For once in his life, Charles Krauthammer actually says something that makes a lot of sense.
Thought experiment: Bring in a completely neutral observer — a Martian — and point out to him that the United States is involved in two hot wars against radical Islamic insurgents. One is in Afghanistan, a geographically marginal backwater with no resources and no industrial or technological infrastructure. The other is in Iraq, one of the three principal Arab states, with untold oil wealth, an educated population, an advanced military and technological infrastructure that, though suffering decay in the later years of Saddam Hussein’s rule, could easily be revived if it falls into the right (i.e., wrong) hands. Add to that the fact that its strategic location would give its rulers inordinate influence over the entire Persian Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the Gulf states. Then ask your Martian: Which is the more important battle? He would not even understand why you are asking the question.
No one is suggesting that Iraq is not a catastrophe that imperils American interests in the region and that makes us less safe at home. And no one is suggesting that Afghanistan is actually a bigger threat to American interests than our failure in Iraq. But there are differences. Our mission in Afghanistan is much more limited and manageable, and there is a clear exit strategy. We have legitimacy for being there and we have allies to help us. And, while things have been deteriorating in Afghanistan, there is nothing built into the make-up of the country that makes it impossible for us to maintain our mission there or that forces us to take sides in a civil war.
The problem in Afghanistan, as Krauthammer rightly notes, is that we are not fighting for natural resources, but for the stability and decency of the Afghani government. And that sort of do-gooderism doesn’t interest people like Charles Krauthammer. He wants oil and natural gas. My first advice to Krauthammer is to diversify his portfolio to take advantage of the unique opportunities that Afghanistan provides. If he doesn’t want to join Dennis Hastert in the Herat-Istanbul poppy-mule trade, he can just invest in Kellogg Brown and Root or the Bechtel Group. The money is almost as good and it is still (barely) legal.
A second piece of advice I have for Krauthammer is that he sit down and realize a few things. First, Iraq doesn’t have an ‘advanced military’. It has a bunch of rifle-wielding militias, some RPG’s and mortars, and a couple of helicopters. Be serious. Second, the country is irrevocably broken and isn’t likely to pose a direct military threat to anyone, probably for a couple centuries, and then as part of some other empire. Third, if our main concern is to kill Sunni radicals, then job well done. Once we leave, the Shi’ites should take to that job with great and ruthless efficiency. Our staying in Iraq is only providing al-Qaeda types with protection, propaganda, and first-rate military training.
If you want to play the great game of empire, Charles, it would be best to let the Shi’ites win and then start working on getting them to turn on their Iranian patrons. But I think we have kind of played out the era of American mastery and dominance of the Middle East. It was always a cynical and nasty business that couldn’t stand the light of day. The Iranians figured that out in 1979. We have no one to blame but ourselves for that one. And we have no one to blame but ourselves for Iraq. In tennis it is called an unforced error. It’s like impaling yourself with a nail gun when the job required a screw.
I know the big boys have to stabilize the Middle East somehow. We can’t have the whole region turn into Mogadishu without freezing in the winter. But your neo-conservative wet dream fucked up an already fucked status quo. And the people are getting more interested in shafting Americans, if not killing them, every day.
You want to fix this? Forget everything you think you know. Wait. Scratch that. Start advocating the opposite of everything of you think you know. After all, if every instinct you have is wrong, the opposite must be right. Right?
