Former Director of Central Intelligence James Woolsey was in Herzliya, Israel on Monday for a conference on security. He told the audience that Iran had no interest in nuclear energy, that they were pursuing a bomb, that diplomacy would fail, that non-violent coup attempts would fail, and that the U.S. would almost definitely have to attack.
Questioned about the likelihood that President George W. Bush would launch an attack on Iran, Woolsey replied, “The president is a man of great character and principle.”
Woolsey said he believes Bush is a man “who means what he says, and he said we’re not going to let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
James Woolsey is not Jewish. He prefers to say, “I anchor the Presbyterian wing of JINSA (the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs).” Newt Gingrich isn’t Jewish either. Steven D has already covered his speech from Herzliya, where he compared Iran’s nuclear intentions to a second Holocaust. John Edwards isn’t Jewish. He had something to say at this conference too.
“Let me be clear: Under no circumstances can Iran be allowed to have nuclear weapons,” Edwards said. “For years, the US hasn’t done enough to deal with what I have seen as a threat from Iran. As my country stayed on the sidelines, these problems got worse.”
Across the political spectrum Americans are falling all over each other to assure Israel that the United States will not allow our catastrophe in Iraq to deter us from attacking Iran. This is a potential catastrophe for Israel.
Americans have a fairly positive view of Israel. Most Americans see Israel as a beseiged country, a democracy in the midst of hostile dictatorships. They revere the place as the Holy Land and they like the idea that it is in the hands of the people of the Book rather than strange and frightening Muslims. If you ask Americans whether we should support and defend Israel you will probably get a favorable response. If you ask them about some of Israel’s strongarm tactics you will probably be reminded that they suffered through the Holocaust and have a right to defend themselves.
But, in spite of this, Israel’s image is slipping. They, and their American allies, have tied themselves too closely to George W. Bush’s failed policies. Israel is a complex country with very diverse political views, but they have been run by a right-wing government for nearly Bush’s entire term in office. Because of this, we have seen the influence and popularity of American right-wing sympathizers drop substantially. The best and most glaring example of this has come in the Democratic Party, where Joe Lieberman was forced out and Jane Harman was denied her position as chair of the House Intelligence Committee. (BTW- James Woolsey has contributed the maximum to both Harman and Lieberman).
Harman and Lieberman are merely the most visible manifestations of a crisis that is boiling beneath the surface. The marginalization of The New Republic is another signpost. TNR has consistently attacked the left ever since it refused to wholeheartedly embrace Bush’s excellent adventure into Iraq. It’s subscriptions have dropped by half and it is regularly ridiculed for its sloppy thinking and right-wing rhetorical tactics.
Individual politicians, notably former NYC Mayor Ed Koch, are drifting away from the Democrats as they see a growing hostility and lack of commitment to Bush’s policies. Meanwhile, former allies like Jimmy Carter are becoming more strident in the condemnation of Israel’s strategies for their security.
It’s impossible for Israel’s image not to suffer when it has become so intertwined with the dying ideology of neo-conservatism. And that is a problem when it comes to Iran.
In part this is a case of the ‘boy who cried wolf’. Having misled the nation and the world about Iraq, the same actors are in a terrible position to mobilize us against Iran. This is true regardless of the merits. It’s particularly true when they resort to the same type of tactics used to mobilize the country against Iraq.
For example, simply declaring that Iran is pursuing a nuclear bomb doesn’t make it so. Iran has a lot of energy resources but they are diminishing and they are a net importer of energy. Ignoring the best intelligence about where Iran is along the path to nuclear weapons is also not helpful. Saying they will have a bomb in a year or two, when our real estimates say a decade or more, is not helpful. Lumping Iran together with Sunni extremists is not helpful. And suggesting that Iran is so suicidally hateful that they would do a first strike nuclear attack on Israel is not helpful. Demonizing their President, Mahmoud Ahmeninejad, is easy to do. The man is a nut and a strident anti-Semite. But the President of Iran does not command the armed forces or the intelligence services. Suggesting otherwise is not helpful.
Taken as a whole, Israel and their American allies are currently engaged in a propaganda campaign to frighten Americans into supporting a strike, or even a war, against Iran. But they are making all the same mistakes that they made in the lead-up to the war in Iraq. Their rhetoric is misleading, hysterical, inaccurate…
It’s also irresponsible. It’s irresponsible because any attack on Iran would endanger our supply lines in Iraq. It would inflame the Iraqi Shi’ites, who control the entire south of the country. It would endanger international shipping in the Persian Gulf and could lead to the closing of the Straits of Hormuz (thereby cutting off oil supplies and crippling the global economy). It would likely result in a global campaign of Hezbollah inspired terrorist attacks. It would probably make Lebanon ungovernable, possibly causing a second civil war there.
Imagine if Bush launched an attack on Iran and Americans saw our forces butchered in Iraq, gasoline prices soar causing massive lay-offs and a crumbling stock market, and then were subjected to a string of terrorist attacks. And then imagine that none of the intelligence about Iran’s nuclear intentions or capabilities proved to be accurate. Where do you think that would leave Israel in its relationship with the American public?
Back in 1961 the CIA launched the Bay of Pigs operation in the hope that once it got started President Kennedy would have no choice but to reinforce the wholly inadequate invasion force. It didn’t happen and the Cubans were slaughtered on the beaches. The Israelis and their hawkish American allies, appear to be attempting a similar gambit. If they can just start a massive conflagration with Iran, we will have no choice but to see it through to victory. But can you imagine what it would take to achieve such a victory? They want to start a total war of America against Islam.
Needless to say, the American people are not interested in any such battle. And I can think of no more perilous strategy for Israel. If they lose the support of the American people they will be truly alone in the world.
So, I appeal to Joe Lieberman and James Woolsey and Marty Peretz and Jane Harman and Newt Gingrich and John Edwards and Ed Koch and all the rest of the pro-Israel anti-Iran hawks…please…calm down. Use your senses. Tell the truth. Don’t inflame the situation. Regain the trust of the international community. And we can try to deal with the threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb in a sober manner.
