Based on the latest polls available at Pollster.com the Republicans are in for a severe beating in the House of Representatives. Very severe. So, I thought I would do all the lobbyists a big favor and give them an easy and ready resource to know on which committees they will need to find new friends. For starters, we already know that Dennis Hastert will be neither Speaker nor Minority Leader, if he even gets re-elected. The GOP also looks like they are going to lose their Conference Chair in Deborah Pryce (R-OH-15th) and their NRCC Chair in Thomas Reynolds (R-NY-26th).
For the purposes of the following I am making these assumptions: Any Democrat that is currently ahead in the polls will win. And Democrat that is rated as a toss-up in a race against an incumbent that is polling under 50% will win. Any Democrat that is running for an open seat and is within the margin of error will win.
Those assumptions are overly optimistic, I know. But most of these candidates, nearly all I believe, are going to lose.
One thing you will notice is that the Financial Services and Transportation committees will be almost entirely wiped out. This will require you lobbyists to make many new friends. A lot of them will have strange southern accents. Do not be concerned by this. They will learn about banks and trains in due time, and with your assistance.
For non-lobbyists, if you suddenly discover that it is much easier to breathe, look no further than the departing members of the Resources Committee.
All departing members are listed in order of seniority. In some cases the members are not running for re-election but the seat is still likely to be lost.
Don’t blame me if there are additional old friends that lose their seats that I did not list. This is largely your fault, not mine. Thank you and enjoy.
Agriculture (6)– Rep. Richard Pombo CA-11, Rep. Tom Osborne NE-03, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave CO-04, Rep. Randy Kuhl NY-29, Rep. Jean Schmidt OH-02,
Rep. Mike Sodrel IN-09
Appropriations (6)– Rep. Jim Kolbe (REP-AZ-8th), Rep. James Walsh (REP-NY-25th), Rep. Charles Taylor (REP-NC-11th), Rep. Anne Northup (REP-KY-3rd), Rep. John Sweeney (REP-NY-20th), Rep. Don Sherwood (REP-PA-10th)
Armed Services (4)– Rep. Curt Weldon (REP-PA-7th), Rep. John Hostettler (REP-IN-8th), Rep. Jim Ryun (REP-KS-2nd), Rep. Geoff Davis (REP-KY-4th)
Budget (3)– Chairman Jim Nussle (REP-IA-1st), Rep. Jim Ryun (REP-KS-2nd), Rep. Chris Chocola (REP-IN-2nd)
Education (3)– Rep. Tom Osborne (REP-NE-3rd), Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (REP-CO-4th), Rep. Randy Kuhl (REP-NY-29th)
Energy and Commerce (4)– Rep. Barbara Cubin (REP-WY-At-Large), Rep. Heather Wilson (REP-NM-1st), Rep. Charles Bass (REP-NH-2nd), Rep. C.L. Otter (REP-ID-1st)
Ethics (0)– none
Financial Services (11)– Rep. Jim Leach (REP-IA-2nd), Rep. Deborah Pryce (REP-OH-15th), Rep. Bob Ney (REP-OH-18th), Rep. Sue Kelly (REP-NY-19th), Rep. Jim Ryun (REP-KS-2nd), Rep. Christopher Shays (REP-CT-4th), Rep. Tom Feeney (REP-FL-24th), Rep. Katherine Harris (REP-FL-13th), Rep. Jim Gerlach (REP-PA-6th), Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (REP-PA-8th), Rep. Geoff Davis (REP-KY-4th)
Government Reform (2)– Rep. Christopher Shays (REP-CT-4th), Rep. Gil Gutknecht (REP-MN-1st), Rep. Jean Schmidt (REP-OH-2nd)
Homeland Security (5)– Rep. Curt Weldon (REP-PA-7th),
Rep. Christopher Shays (REP-CT-4th), Rep. Robert Simmons (REP-CT-2nd), Rep. Katherine Harris (REP-FL-13th), Rep. Dave Reichert (REP-WA-8th)
House Administration (2)– Rep. Bob Ney (REP-OH-18th), Rep. Thomas Reynolds (REP-NY-26th)
Int. Relations (5)– Chairman Henry J. Hyde (REP-IL-6th), Rep. Jim Leach (REP-IA-2nd), Rep. Steve Chabot (REP-OH-1st), Rep. Mark Green (REP-WI-8th), Rep. Katherine Harris (REP-FL-13th)
Intelligence (1)– Heather Wilson (EP-NM-1st)
Judiciary (5)– Rep. Henry Hyde (REP-IL-6th), Rep. Steve Chabot (REP-OH-1st), Rep. John Hostettler (REP-IN-8th), Rep. Mark Green (REP-WI-8th), Rep. Tom Feeney (REP-FL-24th)
Resources (4)– Chairman Richard Pombo (REP-CA-11th), Rep. Barbara Cubin (REP-WY-At-Large), Rep. J.D. Hayworth (REP-AZ-5th), Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (REP-CO-4th)
Rules (0)– none
Science (6)– Chairman Sherwood L. Boehlert (REP-NY-24th), Rep. Curt Weldon (REP-PA-7th), Rep. Gil Gutknecht (REP-MN-1st), Rep. Tom Feeney (REP-FL-24th), Rep. Dave Reichert (REP-WA-8th), Rep. Mike Sodrel (REP-IN-9th)
Small Business (5)– Rep. Sue Kelly (REP-NY-19th), Rep. Steve Chabot (REP-OH-1st), Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (REP-CO-4th), Rep. Mike Sodrel (REP-IN-9th), Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (REP-PA-8th)
Transportation (12)– Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (REP-NY-24th), Rep. Sue Kelly (REP-NY-19th), Rep. Bob Ney (REP-OH-18th), Rep. Robin Hayes (REP-NC-8th), Rep. Robert Simmons (REP-CT-2nd), Rep. Mark Kennedy (REP-MN-6th), Rep. Jim Gerlach (REP-PA-6th), Rep. Tom Osborne (REP-NE-3rd), Rep. Mike Sodrel (REP-IN-9th), Rep. Dave Reichert (REP-WA-8th), Rep. Randy Kuhl (REP-NY-29th), Rep. Jean Schmidt (REP-OH-2nd)
Veterans’ Affairs (0)– none
Ways and Means (8)– Rep. E. Clay Shaw (REP-FL-22nd), Rep. Nancy Johnson (REP-CT-5th), Rep. Jim Nussle (REP-IA-1st), Rep. J.D. Hayworth (REP-AZ-5th), Rep. Ron Lewis (REP-KY-2nd), Rep. Thomas Reynolds (REP-NY-26th), Rep. Bob Beauprez (REP-CO-7th), Rep. Chris Chocola (REP-IN-2nd)
