Wow. Kos is calling the 2008 Democratic nomination for Obama. He was so cautious about predicting the midterms that I am surprised that he is going out on a limb so early for Obama. His first mistake is to call the Iowa caucuses for Governor Vilsack. I doubt Visack will do better than third there and may not even come in in the top five. Vilsack will benefit because Iowa hold caucuses, not primaries. But, even so, Democrats are not going to keen to vote for a sure loser. Did Kos witness the Kerry wave in Iowa or not? Sure, Dems will be slightly less desperate to win in 2008 than they were in 2004, but electability will still be foremost in the minds of Iowans in 2008. Ironically, this miscalculation on Kos’s part might actually bolster his case for Obama. If Obama wins in Iowa, then he really will have a good chance. But I have my doubts that Obama will be seen as the most electable option. Hillary still is the front-runner to win the Iowa caucuses.
It’s too early to predict the national mood in 2008. If nothing changes I think Hillary will be seen as the most electable candidate. That may seem crazy, but it’s hard to see the likes of Bayh, Biden, or Dodd getting much traction. I don’t know why Kos focuses on Richardson. He seems like a long-shot to even get a New York Times beat reporter assigned to his campaign. He’ll do nothing in Iowa, and it will take a miracle for him to prevail in Nevada.
Here is how I see it. I have no idea who will win in Iowa, but it will most likely be either Hillary, Edwards, or Obama. If Hillary does not come in first, she will be in real trouble. In that case, I don’t see her winning in Nevada either. She’ll have to rebound in New Hampshire. But if she wins in Iowa she may prove unstoppable.
My best guess is that Edwards needs someone to beat Hiilary in Iowa, take Nevada, come in at least in the top three in New Hampshire, and then win South Carolina. If he takes both Nevada and South Carolina, he might be able to win.
Obama is not well positioned to win any of the early states, although South Carolina’s heavily African-American Democratic Party gives him an excellent shot at winning there. The question is whether he can arrive in South Carolina still standing.
Obama is a very skilled and charismatic politician and he may swamp all challengers from the starting gun. But, if we are going to use a less personality based analysis, it’s impossible to put Obama in a front-running position. His alleged electability is entirely predicated on his charisma, not his record, connections, fundraising, campaign team, or geographical considerations. It is a no-brainer that Hillary is the front-runner and her perceived electability problems are badly overblown. In order to be unelectable there have to be other candidates that are more electable. Hillary has successfully positioned herself directly in the center (or right) of the Democratic Party and the netroots is going to oppose her with all the piss and vinegar we can muster. Every bit of it will serve to increase her perceived electability.
Obama, Edwards, and Hillary all have a real chance. The others will need a change in the national mood.
