THE DUDE: Yeah, my thinking about the case, man, it had become uptight.
All the time I have been thinking about this supplemental bill for funding the war in Iraq I have been working on the assumption that the Senate would need 60 votes to pass the legislation. I thought, briefly, that Reid could invoke reconcilation because the bill would affect the budget, but that only pertains to regular budget legislation, not supplemental funding. Nonetheless, it looks like I’ve had my head up my ass.
Proponents of the troop withdrawal deadline face a lower hurdle than in earlier Senate votes. Earlier efforts to win approval for a withdrawal timetable needed 60 votes to overcome a filibuster; this time, opponents will be trying to strip a withdrawal plan that’s already in legislation. That means it will require a simple 50-vote majority to keep it in.
So, okay, I’m still learning Senate procedure.
WALTER: Dude, nothing is fucked. Come on. You’re being very unDude.
This changes things substantially. There was literally no chance that the House version would pass the Senate if it required 60 votes. That meant the Dems would have to cave to get something passed in the Senate and then fight it out in conference. I was not very optimistic about how that will all shake out.
THE DUDE: Yeah. That’s a great plan, Walter. That’s fucking ingenious, if I understand it correctly. That’s a Swiss fucking watch.
But things are different if we only need a majority in the Senate. We know that Lieberman will vote against the bill and we know that Tim Johnson is very unlikely to vote. That means we start out at a 49-50 disadvantage. But, we have this:
“I will not continue to support with my vote the status quo,” Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., said on ABC’s This Week…
…Besides Hagel, those who have questioned the troop buildup in Iraq but who voted against setting a deadline for withdrawal earlier this month include Sens. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Susan Collins and Olympia Snow[e] of Maine, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and John Warner of Virginia.
Actually, a look at the roll call for Senate Joint Resolution Nine shows that Gordon Smith (R-OR) voted for it, Mark Pryor (D-AR) voted against it, and John McCain abstained. So…
If McCain votes against the supplemental, Smith votes for the supplemental and we flip Pryor, we will be at 49-50. (If Tim Johnson can vote, if would stand at 50-50). In other words, if we can flip Pryor, we only need one more Republican to pass this bill with timetables and benchmarks, and put it on the President’s desk.
WALTER: Thaaat’s right, Dude. The beauty of this is its simplicity. If the plan gets too complex something always goes wrong.
Republican Senators that are up for re-election and might consider voting for this bill are: Lamar Alexander, Gordon Smith, Norm Coleman, Susan Collins, John Warner, Pete Domenici, and John Sununu. Other targets are Voinovich of Ohio, Snowe of Maine, and Specter of Pennsylvania. And, of course, Hagel.
The President has promised to veto this bill and I believe he will veto the bill. If he does, we won’t be able to say the Congress withheld funding from the troops. In the meantime, Bush’s position continues to deteriorate.
WALTER: Ya see? Nothing is fucked up here, Dude. Nothing is fucked. These guys are fucking amateurs–
Here’s Novak:
With nearly two years remaining in his presidency, George W. Bush is alone. In half a century, I have not seen a president so isolated from his own party in Congress — not Jimmy Carter, not even Richard Nixon as he faced impeachment.
Let him veto this bill. And we’ll see where things stand. That will be the time for progressive Dems to hold firm in the House and refuse to pass anything watered down.
Update [2007-3-26 9:58:5 by BooMan]: It looks like Sen. Webb and Sen. Hagel plan on introducing some kind of amendment that will weaken the bill. That could muck things up quite a bit, as I assume it will have a lot of appeal for wafflers.
