Gallop Polls is somewhat mystified about the precipitous fall of Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers. And, I admit, a close look at the polling numbers is somewhat confusing. But, it comes down to political engagement and a generation gap. The Gallup Poll examines attitudes towards Hillary Clinton in two time periods. The first is between November 4, 2006 and March 4, 2007, and the second is between March 23, 2007 and April 15, 2007.
Overall, her favorability has fallen from 55% to 46%. But the steepest drop is among the young. Among 18-29 year-olds, her favorability has fallen from 62% to 47%. The only subgroups that compare are unmarried men (58% to 44%) and Catholics (59%-46%).
Gallup notes that there is no obvious explanation for the drop.
What is not clear is what exactly is behind the less-favorable views of Clinton, particularly since neither she nor her husband has attracted much negative publicity coincident with the decline in her ratings.
Hillary has lost ground in every single subgroup that was polled. Nonetheless, she maintains very high ratings in the both the black (89 to 84) and other non-white (79 to 73) communities. She also gathers most of her support from liberals (81 to 73), rather than from moderates (61 to 50), or conservatives (35 to 26).
For those of us in the world of Blogistan, it might be hard to fathom why Hillary Clinton has such strong support from liberals and the non-white community. And it is a complicated issue to explain. Whole books could be dedicated to the subject…but Bill Clinton was and remains an immensely popular man in the black community, and Hillary still has a lot of support and sympathy for everything she has gone through and had to endure. Rather than delve too deeply into the Clintons relationship with the black community, I’d prefer to focus on the story these poll numbers are telling us.
Aside from political junkies (everyone reading this) not too many Americans have re-examined their feelings about the Clintons since the Big Dog left office. Oh sure, millions and millions have softened their criticism in light of the disaster of the Dubya presidency…but…people haven’t changed their view of where the Clintons stood politically. If anything, people kind of long for the days of the real estate and .com stock market bubbles. They don’t question, too much, if the Clintons are the right kind of people with the right kind of friends and the right kind of policies to lead us forward.
Things were better back then. Maybe they can be good like that again.
The Clintons have been plotting this presidential run ever since DNA analysis on a blue GAP dress blew the President’s cover story. They thought they had the liberals wrapped up…they thought they had the black community in tow. And so…they started tacking to the middle to shore up those centrists, moderates, and undecideds. They wanted Hillary to be a hawk (An 11 on the Manly Scale of Absolute Gender). She started talking gibberish about protecting the flag and the ickiness of abortion. Etc.
But, in doing so, and in ridiculing her critics that wanted real leadership, she alienated the activists in the party, who happen to be disproportionately black, female, and/or liberal. And she didn’t get a corresponding bump from moderates that could make up for it.
Today, she is back where she started (her main support is among liberals, women, and blacks) but now that support is limited to people that haven’t been paying a lot of attention. That’s not a good place to be in the first trimester of a primary campaign. Hell…only 49% of married women give her the thumbs up.
The bottom line? Hillary is going to lose more liberal voters (regardless of race of gender) as more liberals get involved in the primaries and learn about her record of trashing liberals and appeasing neo-conservative adventurers. All the ill-will she has built up among movement progressives is going to come back and just bleed her dry of support.
The people that are already least inclined to support her are the people (ages 18-29) whose opinions of her have been shaped by her life as a Senator in the era of Bush, and not as a besieged First Lady in the age of Newt Gingrich. But the older folks will have their opinions revised as they become more involved in the campaign. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is doomed. And it is doomed because she failed to anticipate the total collapse of Bushism.
