Wow. Kos is calling the 2008 Democratic nomination for Obama. He was so cautious about predicting the midterms that I am surprised that he is going out on a limb so early for Obama. His first mistake is to call the Iowa caucuses for Governor Vilsack. I doubt Visack will do better than third there and may not even come in in the top five. Vilsack will benefit because Iowa hold caucuses, not primaries. But, even so, Democrats are not going to keen to vote for a sure loser. Did Kos witness the Kerry wave in Iowa or not? Sure, Dems will be slightly less desperate to win in 2008 than they were in 2004, but electability will still be foremost in the minds of Iowans in 2008. Ironically, this miscalculation on Kos’s part might actually bolster his case for Obama. If Obama wins in Iowa, then he really will have a good chance. But I have my doubts that Obama will be seen as the most electable option. Hillary still is the front-runner to win the Iowa caucuses.
It’s too early to predict the national mood in 2008. If nothing changes I think Hillary will be seen as the most electable candidate. That may seem crazy, but it’s hard to see the likes of Bayh, Biden, or Dodd getting much traction. I don’t know why Kos focuses on Richardson. He seems like a long-shot to even get a New York Times beat reporter assigned to his campaign. He’ll do nothing in Iowa, and it will take a miracle for him to prevail in Nevada.
Here is how I see it. I have no idea who will win in Iowa, but it will most likely be either Hillary, Edwards, or Obama. If Hillary does not come in first, she will be in real trouble. In that case, I don’t see her winning in Nevada either. She’ll have to rebound in New Hampshire. But if she wins in Iowa she may prove unstoppable.
My best guess is that Edwards needs someone to beat Hiilary in Iowa, take Nevada, come in at least in the top three in New Hampshire, and then win South Carolina. If he takes both Nevada and South Carolina, he might be able to win.
Obama is not well positioned to win any of the early states, although South Carolina’s heavily African-American Democratic Party gives him an excellent shot at winning there. The question is whether he can arrive in South Carolina still standing.
Obama is a very skilled and charismatic politician and he may swamp all challengers from the starting gun. But, if we are going to use a less personality based analysis, it’s impossible to put Obama in a front-running position. His alleged electability is entirely predicated on his charisma, not his record, connections, fundraising, campaign team, or geographical considerations. It is a no-brainer that Hillary is the front-runner and her perceived electability problems are badly overblown. In order to be unelectable there have to be other candidates that are more electable. Hillary has successfully positioned herself directly in the center (or right) of the Democratic Party and the netroots is going to oppose her with all the piss and vinegar we can muster. Every bit of it will serve to increase her perceived electability.
Obama, Edwards, and Hillary all have a real chance. The others will need a change in the national mood.
Seriously, we need someone who actually knows what he or she is doing at this time and place in our country’s history. We’ve never had more at risk, morally, financially, diplomatically and environmentally.
Gore has never said he wouldn’t serve. He’s just not about to put himself out there if there isn’t a strong demand. I mean come on, the guy already won once. Who wants to have to win twice to be President? These battles are hard fought.
But he’s shown such a new, mature, warm, funny side of himself. Obama would blow away like a weed if Gore were to enter the race.
Don’t get me wrong. I really like Obama as a speaker. I’m waiting to see what he does in the Senate. I think he’s got the charisma and rhetoric to be our President someday. And gosh, he’s handsome as hell. I’d love to see THAT face every night on the news instead of the ape in chief. But Gore, sigh, that’s what our country really needs. I wish people would pave the way for the return of our true king (and I mean that in the most noble, positive sense.)
Right there with you. Way back when, the thing that really clenched my support for Clinton was his selection of Gore for VP.
Do you by any chance know Gore personally? There is something I need to tell him.
I wish! No – can’t help you there!
I’m on. Gore’s the one to beat.
Kos calling ’08 for Obama? maybe it make nice or that Adam Nagourney’s article in the NYT got to him. It’s reposted at Truthout.org
Obama Jolts ’08 Field
Clinton has way too much baggage.
“In Mr. Obama, Democrats have a prospective candidate who both underlines and compensates for the potential weaknesses that worry many Democrats about Mrs. Clinton.”
AMEN!
Obama is way too inexperienced to be president. Hillary is way too cynical to be president. The others mentioned in the post are equally uninspiring.
I want Al Gore!
I don’t believe the Democrats will nominate an African-American and I certainly don’t think the United States will elect one. I would love to be proved wrong, though Obama is not my first choice. But this remains a white supremacist country when push comes to shove. And who is President is part of shove.
