Differences between the 1995 government shutdown and the 2007 government showdown.
Bill Clinton: great communication skills and decent popularity.
George W. Bush: no communications skills and polling in the crapper. Plus, no one believes a thing he says anymore.
Newt Gingrich: weird looking dude that scared people.
Nancy Pelosi: nice grandmother.
The 1995 shutdown closed our national parks.
The 2007 showdown would close down a very unpopular war.
The Republicans were pushing the envelope with their mandate.
The Democrats are struggling to carry out the bare minimum of their mandate.
Clinton was not yet embroiled in scandal, although the Republicans were doing their best.
The Bush administration is getting killed everyday with damaging revelations of their malfeasance.
I could probably make up a much longer list but I don’t think it is necessary. The differences between today and 1995 are enormous and do not favor the Republicans. Nevertheless, the official line coming from the Republicans is that George W. Bush can use a showdown with Congress to ‘rise like a phoenix’, as Joe Scarborough put it tonight.
People like Pat Buchanan are suggesting that the Dems will have no choice to back down, and that if they do not, it will really benefit Bush and the Republicans. And they are using the 1995 government shutdown as their model. It appears the White House has bought into this rhetoric, although it’s possible that they are just using intimidation and trying to seed some doubt in the Democratic caucus.
The Dems do not have to follow this script. There are things they can do short of defunding the troops in the field. And, ultimately, if they stick to their guns and keep handing the President bills to sign, he will have to sign one eventually. They might compromise once, by passing a very short term bill, but doing that will really strain the unity of the caucus.
The only thing I can really say in favor of funding for a few more months before we insist on withdrawal is that the President’s position is bound to be weaker in three months than it is today. Given a choice of retreating three months and then coming back strong, and capitulating now? I’ll take the President on again from a stronger position over the summer.
But, before we even get to that point, the Dems need to go forth and explain why the President should just grow up and sign the damn bill. He has his money. And let’s see if we can pull away more Republicans on the override attempt.
