Considering each disrict’s PVI as well as each incumbent’s party performance in his or her respective district in 2004 and 2006, I have determined the rank and order of the most vulnerable House incumbents in 2008.  Details and analysis are provided in the extended entry.

TIER I, 30 D & 7 R

  1. WI-08 (Kagen-D)
  2. IN-09 (Hill-D)

   KS-02 (Boyda-D)
4. PA-10 (Carney-D)
   FL-16 (Mahoney-D)

  1. AZ-05 (Mitchell-D)
  2. TX-22 (Lampson-D)
  3. NY-19 (Hall-D)
  4. CT-04 (Shays-R)

   IL-08 (Bean-D)
11. TX-23 (Rodriguez-D)
    PA-04 (Altmire-D)

  1. NY-20 (Gillibrand-D)
  2. NC-11 (Schuler-D)
  3. PA-06 (Gerlach-R)

    WA-08 (Reichert-R)

  1. CA-11 (McNerney-D)
  2. NM-01 (Wilson-R)
  3. MN-01 (Walz-D)
  4. IN-02 (Donnelly-D)

    NV-03 (Porter-R)

  1. NH-01 (Shea-Porter-D)
  2. NY-24 (Arcuri-D)
  3. KY-03 (Yarmuth-D)
  4. AZ-08 (Giffords-D)
  5. LA-03 (Melancon-D)
  6. PA-08 (Murphy-D)
  7. TX-17 (Edwards-D)

    GA-12 (Barrow-D)

  1. FL-22 (Klein-D)
  2. NJ-07 (Ferguson-R)
  3. GA-08 (Marshall-D)
  4. NH-02 (Hodes-D)
  5. IA-03 (Boswell-D)
  6. OR-05 (Hooley-D)
  7. UT-02 (Matheson-D)

    NC-08 (Hayes-R)

TIER II, 13 D & 22 R

  1. CO-07 (Perlmutter-D)
  2. PA-15 (Dent-R)
  3. MI-09 (Knollenberg-R)
  4. OH-18 (Space-D)
  5. IN-08 (Ellsworth-D)

    IL-06 (Roskam-R)

  1. FL-13 (Buchanan-R)
  2. OH-15 (Pryce-R)
  3. MN-06 (Bachmann-R)

    IA-02 (Loebsack-D)
48. AZ-01 (Renzi-R)
    MI-07 (Walberg-R)

  1. CO-03 (Salazar-D)
  2. MI-11 (McCotter-R)

    CT-02 (Courtney-D)

  1. NY-26 (Reynolds-R)
  2. NY-29 (Kuhl-R)

    CO-04 (Musgrave-R)

  1. CT-05 (Murphy-D)
  2. IL-10 (Kirk-R)

    VT-AL (Welsh-D)

  1. VA-02 (Drake-R)
  2. PA-07 (Sestak-D)
  3. OH-01 (Chabot-R)
  4. IA-01 (Braley-D)
  5. NY-13 (Fossella-R)
  6. IL-11 (Weller-R)
  7. CA-26 (Dreier-R)
  8. SC-05 (Spratt-D)
  9. VA-11 (Davis-R)
  10. PA-03 (English-R)
  11. MN-02 (Klein-R)
  12. SD-AL (Herseth-D)

    KS-03 (Moore-D)
72. NY-03 (King-R)
    OH-02 (Schmidt-R)

TIER III, 16 D & 20 R

  1. KY-04 (Davis-R)
  2. FL-08 (Keller-R)
  3. IA-04 (Latham-R)

    NJ-05 (Garrett-R)

  1. CA-50 (Bilbray-R)
  2. NY-25 (Walsh-R)
  3. MI-08 (Rogers-R)
  4. NJ-03 (Saxton-R)
  5. TX-27 (Ortiz-D)
  6. TN-04 (Davis-D)

    IN-07 (Carson-D)
    WY-AL (Cubin-R)

  1. PA-17 (Holden-D)
  2. DE-AL (Castle-D)
  3. AR-02 (Snyder-D)
  4. ND-AL (Pomeroy-D)
  5. VA-09 (Boucher-D)
  6. WV-02 (Capito-R)
  7. OH-12 (Tiberi-R)
  8. KY-06 (Chandler-D)
  9. OH-14 (LaTourette-R)

    PA-18 (Murphy-R)
    TX-32 (Sessions-R)

  1. NY-01 (Bishop-D)
  2. TX-15 (Hinojosa-D)
  3. FL-15 (Weldon-R)
  4. IL-17 (Hare-D)

     WA-05 (McMorris-R)

  1. TX-28 (Cuellar-D)
  2. OR-04 (DeFazio-D)
  3. NJ-02 (LoBiondo-R)
  4. OH-03 (Turner-R)
  5. WI-03 (Kind-D)
  6. NC-13 (Miller-D)
  7. NC-02 (Etheridge-D)
  8. CA-04 (Doolittle-R)

Because many House Democrats are in their first term, they are considered more vulnerable than House Republicans who constantly face stiff competition.  Many of our Congresspeople are also considered vulnerable, as they represent districts with very Republican PVIs.  One also cannot ignore how many first term House Democrats defeated incumbents with vote totals in the lower half of the fiftieth percentile.  Although these considerations mitigate concerns many of us may have about the fate of new House Democrats, we must remember that the most vulnerable of them will receive spirited challenges in 2008.  This chart indicates who will have the most difficult time retaining their seat in 2008.

Also illustrated in this chart is the importance of challenging every district.  James Walsh of NY-25 should be one of the most vulnerable Republican House members.  But Walsh was not challenged in 2004, and this explains why he ranks 79 and not, say, 15.  Because Mary Jo Kilroy provided Deborah Pryce with her first real race since her election in 1992, Pryce is now at the lower end of the second tier.  Challenging every Republican progressively makes each of them more vulnerable, for voters are made aware of the options available to them.

This chart demonstrates once again why the DCCC always targets Chris Shays, Jim Gerlach, Dave Reichert, Heather Wilson and Mike Ferguson.  But the DCCC should also consider challenging hitherto ignored Republicans such as Robin Hayes, Joe Knollenberg, Thaddeus McCotter, Mark Kirk, Jerry Weller, Vito Fossella and Dave Dreier.  Although none of these Congresspeople have faced a challenger with DCCC backing, all of them are vulnerable, and I imagine they could be made even more vulnerable if more attention was directed to their respective seats.

What is your reaction to this chart?  Who do you want to target in 2008?  And which 2006 Democrat do you believe will lose his or her seat?  For fun and for motivation I have created a poll.  Hopefully this will compel readers to support one of our potentially vulnerable Democrats in 2008.

0 0 votes
Article Rating