Swopa wisely explains why the Baker Commission doesn’t matter. Go read it. Long story short, the Shiites are not alarmed at the prospect of an all-out civil war that they think they can win. They won’t compromise.
The situation in Iraq is “even worse than we thought,” with key Iraqi leaders showing no willingness to compromise to avoid increasing violence, said Leon Panetta, a member of the high-powered advisory group that will recommend new options for the war.
. . . Private assessments by government officials are much more grim than what is said in public, Panetta said, “and we left some of those sessions shaking our heads over how bad it is in Iraq.”
U.S. forces can’t control sectarian violence and powerful militias. One of the most disturbing findings, Panetta said, is that many Shiite religious leaders who are a big part of the government have no interest in deals or compromises with Sunnis and other groups, and are “playing for time because they say it’s their show.”
The reality that is Iraq is a bitter pill for everyone involved. The best argument for a continued American and British presence there has now become, ironically, a humanitarian argument. We’re there, essentially, to protect the Sunnis from a slaughter. It’s not a whole lot different from the reason why we intervened in Kosovo, and the same considerations lead people to criticize us for not getting involved in Rwanda or the Sudan.
Of course, it is a whole lot more complicated than that. The President recently pointed out that if we leave Iraq we could be leaving the oil in the hands of terrorists. That actually isn’t very likely. It’s more likely that we will leave it in the hands of Kurds and Arab Shi’ites, who may or may not agree to share the proceeds or divide them equitably. The Sunni Arabs will not accept this, and it’s quite possible the Turks will not either. As The Clash asked:
¿Me debo ir o quedarme?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
An’ if I stay it will be double
We really need to consider the difference between our national security and certain American businessmen’s interests in Iraq’s natural resources. These two issues have some relation to each other, but they are not synonymous. Depending on details, they may even be mutually exclusive. Our national security should not be a racket. Our boys and girls should not be fighting a war to keep China from developing some Middle Eastern oilwells. It’s not worth it. And that is really all that is left to fight for over there.
I’m interested to see what the Baker commission recommends. They met with the President today. Retreat with a happy face should be their goal. Maybe one day soon we’ll learn that Charlie Don’t Surf and start minding our manners. In the meantime, we can’t continue to arm and train a government that is only gathering strength so that they can commit genocide on the religious minorities in their country. It’s time to declare bankruptcy and put a ‘for sale’ sign on the Pottery Barn. Beijing will be calling.
Heckuva job.