I think Edwards will win Iowa. Kos in essence may be giving Obama that dreaded “L”iberal label so he can be cast asided as not being electable. (okay conspiracy theory, but think about it). It makes you wonder why the sudden shift by Kos, no.
But you haven’t proven Kos is all that liberal..! đŸ˜€
ha ha and there in lies the conspiracy theory…why would he do such a thing?
I am starting to have doubts Edwards will do well in Iowa. Obama will draw off a lot of votes.
Well, as far as I am concerned after reading this new revelation today, I hardly think kos or anyone else can push anyone in the democrat party if they continue to talk like this one man does. I suppose this man did not get the memo on this past election.
from newsweek today
I am so PO’ed over this article. I am still trembling over it.
Our choices are a candidate who has had a 40% negative rating for a decade, a Senator with no real record but gives a good speech and a guy who got beat in a debate by Cheney? Those are your choices. Listen. If they nominate Jeb, Neil or any other remotely related Bush we would all work harder than ever. If we nominate Hillary we turn on their base, simply as that and they will work hard.
It’s possible all the choices are not in the field and if we are goingto nominate new senators than Jon Tester is the right guy. Since we can’t do that (can we?) than let’s hope we have more than the crop of VP’s in waiting that are out there now.
This is Markos’ jump the shark moment.
You have nailed it! Totally! I’ve been trying to think of some way of describing how ridiculous and vain Markos’ “non-endorsement” of Obama is — and you found exactly the right comparison. I’d give you a 10 if I could.
Hillary has successfully positioned herself directly in the center (or right) of the Democratic Party and the netroots is going to oppose her with all the piss and vinegar we can muster.
For many months the pundits have been calling her a “frontrunner” and I’m real tired of it.
I have not forgotten how the West coast and a few other populous states back East were ignored when Kerry was settled on before our primaries. Who does the Party think we are, pistachios?
My current druthers hasn’t been mentioned. I was wondering about him even before the spread on him in the recent Time: Waxman.
Richardson is a two term gov. and he has certified foreign policy experience and he was energy secretary.
Not worthy of a NYTimes reporter? Are you serious?
I’d vote for Obama but if Ford couldn’t carry TN, then it’s logical to assume Obama can’t carry a southern state and that makes him unelectable. Wish it were not but it is.
And think on this: while Biden and Bayh complicate matters for Hillary east of the Mis, who is going to stop Richardson in the Rocky Mt states? If he could win in CA, Hillary would be in a really bad spot.
Channing is calling 08 for Bill Richardon.
I am also interested in Richardson, only because I find the other options so wanting. Richard does have the requisite experience, and I imagine he will have a grasp of issues others such as Obama will lack. I am also very interested in the regional dynamics his candidacy will engender in the primary.
This is just too bizarre… how in the world can anyone predict a Presidential race almost 2 years in the future?
If there’s any question now Kos is too big for his britches, this is the proof of it.
Pax
because Obama really doesn’t have ANY credentials at this point. The news media have made him their darling, but I don’t think the public has as yet.
My fantasy. Nobody has a majority coming into the Convention, and they fight it out on the floor like they used to do in the old days. Not too likely, but it would be good for the party, given the number of excellent candidates available, and the free TV time it would generate. The Primaries ever since McGovern’s coup have achieved less and less in the way of nominating the best candidate, Clinton notwithstanding.
“Credentials”? Didn’t seem to stop the incumbent from winning. “The Kerry wave” in Iowa? In the caucuses the Kerry folks and the Edwards folks joined forces and made sure Dean was outnumbered. Of course this was not the only factor, there was money from Gephart for tv and all the media talk about Dean being “angry” as well plenty of mistakes that the Dean campaign made. If you are equating Obama and Dean as “sure losers,” I’ll accept your pairing but not your conclusion.
That number changed considerably once Gore was tossed in. there are two polls. Gore won HUGE on the one he was included on. Clark, Obama & Edwards were all neck and neck.
I don’t understand why we would want to nominate someone with next-to-zero Washington experience, a drug history that will not sit well with most Americans (pot is one thing, cocaine is very much another), and a tendency to be, well, a bit of a brat when he is affronted. Because he’s pretty and personable? I’ve had enough of presidents who are elected because they are likable and people think they’d like to have a beer with them, personally.
I’d like some time-tested substance and political and diplomatic acumen. Please.