At five in the morning (Eastern Time) on the morning after the election, here’s what Election ’06 looks like:
* The polls leading up to Election Day were mostly pretty accurate.
* Despite reports of widespread problems with electronic voting machines, and a flurry of last-minute Republican smear tactics and dirty tricks, there was no hidden Republican strategy that could even make a significant dent in, let alone turn back, voter anger at the direction of the country. Voters were heard, loud and clear.
* A recount is inevitable in the nearly deadlocked race in Virginia, and with most of the votes counted in Missouri and Montana, Democrats are holding onto slim but significant leads. If each of those three results holds –- and they should –- Democrats will control the U.S. Senate. (Unless Joe Lieberman changes his mind and caucuses with the Republicans. But that’s not likely, either.)
* Over in the House, with over a dozen races still too close to call, Democrats look to be picking up 30-35 seats. They will have a solid majority, and progressives will chair many of the most powerful committees.
* And some of the most obnoxious members of Congress have been forcibly retired. California’s Richard Pombo is gone (although, alas, not John Doolittle). Arizona’s batshit crazy J.D. Hayworth got his wingnuts handed to him. So did the even crazier Florida senatorial candidate (and now former Congresswoman) Katherine Harris. In Pennsylvania, Don Sherwood choked, and Curt Weldon will have plenty of time to play golf with Serbian thugs. Conrad Burns looks to have embarrassed one too many Montanans. George Allen may have done the same in Virginia. The former seats of Tom DeLay and Mark Foley now belong to Democrats. And so on; add your favorite forcibly retired blight on the public payroll here.
In other words, voters had had enough. And, contrary to some pre-election punditry, theirs was not a random “throw out anyone in power” spasm of anti-incumbency. No incumbent Democrats lost -– not in the Senate, not in the House, not in the governors’ races, where Democrats for the first time in ages will now live in a majority of governors’ mansions. Democrats didn’t even lose any open seats they previously held.
This was an anti-Republican verdict, a sweeping one, aimed squarely at both the Bush administration and at a Republican-led Congress that has refused to exercise its constitutionally required powers of oversight. This was a vote against Republican arrogance, incompetence, extremism, cronyism, and criminality, but it was also a vote for an assertive Congress and against one-party rule. And this verdict came in spite of, not because of, Democrats.
Democrats as a party, and the party’s most visible figures, spent much of this election savaging Bush (it was about time!) but studiously avoiding taking any true leadership positions themselves. The war in Iraq was by far the election’s biggest issue, but because the country’s voters and the Democrats’ activist base and netroots made it that way, not because Democrats themselves wanted to talk about Iraq much (or, in some cases, at all) or had a coherent plan.
Voters won this election — not Democrats. This election was about exercising checks and balances, and Democratic candidates were the only available tool to accomplish that end. The two biggest upshots of this are very clear for the Democratic Party.
First, over the next two years, as Congress (hopefully) flexes its muscles and aspirants begin their serious campaigns for the 2008 presidential race, there will be a ferocious, and probably inconclusive, battle for control of the Democratic Party. The blogosphere, and Internet organizing in general, played an unprecedented role in the 2006 election, and the populist impulse this represents is in direct contrast to the ossified Beltway creatures who have traditionally controlled much of the party’s hierarchy. The latter won’t go quietly into the night, but they no longer have a monopoly on serious fundraising or on candidate recruitment. And the passion is all with the populists.
Secondly, this election was not about choosing Democrats; it was about repudiating Republicans. Now that Democrats, for the first time in six years, have some serious influence in Washington, the public will expect them to use it, and use it in a way that’s perceived as better than what they’ve replaced. If they don’t, the freshman class of 2006, elected largely for who they were not, could just as easily be gone in 2008.
For both of these reasons — and regardless of how the battle for control of the Senate resolves -– progressives should celebrate for a moment this morning. But only for a moment; there’s a lot of work to do. There’s the damage from a couple of catastrophic wars to address, runaway spending to rein in, an exodus of jobs to stem, global warming to get serious about, a sane future energy policy to craft, and right on down the list. D.C. is still a lobbyist-dominated town, regardless of which party is in power, and none of these things will happen without a push from the public. A strong, steady, well-informed, vigilant, passionate push.
The public shoved mightily on Tuesday. It’s time to keep on pushin’.