From page 56 of the ISG Report.
Current U.S. policy is not working, as the level of violence in Iraq is rising and the government is not advancing national reconciliation. Making no changes in policy would simply delay the day of reckoning at a high cost.
True that. I’ve read over half the report and it is a generally solid and sober assessment of where things stand. I recommend people read it for its educational value. The problems with the report arise when it stops being strictly descriptive and begins to make recommendations. I will provide some examples (from the ‘they should’ category).
Iran should stem the flow of arms and training to Iraq, respect Iraq’s sovereignty
and territorial integrity, and use its influence over Iraqi Shia groups to encourage national reconciliation…Syria should control its border with Iraq to stem the flow of funding, insurgents, and terrorists in and out of Iraq.
…The Iraqi government should accelerate assuming responsibility for Iraqi security by increasing the number and quality of Iraqi Army brigades.
And, all over the world, every child should have a shiny happy pony.
We can talk about what should happen and what our adversaries and allies should do until the last lizard dies in Iraq. But we cannot continue to make policy based on fantasies.
From page 50.
The United States has made a massive commitment to the future of Iraq in both blood and treasure. As of December 2006, nearly 2,900 Americans have lost their lives serving in Iraq. Another 21,000 Americans have been wounded, many severely.
To date, the United States has spent roughly $400 billion on the Iraq War, and costs are running about $8 billion per month. In addition, the United States must expect significant “tail costs” to come. Caring for veterans and replacing lost
equipment will run into the hundreds of billions of dollars. Estimates run as high as $2 trillion for the final cost of the U.S. involvement
in Iraq.Despite a massive effort, stability in Iraq remains elusive and the situation is deteriorating. The Iraqi government cannot
now govern, sustain, and defend itself without the support of the United States. Iraqis have not been convinced that they must take responsibility for their own future. Iraq’s neighbors and much of the international community have not been persuaded
to play an active and constructive role in supporting Iraq. The ability of the United States to shape outcomes is diminishing. Time is running out.
This is where the report is at its strongest. It’s also strong when it tackles the potential consequences of a failed Iraq sans American soldiers.
If the situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be severe for Iraq, the United States, the region, and the world.
Continuing violence could lead toward greater chaos, and inflict greater suffering upon the Iraqi people. A collapse of Iraq’s government and economy would further cripple a country already unable to meet its people’s needs. Iraq’s security
forces could split along sectarian lines. A humanitarian catastrophe could follow as more refugees are forced to relocate across the country and the region. Ethnic cleansing could escalate.
The Iraqi people could be subjected to another strongman who flexes the political and military muscle required to impose order amid anarchy. Freedoms could be lost.Other countries in the region fear significant violence crossing their borders. Chaos in Iraq could lead those countries to intervene to protect their own interests, thereby perhaps sparking a broader regional war. Turkey could send troops into northern Iraq to prevent Kurdistan from declaring independence.
Iran could send in troops to restore stability in southern Iraq and perhaps gain control of oil fields. The regional influence of Iran could rise at a time when that country is on a path to producing nuclear weapons. Ambassadors from neighboring countries told us that they fear the distinct possibility of Sunni-Shia clashes across
the Islamic world. Many expressed a fear of Shia insurrections— perhaps fomented by Iran—in Sunni-ruled states. Such a broader sectarian conflict could open a Pandora’s box of problems—
including the radicalization of populations, mass movements of populations, and regime changes—that might take decades to play out.If the instability in Iraq spreads to the
other Gulf States, a drop in oil production and exports could lead to a sharp increase in the price of oil and thus could harm the global economy.Terrorism could grow. As one Iraqi official told us, “Al Qaeda is now a franchise in Iraq, like McDonald’s.” Left unchecked, al Qaeda in Iraq could continue to incite violence between Sunnis and Shia. A chaotic Iraq could provide a still
stronger base of operations for terrorists who seek to act regionally or even globally. Al Qaeda will portray any failure by the United States in Iraq as a significant victory that will be featured prominently as they recruit for their cause in the region and around the world. Ayman al-Zawahiri, deputy to Osama bin Laden, has declared Iraq a focus for al Qaeda: they will
seek to expel the Americans and then spread “the jihad wave to the secular countries neighboring Iraq.” A senior European official told us that failure in Iraq could incite terrorist attacks
within his country.The global standing of the United States could suffer if Iraq descends further into chaos. Iraq is a major test of, and strain on, U.S. military, diplomatic, and financial capacities.
Perceived failure there could diminish America’s credibility and influence in a region that is the center of the Islamic world and vital to the world’s energy supply. This loss would reduce
America’s global influence at a time when pressing issues in North Korea, Iran, and elsewhere demand our full attention and strong U.S. leadership of international alliances. And the longer that U.S. political and military resources are tied down
in Iraq, the more the chances for American failure in Afghanistan increase.Continued problems in Iraq could lead to greater polarization within the United States. Sixty-six percent of Americans disapprove of the government’s handling of the war, and more
than 60 percent feel that there is no clear plan for moving forward.The November elections were largely viewed as a referendum on the progress in Iraq. Arguments about continuing to provide security and assistance to Iraq will fall on deaf ears if
Americans become disillusioned with the government that the United States invested so much to create. U.S. foreign policy cannot be successfully sustained without the broad support of the American people.Continued problems in Iraq could also lead to greater Iraqi opposition to the United States. Recent polling indicates that only 36 percent of Iraqis feel their country is heading in the right direction, and 79 percent of Iraqis have a “mostly negative” view of the influence that the United States has in their country. Sixty-one percent of Iraqis approve of attacks on U.S.-led forces. If Iraqis continue to perceive Americans as representing an occupying force, the United States could become its own worst enemy in a land it liberated from tyranny.
Yet, after laying out such a stark picture, the ISG moves on to fantasy land. Their recommendations are a combination of weak exhortation and wishful thinking that are totally unequal to the obstacles arrayed against an Iraq that can “govern itself, sustain itself, and defend itself.”
We should not wait until our Baghdad embassy is overrun by jubilant radicals before we take the proper lessons from the ISG’s analysis. We need to get out as soon as possible and put all our emphasis on achieving a settlement of the Palestinian question. The risks are great either way, but we should control the terms of our own defeat.
