Gallop Polls is somewhat mystified about the precipitous fall of Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers. And, I admit, a close look at the polling numbers is somewhat confusing. But, it comes down to political engagement and a generation gap. The Gallup Poll examines attitudes towards Hillary Clinton in two time periods. The first is between November 4, 2006 and March 4, 2007, and the second is between March 23, 2007 and April 15, 2007.
Overall, her favorability has fallen from 55% to 46%. But the steepest drop is among the young. Among 18-29 year-olds, her favorability has fallen from 62% to 47%. The only subgroups that compare are unmarried men (58% to 44%) and Catholics (59%-46%).
Gallup notes that there is no obvious explanation for the drop.
What is not clear is what exactly is behind the less-favorable views of Clinton, particularly since neither she nor her husband has attracted much negative publicity coincident with the decline in her ratings.
Hillary has lost ground in every single subgroup that was polled. Nonetheless, she maintains very high ratings in the both the black (89 to 84) and other non-white (79 to 73) communities. She also gathers most of her support from liberals (81 to 73), rather than from moderates (61 to 50), or conservatives (35 to 26).
For those of us in the world of Blogistan, it might be hard to fathom why Hillary Clinton has such strong support from liberals and the non-white community. And it is a complicated issue to explain. Whole books could be dedicated to the subject…but Bill Clinton was and remains an immensely popular man in the black community, and Hillary still has a lot of support and sympathy for everything she has gone through and had to endure. Rather than delve too deeply into the Clintons relationship with the black community, I’d prefer to focus on the story these poll numbers are telling us.
Aside from political junkies (everyone reading this) not too many Americans have re-examined their feelings about the Clintons since the Big Dog left office. Oh sure, millions and millions have softened their criticism in light of the disaster of the Dubya presidency…but…people haven’t changed their view of where the Clintons stood politically. If anything, people kind of long for the days of the real estate and .com stock market bubbles. They don’t question, too much, if the Clintons are the right kind of people with the right kind of friends and the right kind of policies to lead us forward.
Things were better back then. Maybe they can be good like that again.
The Clintons have been plotting this presidential run ever since DNA analysis on a blue GAP dress blew the President’s cover story. They thought they had the liberals wrapped up…they thought they had the black community in tow. And so…they started tacking to the middle to shore up those centrists, moderates, and undecideds. They wanted Hillary to be a hawk (An 11 on the Manly Scale of Absolute Gender). She started talking gibberish about protecting the flag and the ickiness of abortion. Etc.
But, in doing so, and in ridiculing her critics that wanted real leadership, she alienated the activists in the party, who happen to be disproportionately black, female, and/or liberal. And she didn’t get a corresponding bump from moderates that could make up for it.
Today, she is back where she started (her main support is among liberals, women, and blacks) but now that support is limited to people that haven’t been paying a lot of attention. That’s not a good place to be in the first trimester of a primary campaign. Hell…only 49% of married women give her the thumbs up.
The bottom line? Hillary is going to lose more liberal voters (regardless of race of gender) as more liberals get involved in the primaries and learn about her record of trashing liberals and appeasing neo-conservative adventurers. All the ill-will she has built up among movement progressives is going to come back and just bleed her dry of support.
The people that are already least inclined to support her are the people (ages 18-29) whose opinions of her have been shaped by her life as a Senator in the era of Bush, and not as a besieged First Lady in the age of Newt Gingrich. But the older folks will have their opinions revised as they become more involved in the campaign. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is doomed. And it is doomed because she failed to anticipate the total collapse of Bushism.
On some levels, this makes me very sad. Today, of all days, I would love to be rooting for a strong woman presidential candidate. Gender does not trump everything, however. She triangulated herself out of any support I might give her.
I’m also sad. I am a liberal and I will be supporting Hillary. Those who hate her are Republicans as far as I’m concerned.
I’m not a Republican. I’m female and liberal and I think she’s a fraud.
Hillary Clinton has coasted on her sense of entitlement long enough. She offers more of the same, nothing new. Triangulation, the Third Way, and DLC Democrats are Clinton-era artifacts, as dangerous to our future as this Neocon orgy we’ve endured.
and I don’t hate her — I just feel that (a) we have better choices for President and (b) I think her skills might be best put to use in Senate leadership, strengthening the tenuous majority.
We went through this once before — Walter Mondale struck new ground by choosing a female running mate. Unfortunately, Geraldine Ferraro turned out to be the wrong running mate; someone screwed up and didn’t do a thorough enough vetting process…and we haven’t had a sniff at a female Vice President since, over 20 years later.
Don’t know what I’ll do if Clinton is our nominee — I’ll likely hold my nose and vote for her, but I probably won’t be spending any time, talent or treasure on her campaign…I’ll reserve that for candidates I think need the help more…
In the effort to win re-election, especially in the upstate New York area which is more like the midwest than Downstate New York is, She tacked rightward. It worked.
She is a stunningly popular Senator who can charm the socks off you, and she should remain our Senator.
However, the realization that Senator Clinton’s campaign is failing is no surprise. It couldn’t work because it was doomed from the start…people don’t forget as much as some might think, and the Clinton’s were all but destroyed, regardless of how popular Bill was, by the rumor and innuendo of ceaseless day-in-day-out media shellacking. People remember how revulsed they were at the coverage, and don’t want a repeat of this…they have seen enough of Conservatism for a long time.
