Olmert Is Planning For War, Not Peace

Four Palestinian civilians have been killed in an Israeli raid on the West Bank city of Ramallah. The IDF entered Ramallah with the stated objective of locating and detaining Rabiah Hamad, a senior militant with the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades. Israeli soldiers exchanged fire with the armed Hamad and injured him, but he was able to escape. Four other Palestinians were detained – Israel claims they are militants, Palestinian sources say none of them are operatives of the organisation.
In the course of the “routine” incursion (and it is indeed routine: between 21-27 December, for example, Israeli forces carried out no less than 22 incursions into the West Bank, arresting 37 Palestinians in the process, including six children), Israeli bulldozers and armoured cars swept through the city,  `clearing cars out of the way and turning some over on the pavement,’ and blocked off streets close to the central square.

A helicopter is reported to have opened fire, while gunfire and explosions could be heard in the area. Understandably angry Palestinians started throwing stones and Molotov cocktails at the Israelis, who responded with gunfire. The confrontation lasted almost an hour, during which the four civilians were killed. No Israeli soldier was wounded.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who is currently hosting Olmert in Sharm el-Shiekh, condemned the Ramallah raid, stating, “Israel’s security cannot be achieved through military force but by serious endeavors toward peace”. President Abbas declared that it, “proved that the Israeli calls for peace and security are fake.” “The continued aggression will only lead to the destruction of all efforts aimed at realizing peace”, he went on to say.

He is, of course correct. As I wrote at the time, the ceasefire between Israel and the various militant factions in Gaza was doomed from the minute Israel refused to extend it to the West Bank. It is completely unreasonable to expect that members of the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades or the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) in Gaza would sit back and do nothing whilst Israeli forces continued to `arrest’ and kill militants and civilians in the West Bank. It’s as if Hamas made a truce with the residents of Haifa whilst continuing to fire on Tel Aviv. Indeed, the al-Aqsa Brigades said as much from the start, declaring,

“The Israeli aggression must stop in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip…This is a temporary cease-fire and any Israeli assault on our people in the West Bank will be viewed as a violation of the agreement.”

Olmert refused, inexplicably, to extend the ceasefire to the West Bank, and Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) have continued to `arrest’ and kill Palestinians in the West Bank. As a result, the Qassams have continued to fall on southern Israel. For example, on November 27, the IOF shot dead a PRC militant in the West Bank. In retaliation, the PRC in Gaza launched two Qassams into Israel.

I say `inexplicably’, but that is only the case if one accepts that Israel truly wanted the ceasefire to last.  Considering the evidence, this is can only be described as a faith position. Olmert’s government initially rejected a ceasefire in favour of expanding military operations, describing the Palestinian offer “a media stunt”. When force failed to stop the Qassams, however, he performed an about-face. Even then, he refused to agree to the one condition that might have made the ceasefire work, neglecting to provide even a remotely reasonable justification for doing so. The best he has come up with is that Israel would like to extend the truce to the West Bank, but will only do so after Gaza militants stop firing Qassams. This barely merits a response – the point, obviously, is that the militants won’t stop firing Qassams unless Israel stops killing Palestinians in the West Bank.

In any event, when one considers the horrendous violence, criminality and suffering Israel has inflicted on the Palestinian people this year, the idea that Olmert simply woke up one morning wanting peace is not credible. Events since the ceasefire have merely confirmed that Israel is not looking to sustain the ceasefire or use it as the basis for a lasting peace. When Olmert met with President Abbas, he promised to release $100 million of the $600 million in tax revenues Israel is withholding from the Palestinians, to dismantle 59 roadblocks in the West Bank and to release a small number of Palestinian prisoners as a gesture of goodwill. Said Defence Minister Peretz (whose days may well be numbered) of the roadblocks,

“We must consider easing roadblocks in places where this does not pose a danger,”

thereby admitting what everyone already knew: that Israel constructs roadblocks in the West Bank for reasons other than security. Despite the promising talk, the roadblocks have not been dismantled, the money has not been released and neither have the prisoners.

The irony of the Ramallah raid is that it was supposedly aimed at detaining a senior al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades militant, even as Israel and its allies are funding, arming and training the private army of President Abbas, whose Fatah party is the political wing of – who else? – the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades!

Israel and its international allies’ strategy is clear: they have, through sustained economic sanctions and brutal military aggression (termed `Operation Summer Rains’ by Israel), brought Palestinians to the point where internal factions are fighting each other and Palestinian society is slowly but surely descending into civil war. That strategy has worked – only today, three Palestinians were killed and 18 wounded when fighting broke out between Fatah and Hamas forces in northern Gaza, whilst earlier this evening three Hamas members were kidnapped by Fatah. In total, eight Palestinians have been killed today due to factional violence. Now that civil war looks likely, Israel, the U.S. and Britain are busy arming and training the side they want to win (Abbas, incidentally, should be ashamed at his flagrant collaboration with the aggressors and the occupier). It’s textbook: despite Haniyeh’s pleas, the Palestinians are killing each other, Hamas’ days in government look numbered and there is no longer a unified Palestinian front against Israel.

The ceasefire is unlikely to hold out much longer, and civil war in Gaza looks increasingly probable. This is obviously disastrous for the Palestinians, but in the long term, it is also harmful to Israel’s security interests. As history demonstrates, the toppling of Hamas will serve only to further radicalise both the organisation itself and the Palestinian population as a whole. A just peace truly is the only alternative to war – unfortunately; we cannot help but conclude that Olmert simply isn’t interested in it.

Cross-posted at The Heathlander