I just spent a half-hour on the phone with Chris Bowers discussing House forecasts, potential political re-alignments, post election political strategies, and our battles with cold sweats and paranoia. The late breaking polls are coming in and they are truly startling. We are now up in all three Connecticut seats, four of five Pennsylvania seats, 3 Kentucky seats, four Ohio seats, two Arizona seats, 3 Florida seats, one Idaho seat, two Colorado seats, three Indiana seats, three New York seats, a New Hampshire seat, a seat in Iowa, a seat in New Mexico…
There are many more seats that could easily fall our way, including three of four in California, seats in Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming. If we just look at the polls in which we are tied or ahead, plus races where incumbents are significantly below fifty percent in the polls the numbers become staggering. A few days ago I predicted 30-36 seats would fall our way. But I didn’t include a lot of the seats I just mentioned above. If the tide continues this way it could approach fifty seats, or even exceed fifty.
Let me demonstrate this:
These are the seats where we are up in recent polls, or the incumbent is below 50% and the race is close.
Arizona: 5,8 +2
California: 11 +3
Colorado: 4,7 +5
Connecticut: 2,4,5 +8
Florida: 13,16,22 +11
Iowa: 1 +12
Idaho: 1 +13
Illinois: 6 +14
Indiana: 2,8,9 +17
Kentucky: 2,3,4 +20
Minnesota: 1 +21
North Carolina: 11 +22
New Hampshire: 2 +23
New Mexico: 1 +24
New York: 20,24,29 +27
Ohio: 1,2,15,18 +31
Pennsylvania: 4,6,7,8,10 +36
Texas: 22 +37
Wisconsin: 8 +38
Wyoming: AL +39
We have more potential pickups, including in Nebraska, Kansas, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, New York, Arizona, Colorado, and California.
Now, we could see a couple of different results. In one scenario we will pretty much win everything in the northeast and upper midwest, and solidify our position on the left coast. This would just turn the party into a bluer version of itself. In another scenario, we could do well in our base areas but not completely sweep them clean. But we could add seats in the border states, in Florida, and in the plains and mountain states. This would diversify the party, adding strength in our base, but also making inroads in the GOP base.
Chris and I discussed the implications of these two scenarios and which is more desirable. He leans towards the former, while I lean toward the latter. I think it is an interesting debate.
Of course, we could win it all, or do worse across the board than expected. Those scenarios would also have implications.
Right now, GOP insiders are quietly admitting that they will be relieved if they only lose 30 seats. Looking at the numbers, I can see why.
Expect some desperate measure in the last few days. Saddam Hussein will probably be sentenced to death this weekend. Maybe that will help the GOP a little. We will see.
