Gee, pundits and news folks asking the question, “could Iraq have a civil war”? Attention world. It is a civil war and has been underway for some time. Here’s what I wrote one year ago (November 20, 2005) (and yes, I get an “I-told-you-so” victory lap):
The multiple threats we face in Iraq will not be solved by an election.
The differences dividing the ethno religious groups in the territory of
Iraq cannot be bridged by a group hug or a sit down around a conference
table. We have ripped the scab off of an ancient wound and unleashed a
beast that cannot be calmed through diplomacy. We do not have the force
structure in place in Iraq to contain the burgeoning civil war.
Instead, we are becoming pawns that each side of this ethnic quagmire
will use to justify their particular agendas. The British learned the
hard way in the 1920s. It remains to be seen if we are willing to learn
anything from history or just destined to repeat it.
We now know the answer. There is no learning going on at the White House or among many in the news business. Speaking of learning. Pat Lang almost had an aneurysm listening to Norah O’Donnell pretending to be a blond bimbo on Hardball today. Here are Pat’s answers to questions posed by O’Donnell:
Norah O’Donnell asked the following on “Hardball.”
Question. What has happened in the last 48 hours to make the situation so much different in Iraq?
Answer. Nothing. This civil
war has been building gradually ever since the end of direct US rule
(CPA) as the communities fight it out for power and wealth. It was
inevitable that they would do so. Why people could not see that is a
continuing mystery. The civil war has simply reached this level in its
process of “organic growth. It has little to do with us.
Question. Is this our worst nightmare?
Answer. Hell No!
The civil war and the insurgencies will continue to develop. Our worst
nightmare would be a total disintegration of Iraq into a war of all
against all, and the situation is headed in that direction. We should
look to the security of our forces and embassy. NOW!!
As an unsolicited bit of advice I would suggest to the Bush
Administration that they stop thinking of Maliki as a national
government head and start thinking of him as a Shia partisan leader
seeking the benefit if his community at the expense of others. NOW!!
My money is still on the Shia to prevail. May be time to dust off those helicopter landing pads on top of the U.S. Embassy in the Green Zone. This triumph of democracy is running into some problems. Is Saddam available?
The situation in Iraq is beyond anarchy. There’s no one that can control it anymore. Maliki, Sadr, Sistani, Hakim, Dulaimi and all the tribal sheikhs have lost all control of the myriads of militias. Iraq is in a spiral of ever escalating reprisals. Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran also will not be able to do much at this point. Over 500,000 Iraqis have been slaughtered. Probably every family has a victim. The rage of revenge is all that matters.
George W. Bush unleashed this mayhem in a war of choice. US forces no matter how many we send cannot influence the course in Iraq. These are not formal militias with good command and control fighting it out. This is anarchy. The US military has no idea who is doing what to whom since the number of actors are so large. Simplistic notions of Sunni insurgents or Mahdi army or Badr Brigades do not really provide a sense of the lawlessness and chaos.
The best solution to protect our troops is to get them out now while its still possible. The worst decision would be to consign them to a fighting retreat at a later date. But unfortunately GWB is not going to take responsibility and pull US forces out of harms way and the Dems have no real recourse other than defund which they will not do lest they be attacked for not supporting the troops.
Until the Iraqi factions either get exhausted or a group of factions align and suppress the others this conflagration will continue to spiral.
GWB needs to be impeached for leading the country into a war on false premises, then unleashing a sectarian conflict that has evolved into anarchy and caused a massive loss to US military reputation and US credibility in the world which will lead to increased terrorism.
I`m afraid that what will happen is amid all the chaos & confusion, the Sunnis or {name one} another group will be able to stage a catastrophic attack in the green zone killing hundreds of American troops. Then what, call for more troops & “Go Long”, or ask Norah what we should do.
I know Oregon/Oregon State is a big rivalry, but I didn’t think they would send a network reporter. Neither team is ranked this year.
It was a good game, though…
“OSU 30, UO 28
CORVALLIS – The quarterback who was yelling at his own student section last month and the placekicker who needed to prove once and for all that he was clutch each found redemption Saturday at Reser Stadium.
Oregon State’s Matt Moore was carried off the field by some of those same students after OSU’s thrilling 30-28 victory over Oregon Saturday in the 100th Civil War game….”
http://www.blogs.oregonlive.com/oregonian/default.asp?item=320088
Iraq is long past any solutions. It will end up like Vietnam with Americans and Iraqis clinging to the last helicopter out.