She should forget it. Throw her weight behind a heavyweight experienced professional like Richardson, whom I believe she has a great rapport with and we might see something really positive happen for the party.
That’s how I feel about this.
The question is where will her supporters jump? The money people have been jumping to Obama, and maybe that where her other supporters will end up as well, but I can’t help feeling that the weaker she becomes the more likely it is that Gore may enter the race.
Let me just add that having Clinton as my Senator for the last 6+ years made a huge difference in how I perceived her. The more knowledgeable I became about her positions on the issues and her voting record in the Senate, the more frustrated and the more angry I became as well. If she had actually stood up for many of the progressive ideals that people believe she stands for, and if she had taken a stand against the war early on, I would be her biggest supporter. But she chose to follow a different path.
I’m with Kahli. How many times have you read “I like Hillary, but she’s not my fist choice.” it would be great to have a woman president, but at this point it seems like we all are more interested in an honest one.
She may be playing the game perfectly, but it’s precisely that game that we’re all sick of.
I agree and it is most definately a generational thing. She cannot win the nomination. I believe her support will continue to erode among Dems.
I am alot older than 25 and I am a woman. I cannot stand Hillary. and those pining away for the 90s should stop and think about what they really were like. And, if the dysfunctional Clintons made you happy, then why can’t a stable democrat do the same only better.
Part of the problem this country faces is due to the Bush and Clinton dynasty era. It’s time to chuck them and tell them they overstayed their welcome.
It’s time to embrace someone new, fresh new ideas for the disaster that Bushie boy left us in and realize that if we want to not only win the presidency but, bring the country together to group effort the problems, Hillary is not the one. Not only does she turn off a large majority of democrats who will never vote for her but, she energizes the republicans who will turn out in droves to vote against. And she is not exactly popular with indies and crossovers.
I have lurked on some rightwing sites to see what they are up to and one thing I have found is that they are praying we select Hillary as the nominee. They are rubbing their hands together at the thought.
That is not good.
We need to move to a new era and new names.
I wouldn’t count her out quite yet, but the poll is startling. For one thing, there are NO pluses in that last column showing percentage change in the candidates’ approval level. She is losing in every demographic Gallup measured.
I’ve never been a supporter, but Hillary’s likely crash makes me sad. She could have been a great senator, an unstoppable presidential candidate, and a great groundbreaking president. In true tragic form, she is ruined by her own decision to let calculation trump principle when the hard tests came along. There was a time for her when it didn’t have to be that way.
But the blacks, females, and liberals still like her. She hasn’t alienated them. That’s not where her drop is coming. The question is why are white, young, and male people turning against her? It’s a good question, because I don’t see any reason her campaign so far would alienate anybody besides anti-war activists (an important consituency, but probably not the one turning on her).
that’s where you are wrong.
See…the people have turned against her in the last couple on months. All the people, in every subgroup. Why? They started paying attention. And where did the biggest losses come from? From young people that judge her on her record in the Senate. Overall, young people still support her, but the drop off is the biggest with them.
This is what will happen among her base when they start paying attention.
If her support was from moderates and conservatives then she could pull a Lieberman and pull a rabbit out of a hat. But that is not where her support comes from and that is why I think she is doomed. The more people pay attention the more her base will abandon her.
I’d liken the awakening nationwide is consistant with the same awakening taking place in Pennsylvania and Philadelphia.
People are no longer satisfied to support a person who is part of the old machine – the old system – which seemed to benefit a select few at the expense of almost everyone else…
It’s not the only reason, it’s probably not even the most important reason, but I believe that a lot of people have had enough of the tyranny of the few.
Her strength was Bill Clinton, and Clinton has (as he did as President re: the Monica) not met his responsibility to the American people. He could have spoken out against what he surely knew was a disastrous foreign policy, and stayed silent. That’s ok if he’s 80, but not when he’s 55 to 60. Even at 80 Jimmy Carter spoke out.
People support Hillary mainly because they think they are getting Bill as the real Pres and her as a figurehead. I always thought that was her best selling point. But the Big Dawg let her (and all the rest of us) down again. Talented as he is, it’s always been about him, not about us. We should learn from that.
“She may be playing the game perfectly, but it’s precisely that game that we’re all sick of.”
You really hit the nail on the head with that one, Alice.
And Boo, thanks for another great post. In part it exactly answers a question I asked here about a week or so ago: Can someone tell me why so many liberals are still supporting Hillary? Short answer — because they’re not paying attention. And as they start paying attention, they start to realize that times have changed — and bit by bit it turns out that NOT so many are supporting her.
The new WP/ABC poll shows Clinton has a 17 point lead.
http://bluesunbelt.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=442
I myself would love to support a woman. I’d love Nancy Pelosi running. Hillary is just all wrong. And I have to agree with Boo that her support is really soft. As people start paying attention, especially this summer, I see her numbers really falling.
Her negatives keep going up and many people feel like she’s the hold your nose candidate. They admire her like they did Kerry but, like Kerry, there is no excitement or real, “OH, Yeah!” behind the support. Not the way the support for Obama or Edwards is.
She cannot attract the indies or swings. The other two would. Especially Obama who beats all three top gop candidates handily