This is a political blog and I have to constantly find new things to write about that are political. That isn’t always easy, which is why I tolerate the occassional guinea pig posting (even though some people think such posts prevent or delay the perfection of existence). One of the things that the war in Iraq and this past election has done is to decimate the Republican Party’s presidential aspirants field. Let me make this obvious.
Bill Frist retired so that he could run for President. That’s a pipe dream now. He is reviled by the base of the Republican Party for being ineffective and costing them the majority in the Senate. He is reviled by moderates for his remote diagnosis of Terri Schiavo. He no longer holds office, he has no power, no one owes him any favors. He may still run for office to try to rebuild his image, but he’s got no more chance of winning the nomination than Alan Keyes.
George Allen never really wanted to be a Senator from Virginia; he thought the job was boring. But he needed the position as a springboard for his run for the Presidency. I always thought Allen was too transparently stupid to be President. But then I looked at the current occupant and reconsidered. Turns out he’s too racist to be President. Shit. He’s too racist to be Senator from Virginia. He won’t even bother running. Apparently, he’s shell-shocked.
As absurd as it might sound, a lot of people used to bandy about Rick Santorum’s name as a possible Presidential contender. That’s obviously been proven a pipe dream.
Rudy Guiliani saw his star rise very high on 9/11. In my opinion he earned it. His performance on that day and in the days after was flawless. He’s proven that he has the stuff to deal with a major crisis. His problems began when the White House decided to appoint his former police chief to be head of the Homeland Security Department. That’s when we found out that Bernie Kerik had mob connections, mistresses, corrupt business dealings, and worse. We later learned about his hopelessly pathetic performance trying to build a police force in Baghdad. If Guiliani rose to power on his anti-mob credentials, finding out his police chief was up to his ears with the mob kind of took the legs out of his image. Guiliani always faced a major hurdle in winning the GOP nomination because of his pro-gay, pro-choice views. He might make a credible showing in the primaries, but his chances seem remote.
Jeb Bush- His brother has been such a failure it is hard to see how the country could embrace another Bush in this cycle.
When we look at Congress, there are not many options for the Republicans. Their most attractive candidates are the the ones that they are least inclined to support: John McCain, Chuck Hagel, and Lindsay Graham. The House and Senate leadership has been discredited and decimated (and even indicted).
There are two Governors that are getting some attention. One is Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. Huckabee has been a fairly successful executive but he is a southern baptist (former preacher). He got his education at Ouachita Baptist University, and attended Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary in Fort Worth, Texas. Is America ready for someone with that background?
Mitt Romney was a fairly successful Governor from Massachusetts and he has a lot of attractive qualities. However, he is a Mormon who got his bachelor’s degree from Brigham Young University. To get an idea of why this might be a problem, check this out:
In the late 1960s, the percentage of Americans who said they would not vote for a Jewish or Catholic presidential candidate was in the double digits; by 1999, those numbers had fallen to 6 and 4 percent, respectively (roughly the same as the percentage of voters who say they wouldn’t vote for a Baptist). Compare that to the 17 percent of Americans who currently say they would have qualms electing a Mormon to the White House. That number hasn’t changed one whit since 1967, the year that Romney’s father considered a presidential run (he abandoned the effort after making a gaffe about how the military “brainwashed” him into supporting the Vietnam War).
Another Republican that is considering a run for the Presidency is Newt Gingrich. He’s polarizing, but then so is Hillary. If they both won their nominations someone would have to win.
If the race comes down to Hagel, McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, and, say, Sam Brownback, I’d have to favor Gingrich as the likely victor. Either Hagel or McCain would be extremely strong general election candidates. But can they win their nomination? Perhaps the Republicans will go for them, thinking about ‘electability’. But if they go with their hearts, the Republicans will not accept them.
I oppose Hillary’s run for the Presidency, but for those that say she is unelectable, consider the opposition.
