While the fighing continues in Iraq and bodies pile up, the Shia leaders are acting like they have won and are taking steps reflective of their perceived victory. Prime MInister Maliki moved quickly this week to advance Iranian interests in the region while continuing to request that U.S. forces stay in Iraq to help protect the Shia-dominated government from the Sunni insurgents.
Today’s announcement that Iraq and Syria re-establshished diplomatic relations after 28 year old break up is a dramatic signal that Iran’s dominance in the region is spreading at the expense of the United States. Quite a counterpoint to the spectacle of the Bush Administration officials, like John Bolton, condemning the Syrians and the Iranians for meddling in Lebanon. Wild gesticulations by angry Bush Administration folks were met by a collective yawn among the Shia in the Middle East.
Talk about chutzpah, not only did the Iraqi leaders, whom we are funding and protecting, bury the hatchet with Damascus, with the tacit approval of Teheran, but they also called on the United States to stay in Iraq for the time being. Why should they fight the Sunni insurgents when America can do the dirty work?
The restoration of Iraqi/Syrian ties comes on the threshhold of an Iranian, Iraqi, and Syrian summit. So, while the United States displays its impotence against Iran and Syria, Iraq is moving ahead with plans to enlist its neighbors in a concerted effort to quell the Sunni insurgents.
In this regard the United States is laboring under the myth of the foreign fighter. While it is true that jihadists from other countries continue to try to make their way into Iraq to fight the crusaders (i.e., the United States), most of the violence in Iraq is carried out by indigenous insurgents and militia. That means our efforts to “fight the terrorists” there before they attack us in Peoria is totally irrelevant to the dynamics actually driving the conflict. In fact, preliminary stats for 2006 indicate that the dramatic increase in international terrorist attacks we have seen during the last two years is now on the decline even though the violence in Iraq continues to spiral upward.
The clear losers in this new equation are the Sunni insurgents and tribes. With Iraq becoming more segregated along sectarian lines everyday, the question of dividing the old Iraq into three separate areas appears moot–we are already in a state of de facto partition. They will continue to fight the Iraqi Shia and protect their ethnic areas. However, they will confront a major resource crisis because they lack oil. They will be forced to rely on the support of Sunnis in Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. We should not be surprised to see Jordan emerge as the major infiltration and resupply route for Iraqi Sunnis.
Things get even more interesting with the murder of Pierre Gemayel in Lebanon. U.S. efforts to spin the story as further evidence of Syrian and Iranian perfidy is gaining little headway. Pat Lang has an excellent take on this. If a new civil war breaks out in Lebanon, Iran and Syria, not the United States, are best positioned to take advantage of the conflict to bolster their respective positions in the region.
Within Iraq the Shia militia have been careful to avoid a head on confrontation with US forces. Some believe this reflects their fear of engaging the technologically superior Americans. Perhaps. But it maybe that they recognize that a US military effort to destroy Sunni insurgents in Iraq ultimately works in their longterm interests. That status quo will remain intact as long as the United States does not try to disarm or dismantle the Shia militia.
In the event the new US reinforcements decide to dismantle Shia militia we should not be shocked when the Shia militia move quickly to shutdown the U.S. resupply line that runs from Kuwait to Baghdad.
The United States now confronts the dilemma of fighting on behalf of a Shia dominated government in Baghdad, which in turn bolsters the position of Iran, which the United States continues to try to isolate in the international arena, or going after the Iraqi government elected by the Shia majority in Iraq. It is too late for a political abortion. The newborn Shia led government of Maliki is starting to find its diplomatic legs. He may not be able to keep the lights on and the water flowing, but he certainly is pulling our chain. And the results signal a big black eye for the U.S. in the region.
I always look forward to your take on the mess the US is in, in that region.
I was wondering about the Ret. Gen. Batiste`s seemingly “about face” when he was on “Hardball” today with Chris Mathews. I had thought he had some very valid points in the past, but today he was spouting spin I would not imagine him to be capable of. It`s like he was injected with “Stupid”, [not my coinage]. What do you think made him change his mind. You state “United States is laboring under the myth of the foreign fighter.”, which I`ve believed since the “dead enders” statement, so why, now, would Batiste be talking about 911, Jihadists & “outlaws” & not be
able to focus on what`s really happening. He seems to be advocating a major escalation now so we don`t have to fight a much worse war later. It seemed a parrallel to “fight them there, so we don`t have to fight them here”.
This may be a little crass, but my manners suggest I wish others a “Happy Thanksgiving”. Personally, I`d abolish all celebrations till this conflict of choice is terminated.
Happy Thanksgiving to you & yours.
This is an interesting analysis of the situation.
I’m a little confused though. If the main issue in Iraq is the violence between Sunni and Shia, why is Syria cooperating with Iran? Iran being primarily Shia and Syria being primarily Sunni.
This Iraq fiaso certainly has backfired on us. My thinking is that we’ve also put ourselves in a position of ceding major power influence in the region to Russia and China.
Best,
Jeff
That’s one of the real untold stories the public here is never going to get-that China and Russia have consolidated power in the region through their dealings with Iran. All due to the pigheaded stupidity of this administration believing that Iran is ‘evil, evil and more evil’. Bush and company run around braying about the evils of Iran(with only Israel listening) while the rest of the world stepped up and made friends/played nice and have made us look like fools.
The public doesn’t realize it yet but are no longer a world power thanks to bush…not economically, militarily and certainly not morally.
Why should they fight the Sunni insurgents when America can do the dirty work?
DAH! And WHY is this Shia victory outcome a surprise to anyone that can add one and one?????????????????????
I mean the most powerful military in the world goes about dismantling the Sunni power apparatus in Iraq, and this friggin administration is surprised that the majority Shia, (also known as most likely to be and demand Islamic theocracy) closely controlled and associated with Iran (the capital of Islamic theocracy),comes to power with our help. Dah again!
through our own arrogance and ignorance as a nation. We thought we knew best and tried to force it onto those who didnt want it yet again. It seems we will never learn and are destined to continue making the mistake of trying to force our vision of our own flawed democracy on others who do not want it and for whom it is not suited. Then we reagrd the life of teh other as so low. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis can be slaughtered and it hardly gets reported compared to one dead Israeli which gets reported repeatedly. We have whole news sections on the the difficult life a kid in an Israeli school near Gaza and yet there is nothing on kids in Palestinian schools. We value the life of one of our troops so highly that they can maching gun a car load of innocent Iraqis who get too close and nothing is done. We say nothing and reject a ceasefire as Israel bombs Lebanon killing mostly civilians, and yet if one politician from the “love America” is asissinated we go all crazy over Syria even when logic tells us that the assassination benefits only the ruling clique in Lebanon. How do we think this kind of hing goes down on the Arab street? And I dont mean with those puppet governments that we support by equipping and training their secret polices. Maybe we need to face a totally overt and humiliating defeat somewhere before we can be considered a reasonable and responsible member of the international community. Oh but we got that in Vietnam and refused to learn the lessons and rewrote history in a way that even Stalin would not have attempted.
Excellent analysis, Larry.