold for my House Predictions.
Connecticut
Connecticut is experiencing the most unusual political environment in the country. Obviously, the Lieberman/Lamont race is dominating coverage. It’s a deeply blue state where Jodi Rell(R) is dominating in the Governor’s race and the more conservative Lieberman is leading in the polls against Lamont. It is very difficult to project whose base is going to be more motivated to get to the polls. Republicans can be excited about casting a vote for Governor. Beyond that, they have little motivation. The Dems are seriously contesting three races:
CT-02 Simmons/Courtney
CT-04 Shays/Farrell
CT-05 Johnson/Murphy
We are currently ahead, modestly, in all three races. If any of the Republicans hold on it is most likely to be Nancy Johnson (CT-05). Since I find it impossible to divine the mood of Connecticut voters, I have difficulty projecting these races. I’m inclined to hedge and project 2 seats. But I am an optimist and I project the Dems sweeping these elections. Plus three.
New York
New York has the potential to be a bloodbath for the Republicans. First of all, Eliot Spitzer is crushing his opponent in the Governor’s race as is Hillary Clinton in the Senate race. These competitions are not remotely competitive. So, the GOP is already facing losing the Governor’s mansion and 4-6 more years of Hillary. That would be bad enough, but they have SEVEN vulnerable seats in Congress.
NY-03 King/Mejias
NY-19 Kelly/Hall
NY-20 Sweeney/Gillibrand
NY-24 Meier/Acuri
NY-25 Walsh/Maffei
NY-26 Reynolds/Davis
NY-29 Kuhl/Massa
NY-24 appears to be already lost, with Acuri polling 11 points ahead. Breaking news today is that Tom Sweeney’s wife once had to call 911 because her husband was ‘knocking her around the house’. In an already close race, this may be enough to hand the seat to Gillibrand. Meanwhile, NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds was badly damaged by the Mark Foley scandal. Based on the polls, this race is too close to call.
Call it a hunch, but I think that a combination of factors including the blowout nature of the state-wide races, the Foley scandal, and the unpopularity of Bush will combine to suppress GOP turnout. The result will be that we will win at least six of these races. The one least likely to lose is Peter King (NY-03). Plus six (+9).
Pennsylvania
Like New York, Pennsylvania does not have competitive state-wide races. Bob Casey Jr. is set to crush Rick Santorum, but not by as much as Ed Rendell is set to crush Lynn Swann. Ed Rendell is very, very popular in the Philadelphia suburbs, where three hotly contested races are taking place. We also have a shot at two more seats, one in the northeast corner of the state and one in the Pittsburgh suburbs.
PA-04 Hart/Altmire
PA-06 Gerlach/Murphy
PA-07 Weldon/Sestak
PA-08 Fitzpatrick/Murphy
PA-10 Sherwood/Carney
The tenth district is a special case. Rep. Sherwood has been accused of choking his mistress. This forced him to air commercials admitting the affair but denying the assault. He is going to lose his seat, but it will be difficult to hold in the future. In the seventh district, Curt Weldon is under investigation and his daughter’s house was raided last week. He is going to lose. In the sixth, Lois Murphy should win a squeaker. Polls for PA-08 have gone back and forth. I am too close to Patrick Murphy to be objective, but I just sense that he is running a winning campaign. I believe having Rendell at the top of the ticket will be enough to put Patrick over the top. As for PA-04, Altmire has never led in the polls and I have no inside information that would lead me to project victory. Plus four (+13).
Ohio
Just like New York and Pennsylvania the state-wide races heavily favor the Democrats. Moreover, while scandal has touched PA and NY, it is an epidemic in Ohio, where the Governor has been indicted on four counts, they had CoinGate, and Bob Ney has copped a plea. In short, the GOP brand is at an all-time low in Ohio. Ted Stickland is crushing Kenneth Blackwell in the Governor’s race and Sherrod Brown has pulled away from Mike DeWine in the Senate race. It is hard to see how the GOP can rally their base in this state. Meanwhile, both Dems and independents are primed to teach the GOP a lesson.
OH-01 Chabot/Cranley
OH-02 Schmidt/Wulsin
OH-15 Pryce/Kilroy
OH-18 Padgett/Space
In OH-02 we are facing Mean Jean Schmidt, who famously questioned John Murtha’s courage on the House floor and was forced to ask that her remarks be expunged from the Congressional record. This is a seat that was softened up by Paul Hackett. It seems crazy but I think we’re actually going to win this race. OH-18 is Bob Ney’s seat and I believe we are going to win that one as well. The most recent poll on OH-15 has Kilroy up 12 points over Pryce, who was hurt badly in the Foley scandal. Foley was/is one of her best friends. The poll was taken at the heart of the Foley scandal though, so I don’t think this race is a foregone conclusion.
The two most recent polls in OH-01 have Cranley up by 2 and 9 points in the polls. Based on the polls, we are set to win all four races. I’ll hedge my bets and say that Chabot will hold on. Plus three (+16)
Just looking at these four states I believe we have the seats we need to take the house. To these I will add Mark Foley and Tom DeLay’s seats, although they are still competitive. That puts us at eighteen. Here are the other seats I think we will win:
AZ-08, CA-11, CO-07, IA-01, IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, NC-11, NM-01, MN-06, WI-08, WY-AL.
That puts us at thirty seats. I actually think this is a somewhat conservative estimate. While I may be a little optimistic about how thoroughly we will trounce the Republicans in CT, NY, PA, and OH, I am also pessimistic about how we will do in contested seats in Florida, Kentucky, Virginia, Nebraska, Kansas, California, and Idaho. If things break the (left) way for us, we could be looking at five or six more pick-ups in those races. And then there always a few surprises in races that aren’t on anyone’s radar. My prediction is thirty seats, with a potential for thirty-six.
