So how did I do on my top 10 wish list for last night?
1. Rick Santorum- beaten like a drum.
2. George Allen- beaten, but headed for a recount.
3. Katherine Harris and Kenneth Blackwell- beaten like red-headed stepchildren.
4. Heather Wilson of New Mexico- up by 1303 votes with 99% reporting.
5. J.D. Hayworth of Arizona. Drubbed out of office.
6. Richard Pombo of California. Stomped convincingly. Kid Oakland is the man.
7. Marilyn Musgrave of Colorado. Tragically, she won with 46% of the vote.
8. Mean Jean Schmidt of Ohio. Won by 2323 votes.
9. Barbara Cubin of Wyoming. Ahead by 970 votes with 99% reporting.
10. Mike Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania. Lost by 1521 votes.
It’s probably not appropriate to use this day to criticize Rahm Emanuel. However, he interjected himself into the Illinois-06 race to put Tammy Duckworth in over the wishes of progressives in the district. He then poured some three million dollars into the race. Looking around the country, we lost races in FL-13, NC-08, NM-01, WY-AL, three seats in New York, PA-06, etc. by infinitesimal margins. Any one of those races might have gone our way with a little more balanced approach by the DCCC. Depending on recounts, some of them still might go our way.
Emanuel did a very good overall job. I want to give him his due, which is a hearty congratulations and a big ‘thank you’ for all his hard work. But I also want Emanuel to notice the victories of Patrick Murphy (PA-08) who got no early support from him, of Jerry McNerney (CA-11) who had to overcome a primary challenge from a Rahm candidate, of John Hall (NY-19) who was ignored, of Paul Hodes (NH-02) and Tim Walz (MN-01) who were championed by the netroots, of Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), a citizen activist and social worker who Rahm gave almost no support to, of Jon Tester (MT-Sen), who had to beat Chuck Schumer’s DLC candidate, and Jim Webb who was also a netroots candidate.
Many other netroots’ candidates (some that I listed above) came within a whisper of victory.
Now, as to my predictions:
I predicted a House pickup of 30 seats (with a chance for 36). I got some of the races wrong, but right now it looks like we picked up 29, and we still might reach or exceed 30. I am disappointed with our performance in upstate New York, with the devastating loss of PA-06, with Ken Lucas’s collapse in KY-04. I thought we would win FL-13, NM-01, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, NC-08, CT-04, and others. We could have done a lot better. But my prediction, in terms of numbers, was dead-on.
I predicted a 50-50 Senate with a lengthy recount in Missouri to determine control. I predicted we would win every contested seat except Tennessee, that Lieberman would win. I got it wrong. The recount will be in Virginia instead of Missouri. And, while I predicted we would eventually lose the Missouri recount (and therefore the Senate), it now appears that we will win the Virginia recount and gain the Senate. Of course, this all depends on Tester holding on in Montana (which is much closer than I anticipated).
I don’t think I could have been much more accurate in my predictions. Maybe someone will pay me to make predictions in 2008.
We know that Chris’s predictions sucked. How were your predictions? How did you do with your wish list?
you utterly ROCKED, BooMan.
Re my wish list – bringing us home from Iraq is right at the top. And I hope we can leave them with SOMETHING useful as we exit.
i was kinda hoping for a bloody revolution.
you know like mass protests and strikes and burning shit down….real protests, not those parades with puppets we have been seeing the last 30 years….but i guess this is better since they have all the guns.
im shocked jean schmidt got reelected…..whats with those people? im shocked lois murphy didnt win but those negative ads did her in…they were incessant and they worked….thats what you get for trying to stay positive and ignore them.
im looking forward to the philly mayoral race….i expect a knock down drag out brawl.
Always helpful to bear in mind, too, that outright fraud will be given cover by this season’s superior political strategy.
Unless we really are as easily led by the nose as all that ..
CNN announces Tester is the winner.
Hi Booman,
Isn’t Gates a poppy Bush loyalist? I’m listening to NPR’s special coverage and it is reported Jr tried to bring Gates into his team sometime ago but he said, ” No thanks.” Also, when first proposed, Gates said that Negroponte’s post was a bad idea, another layer of bureacracy.
Hmmm, how the earth has rotated overnight. Who said it wasn’t a Dem tsunami.
OK, same interview with Ken Rudden? that Webb D-VA has an improbable lead of several thousand votes and they’re hearing it would not trigger a recount and or that the GOP are likely to concede soon…. Harry Reid is elevated because there are absentee votes yet to be counted from northern VA – heavily favored Dem territory.
No. my hearing is good.. no hangover from prohibited stuff.
Patrick Leahy, a maple of a guy, now being interviewed… commenting Webb comfortably ahead….
Important statement in that special NPR coverage by Sen. Patrick Leahy, incoming chairman of Sen. Judiciary Committee. “We’ll revisit torture, repeal the removal of habeas corpus.”
I’m holding him to it. I appreciated his stand against it’s repeal.
I knew that John Hall would win the moment that I started doing phonebanking for him. That’s right folks, I was behind his unexpected win. Just call me the kingmaker from now on. 😉
Oh, predictions? Democrats did better than I expected.
Mr. Kingmaker from over here :o)
I’m keeping tabs on VA Senate via CNN’s website. Check this out.
At 10:19am, they listed the vote totals as:
Webb 1,170,766 (50%)
Allen 1,162,719 (49%)
Parker 26,048 ( 1%)
The current totals listed (as of 1:04pm) are:
Webb 1,169,285 (50%)
Allen 1,162,577 (49%)
Parker 26,048 ( 1%)
I think it is probable that it was just a technical glitch or otherwise an honest mistake.
