Will global warming ultimately effect how much corn, wheat and rice we grow?

Sorry, that’s the wrong question. The right question is: Has global warming already had a negative impact on production of grain crops? The answer is — Yes, yes it has:

Global warming over the past quarter century has led to a fall in the yield of some of the most important food crops in the world, according to one of the first scientific studies of how climate change has affected cereal crops.

Rising temperatures between 1981 and 2002 caused a loss in production of wheat, corn and barley that amounted in effect to some 40 million tons a year – equivalent to annual losses of some £2.6bn.

… “Most people tend to think of climate change as something that will impact the future, but this study shows that warming over the past two decades has already had real effects on global food supply,” said Christopher Field of the Carnegie Institution in Stanford, California. […]

There was a clear trend, showing the cereal crops were suffering from lower yields during a time when agricultural technology, including the use of chemical fertilisers and pesticides, became more intensive. The study’s co-author, David Lobell of America’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, said that the observed fall in cereal yields could be clearly linked with increased temperatures during the period covered by the study.

“Though the impacts are relatively small compared to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate that negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale are already occurring,” Dr Lobell said. […]

The study revealed a simple relationship between temperature and crop yields, with a fall of between 3 and 5 per cent for every 0.5C increase in average temperatures, the scientists said.

Which means as global warming increases, the amount of grain crops we can produce to feed people decreases, even if we continue to chemically fertilize the sh*t out of our farmland. The more the temperatures go up, the less food we can grow. It’s a simple mathematical correlation, apparently. Which isn’t exactly giving me a warm fuzzy feeling right now.

(cont.)

By the way, anybody know what the trend in human population growth is likely to be over the next 50 years or so? Oh, that’s right, the trend is upward. How much of an increase are we looking at? Quite a bit, actually:

THE Earth’s population will reach 9.2 billion in 2050, with nearly three times as many people over the age of 60 and virtually all growth in the developing world, the UN Population Division has said in its latest report.

Not good news, people. To put this in the form of an equation even a home schooled conservative pundit could understand:

   Global Warming
+ Increased Human Population Growth
= Less Food to feed everyone.

However you view the situation, it’s not a pretty picture, is it?