Well, with that title you probably know where I’m coming from …
[Update below the fold]
I’m not a big fan of political prognostications. I don’t follow all the ins and outs of political campaigns that closely for one thing, and the constant poll watching and hype and ecstasy one day, gloom and doom the next, which make up the genre just doesn’t appeal to me. I’m just not that much of a political junkie, I suppose.
That said, I do have an opinion as to what is likely to happen this Tuesday when the votes are tallied, one which I think is at least as reality based as others. And I confess, I’m not particularly optimistic, despite all the hopeful signs which point to Democratic gains. Frankly, I think we are being set up for another stolen election.
(cont.)
Too often in the last week I’ve seen new polls which claim that Republicans are surging. Not all of them, but you only need a few to help establish the narrative that the Republicans are poised to make a political comeback of Truman v. Dewey proportions.
Then factor in the massive voter suppression efforts the GOP is currently making, and plans to make on election day, the last minute ad blitz by the RNCC and other Republican/conservative organizations, and the numerous stories about the GOP’s “GOTV machine”, and the stage is set for a GOP victory that can be spun as not resulting from fraud, but from the superior (if nefarious) campaign strategy, tactics and organization of the Republicans.
We all know that the electronic voting machines and other machines used to tabulate the vote have serious security flaws, and are all too easy to hack. Furthermore, the companies which own those machines keep their software and source codes secret, refusing to divulge them even to the states and counties which purchase their equipment. And we are all to aware that these e-voting machine companies have contributed mightily to the campaign war chests of individual Republican officials and also the Republican party. It’s safe to assume they’re not completely unbiased regarding the outcome of the elections their machines will be tabulating.
It’s also apparent to anyone who’s paying attention, that not every race has to be fixed in order to maintain GOP majorities in both the Senate and the House. All one has to do is flip the vote in favor of Republican candidates in a few close races (or, to be more precise, races which are perceived by the media and pollsters to be close) and — voila! — Bush, Cheney, Rummy and their myriad of mindless minions are saved from having to contest Congressional subpoenas from the lies of Chairman John Conyers for the next two years. Just ask Karl Rove about the math required to make a Dem victory party turn sour.
So here is my tin foil hat (and I sincerely hope incredibly wrong headed) prediction for the outcome of the 2006 Mid-term Elections:
In the Senate: GOP wins all of the races currently deemed toss-ups. Dems pick up at most 2-3 seats, leaving Republicans with a still solid majority. To add salt to the wounds, Lieberman also wins in Connecticut and then decides to caucus with the Republicans (though he continues to maintain he is independent).
In the House of Representatives: Dems gain 10 -12 seats but not enough to achieve a majority. And Denny Hastert is re-elected as Speaker of the House.
What the Democrats will do when a multitude of “election irregularities” are unearthed: Nothing. No recounts, no lawsuits, no rallying cries for street protests. Also, there’s a good chance Howard Dean will be removed as the head of the DNC, and the DLC Dems will assume complete control of the party apparatus.
So, those are my predictions for the elections. Please tell me why I will be proved wrong, because I really want to believe. I do. But in light of the “high stakes” to the GOP should they lose, and their past history of election theft, my faith in a Democratic victory is ever so faint.
Update [2006-11-6 12:16:5 by Steven D]: Apparently I’m not alone in my concerns. Nancy Pelosi also fears cheating by Republicans:
House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi warned that a Republican victory Tuesday would prolong the U.S. involvement in Iraq another 10 years, as she embarked on a final push in a campaign that could make her speaker.
In an interview from her Capitol office, Pelosi characterized Tuesday’s vote as a referendum on the war, shrugged off President Bush’s efforts to make her liberalism a national issue, described the current GOP leadership as a “freak show,” and expressed confidence about her party’s prospects to pick up the 15 seats it needs for a majority.
“I know where the numbers are in these races, and I know that they are there for the 15; today (it’s) 22 to 26,” Pelosi said Friday.
Pelosi cautioned that the number of Democratic House victories could be higher or lower and said her greatest concern is over the integrity of the count — from the reliability of electronic voting machines to her worries that Republicans will try to manipulate the outcome.
“That is the only variable in this,” Pelosi said. “Will we have an honest count?”
