David Sanger tells it like it is:
In the cacophony of competing plans about how to deal with Iraq, one reality now appears clear: despite the Democrats’ victory this month in an election viewed as a referendum on the war, the idea of a rapid American troop withdrawal is fast receding as a viable option.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff are signaling that too rapid an American pullout would open the way to all-out civil war. The bipartisan Iraq Study Group has shied away from recommending explicit timelines in favor of a vaguely timed pullback. The report that the panel will deliver to President Bush next week would, at a minimum, leave a force of 70,000 or more troops in the country for a long time to come, to train the Iraqis and to insure against collapse of a desperately weak central government.
Even the Democrats, with an eye toward 2008, have dropped talk of a race for the exits, in favor of a brisk stroll. But that may be the only solace for Mr. Bush as he returns from a messy encounter with Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki.
I gotta run out and meet up with a friend that just flew from Dubai (and boy are her arms tired) but I just want to make a few brief remarks here.
Iraq is now a complete clusterfuck. The Shi’a government is ostensibly our ally, but they are really just an engine for settling scores with the Sunnis and expanding the influence of the Shi’a brand of Islam (that they share with Iran and Hezbollah). The Sunnis are indeed behaving badly, both toward U.S. troops and the Iraqi government, but they are in a desperate fight for survival. Our main allies in the region are Sunnis (Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt). And they do not see the Sunnis in Iraq as al-Qaeda, or as mere insurgents. They see them as people that are being slaughtered and that may be totally wiped out if the U.S. pulls out.
They want us to stay even though the Sunnis we would be staying to protect are about 90% united on their desire for us to leave. And they are killing our troops to make their point.
If we leave our allies will begin fighting the Iraq government using our equipment and training.
Obviously, it is a lot more complicated (see Kurds), but that only makes the situation worse. The situation is SO bad, and so absurd, that any foreign policy thinker that spends two seconds thinking about it just begins to tremble at the magnitude of the problem. And as bad as things are right now, at least the problem is contained within Iraq. Therefore, no one is willing to advocate leaving.
The problem is that the American public will not wait for long. Any politician that runs on pulling out is going to be successful, and politicians that call for staying the course will be punished. You can blame the American people for this if you want, but it won’t change a damn thing. We do not have the resolve to stay in Iraq for no greater strategy than forestalling something worse.
So…
We might as well get out sooner rather than later because we are getting out regardless. And everyday we stay it costs a lot of money and people get hurt and killed.
You go to war with the public you have, not the public you might wish you have. And it is simply unrealistic to think that the American public is going to suddenly do an about face and support a draft or more troops or a greater commitment.
Just take a deep breath, say a little prayer, and take the plunge. Make the decision to get out of Iraq. Then convene a regional conference. No one wants all these people to die and we might be able to cobble together some kind of plan to keep things from spiraling totally out of control. But that is all we can do. We are going to have to take our lumps. There is no point in living in denial about it. Please. Start acting like grown-ups.
