I want to talk about something that concerns me. Every two years a third of the Senate comes up for re-election. In 2008, the Democrats have a huge advantage because only 12 of their seats at risk, while 21 Republican seats could change hands. But things are not as simple as they appear. For example, only two GOP seats come from New England (Maine, New Hamphire). A good chunk of the GOP seats come from the confederacy (Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas). Many of the other seats are no more encouraging: Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky, Idaho, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming.
The Democrats can take heart that seats are available in blue Oregon and Minnesota, and our best pick-up opportunities are probably in Colorado and New Mexico.
I am actually fairly optimistic that the Democrats can win a good amount of these Senate seats. What I am concerned about is what the Dems will do in order to win in these conservative states, and what it will mean for progressives if we are successful.
We could see a kind of Blue-Dogification of the party in the Senate.
It might seem unlikely that we will win any of the deep south or prairie/mountain seats, but there are a variety of factors that could make these seats vulnerable.
The rookies: Elizabeth Dole (NC), Saxby Chambliss (GA), Lamar Alexander (TN) and John Cornyn (TX) are all serving their first terms. None of them should be considered truly safe. A recent poll showed Democratic Gov. Mike Easley beating Dole 44%-41%. Max Cleland would present a formidable challenge to Chambliss. Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredeson has 73% approval numbers. John Cornyn has only 45% approval rating.
The retirees: Wayne Allard (CO) has already announced his retirement, but there are rumors that Thad Cochran (MS), John Warner (VA), Pete Domenici (NM), Ted Stevens (AK), James Inhofe (OK), Chuck Hagel (NE), and Larry Craig (ID) might retire. A lot will depend on how many of them actually seek re-election. The more of these seats that are open and competitive, the more pressure our Democratic nominee for president will feel to cater their campaign in ways our Senate candidates can support.
The vulnerable: 2008 should be a tough year for Norm Coleman (MN), Gordon Smith (OR), John Sununu (NH) and Susan Collins (ME) to seek re-election. All of those states should vote heavily for the Democratic presidential nominee.
If we win the presidency, we see a lot of retirements, and we field strong Senate candidates, we could see a filibuster proof majority. What would that look like?
52. Colorado: Sen. Mark Udall
53. Oregon: Sen. David Wu or Sen. Earl Blumenauer
54. Minnesota: Sen. Al Franken or Sen. Mike Ciresi.
55. New Hampshire: Sen. Steve Marchand or Sen. Katrina Swett.
56. Maine: Sen. Tom Allen.
57. New Mexico: Sen. Tom Udall or Sen. Martin Chavez.
58. Virginia: Sen. Mark Warner.
59. North Carolina: Sen. Mike Easley.
60. Georgia: Sen. Max Cleland.
61. Mississippi: Sen. Mike Moore.
62. Oklahoma: Sen. Dan Boren or Sen. Brad Carson or Sen. Robert Kerr III.
63. Alaska: Sen. Mark Begich.
64. Texas: Sen. Rick Noreiga or Sen. Bill White.65. Idaho: Sen. Larry Grant (?).
66. Tennessee: Sen. Phil Bredeson or Sen. Harold Ford Jr.
67. Nebraska: Sen. Mike Fahey.
68. Wyoming: Sen. Gary Trauner (?).
69. Kansas: Sen. Jill Docking or Sen. Steve Boyda.
The first thing to notice here is that there are only two women even mentioned. That is a big problem. But it isn’t the worst round-up of potential candidates. And if we can convince George Clooney to run against Mitch McConnell (KY) and Charles Barkley to run against Jeff Sessions (AL), we might be able to approach 70 seats…heh.
We have to worry about our own seats in Massachusetts (Kerry), New Jersey (Lautenberg), Louisiana (Landrieu), Arkansas (Pryor), and South Dakota (T. Johnson). But, all in all, if the Republicans don’t get their act together we might see a much bigger Democratic Party after 2008. But will it be more progressive?
