Last Wednesday, on the twelfth day of winter, I walked to the top of a local hill to watch the rising of the full Moon. Clouds to the west caught the red light of the setted Sun, and illuminated the shrubs and stones of the hilltop in a gentle, Otherworldly glow. The land below, city-lights and all, sank away into darkness like the depths of the ocean. The hilltop became an island, hovering above the gloom. Overhead, a sky borrowed from late springtime matched the faux-vernal breeze playing with my open jacket. The Moon rose in banded veils of unbleached chiffon. The world stopped.
We are all in.
Of course, when Bush announced that he was going to ignore his Daddy’s commission on Iraq, he didn’t say that. He called it “doubling down,” which is what you do when you have a strong hand, and the odds of winning have shifted to your favor. This phrase was deliberate mis-direction, as the odds in Iraq have been shifting steadily against the US for months, now stretching into years. “All in” is the correct phrase, or perhaps “betting the farm,” as we stake all we have left on a dubious hand which like as not is pure trash.
What are we proposing to throw into the pot–the cauldron–of Iraq? Troops we do not even have. They will in fact be selected from soldiers who have already served over-long, and long since should have been rotated out. Modern drugs are indeed wonderful: The fact that these men are still functioning at all is a miracle. But as every serious doper knows, drugs have a price that will be paid. The point is, though, that Bush himself does not expect to pay it: As with everything else he does, payment is for others. Americans have accepted–and submit like sheep–to a government that offends every human value.
We give no thought to the destruction of Iraqi lives. This is reprehensible. Perhaps more unsettling, we also give no thought to the destruction of American lives. The troops that we carelessly expend fare worse at our hands than Vietnam vets. This is dishonorable.
Four years ago, I never would have believed it.
And yet, there is a still deeper level of dishonor. Some have argued that murder, torture, and chaos per se is the American strategy in Iraq. That may be. American soldiers have been given no coherent military mission, and the well-known, inevitable result is demoralization–in all senses of the word. What kind of people lets this happen? What kind of people does not care? And how does one imagine such soldiers are to be returned to civilian life?
But maybe they won’t be. Perhaps the Bush people have already figured this one out: Just use the soldiers until they die. Then replace. Repeat. The war, after all, is not going to end. Ever.
Absurdities nested in layers: Three, four, five troop-increase scenerios talked about? Not one would bring troop levels up to a third of what we would have needed to occupy Iraq in the first place. To occupy Iraq now–after three years of dissipation and failure–it is not a tenth, not a fiftieth, not one one hundredth of what we would need.
“Doubling down” was two weeks ago. Already we have switched to “surge.” All I can think of is New Orleans. If there is anyone who can put the desert city of Baghdad under eighteen feet of water, Bush is the one to do it.
If there is a strategy at all, it is indeed murder and chaos. I think this may be a sign of desperation.
But events keep unfolding. In a bare two weeks since the initial rejection of the commission, mongering for a new war against Iran has intensified, with a Murdock propaganda outlet “leaking” an Israeli plan for a pre-emptive nuclear strike. It has been only weeks since Israel all but admitted to possessing nuclear weapons–a fact long known unofficially, yet one that belies all pretenses of peaceful intentions. How do I read this? Desperation and more desperation. In practical, main force, military terms Iran is no threat to Israel whatever. But there is another agenda, and that agenda is oil, and the agenda of oil is in deep trouble.
The new PSA agreements for the puppet Iraqi government to sign away Iraqi oil may indeed be Bush’s idea of victory, but it is hard to be sure they will count for much. If Iraq ever attains a real government, would they still be honored? Would European countries–who will not be beneficiaries–feel the need to honor them or pressure Iraq to honor them? Short of a drill-bit to the head, I don’t see how any of this can be done.
And of course, insurgents may well keep the oil from flowing, even as they are doing now. Despite the extra troops.
So, will the PSAs be Bush’s victory? It all depends on what the meaning of is is.
The Iran war has been touted for a year now. It’s chances to be anything other than a superpower-wrecking disaster–always poor–are worse than ever. For a year Iran has been preparing. A year ago the Air Force seemed to believe the Iranians had no air defenses. Whatever was true then, it is not true now: The Russians have been supplying them. We have no troops; the Navy can expect to go to the bottom of the Persian Gulf; now even the Air Force will take hits.
Not to go into the problem of repercussions.
Desperation, or misdirection?
I wish I knew: On the face of it, Bush has finished the work of destroying civil liberties and legal government, and it ought to be time for the powers that be to replace him with someone who can promote a practical–that is attainable–agenda abroad. Are things merely taking longer than we expect?
Or. Maybe there is no attainable agenda. I am far from sure about this. But the stink of desperation no longer emanates from the Bush people alone. The media, which has just spent the last three months preparing to ship Bush out the door, is now also awash with it.
Something has changed. It is not just Bush, and not just the Army that is all in.
Last year our pending economic collapse was just numbers in economic reports–numbers that mostly got re-written out of existence–and the housing market going into a coma–which is still being explained away. This year is the year that economic collapse becomes visible to everyone, in the form of layoffs and foreclosures and currency devaluation. And yet there is nothing new here: We are on schedule.
This winter, everybody has the plain evidence they need to know that the climate has–as long suspected–popped. We have entered the time of transition. However we intend to cope, we now know we are in for the ride. Perhaps this was unexpected: The powers that be are not half as reality-based as they think, nor as we like think.
Whatever has changed, we are all in.