But, let’s be diligent and keep an eye on it, yes? It does seem suspicious to me that Webb lost about 1,500 votes and Allen lost about 150.
Looks like Rove’s last stand, ej.
Supposedly he was happy to lose the House, but pledged to fight for the Senate.
This is where the feces will fly.
Let me please interject one thing here….I was not for Ford here in TN. YOu all know my story….I am really amazed as to how close it really was. That should tell ppl in my state that they better beware….time is on our side..2 years down the path, there will be hell to pay in the 08 election.
It really depends on what the new 110th congress can get done in the interim of time. I personally will be watching on all levels. I intend on sending off a letter to Tanner that he better be according to the new leadership too. I have my doubts about blue dogs tho. I WILL BE WATCHING!!!! as I hope all of you will be. Hold their feet to the fire….please that is all I ask of you folks. I will be working to do likewise here. hugs and gloat away….you all deserve the right to do this..no matter what the pointage spread was….The dems carried the night…my prayers are now with Webb. What with him and with Sanders, I hope we now can get things done, for the first time in over a decade. America is great and it is time to show the world this too….Get out of Iraq in a reasonable manner and on a time line. Get our equalibrium back….Just hugs to all of you for hanging in there with all of us who are independents that have no leverage….I love you all!
I predicted 23 house seats, 3 senate, also that we wouldn’t know the final results for days if not weeks. I sure never expected to know last night as much as I did and to put the icing on the cake I did not expect Rumsfeld resignation this morning.
Well I am not ready to pay you for predictions yet but you did a good job and btw I got a kick out of seeing such a good pic of you last night on CG’s diary.
Hugs booman, I don’t think you are a hugger but you can’t refuse one over the internet. We did far better than we had hoped for and it really is Fitzmas, even with out the Fitz.
Speaking of Fitz, where is he?
About Rummy: far as I can tell, this is just about the end of Neocon legitimacy. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
I am not impressed with Emanuel trying to say the Blue Dog dems won this election.
A bunch of his favored candidates (like duckworth, bless her heart) lost. And a bunch of netroots candidates won.
I liked atrios’ take, and firedoglake’s take on the situation too.
But right now, I’m just going to bask in the glory of control of the house and senate, Rummy’s resignation, and Bush’s DISASTROUS press conference.
Holy shit, was he about to lose his mind or what?!?
Not only did Bush crumble before the press, but protests within both earshot from the White House are apparently being allowed to take place, further fracturing his own special reality. Names of the fallen are being called, Cindy Sheehan present.
.. protests within earshot of the WhiteHouse etc.
Cindy carries within her all that is good and precious about America. An independent spirit, no fear, and a healthy set of lungs. In heart and solidarity with her.
Good job – and I’m glad I was wrong about Missouri too.
My prediction–the House yes, a 50-50 Senate, w/Cheney casting tie breakers. Still haven’t heard re: Montana, but all of the pending recounts and election fraud…
Sounds like more of the same, but with mostly token protestsif you ask me.
Media called it for Tester a little while ago, unless something’s changed since I finally decided to turn off the box & rest my weary head.
Thanks–stayed up late here and finally just collapsed. Eerie similarity to ’04–went to sleep thinking Kerry would be President and we know what happenned. Counting’s not over by a longshot. (I actually expect fraud and court challenges to re-counts.)
You’ve earned it.
Who, me? Thank you, Street Kid — but those who put their boots on the ground & did the heavy lifting deserve it far more than I do. I just fidgeted.
🙂
It’s not so much that my predictions sucked, it’s that reality has a well known anti-Chris bias.
Evolution done worked some magic on you Chris :o)
that it appears that my hope was fulfilled — they couldn’t steal three elections in a row.
And very pleased that McNerney prevailed over Pombo — guess I won’t have to worry about oil derricks off the California coast or our national parks sold to the highest bidder.
And I’m EXTREMELY pleased with Jack Murtha saying on MSNBC that the House will use its subpoena powers to investigate the purported “reasons” we went to war in Iraq.
And I’ve got to limit my computer time today…my eyes are killing me (had an eye exam this morning and they’re still dilated) and I’m in desperate need of a nap…
I thought we’d win MO, otherwise pretty much agreed with you, Boo. Ha. Most of us around here did way better than the “mainstream” pundit class, who sneeringly allowed that the Dems might turn over 3 Senate seats at most, even before all the polls closed. Sure would be gratifying to see these pampered pets’ employment based on performance — we’d see a whole new lineup.
I think you’re wrong on Duckworth, Boo. She was recruited by Durbin, who is hardly a DINO. I’m not sure anybody could have done better than Duckworth, whom I came to admire as the campaign went on. That ANY Dem got to 49% in Henry Hyde’s district is something of a miracle. She was done in by the lyingest, most evil attack ads I’ve ever seen. Peter Roskam may take Pombo’s slot as the most disgusting, dishonest, son of a bitch in Congress. I hope Duckworth goes after him in two years and kicks his bastard ass all the way to Hell.
Regarding your number 8, Vic Wilson has not conceded. She has requested information on the number of provisional ballots cast and the number of absentee ballots still left to be counted from all 7 BOEs in her district. Keep in mind early voting via absentee ballot was heavily advertised and taken advantage of by many ordinary citizen – not just the military, so don’t give up yet!