I’ve been thinking about the potential for a really serious rout in the 2008 Senate elections. The Republicans have to defend 21 seats, while the Democrats only have to defend 12. On the surface, it looks the Republicans only have to worry about a few seats. The most vulnerable:
Wayne Allard (CO), who is retiring.
Norm Coleman (MN), who has to defend his seat in a blue state in a Presidential election year.
Gordon Smith (OR), who has to defend his seat in a blue state in a Presidential election year.
Susan Collins (ME), who has to defend his seat in a blue state in a Presidential election year.
John Sununu (NH), who has to defend his seat in a blue state in a Presidential election year.
But the Republicans have deeper problems.
In New Mexico, Pete Domenici is facing ethical question in the AttorneyGate scandal. In Alaska, Ted Stevens is in his mid-80’s and his son in under investigation for corruption. Larry Craig in Idaho is very unpopular among state Republicans and may face a primary. He might just retire. Chuck Hagel promised to serve only two terms, is facing a primary, and might leave to run an independent campaign for president. John Cornyn in Texas is probably the least popular Republican in his home state. Tom Coburn James Inhofe in Oklahoma might retire. Even if he doesn’t retire, he is increasingly out of touch with the 21st-century. He has no lock on re-election. Jeff Sessions in Alabama seems safe, but you never know. Thad Cochran in Mississippi is considering retirement. Saxby Chambliss of Georgia and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee are first term senators that have modest accomplishments to run on. John Warner of Virginia is considering retirement. And Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina was a disaster as head of the NRSC and is definitely vulnerable. Even minority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, is showing signs of weakness.
Of all the Republican seats up for re-election, the only ones that seem invulnerable are Orrin Hatch of Utah, Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, Pat Roberts of Kansas, and Mike Enzi of Wyoming.
Yet, given Roberts age and the strong showing of Gary Trauner in a state-wide at large Wyoming House race last year, even those seats don’t seem exactly safe. Add to this the leukemia has stricken Wyoming Senator Craig Thomas, and that state could have two seats up for grabs.
In a very real sense, the only two seats that seem totally beyond the reach of Democrats are in Utah and South Carolina.
So, I began thinking about what the Senate would actually look like if the Republicans were utterly trounced and lost all their seats (except Hatch’s and Graham’s). Mind you, I am in no way predicting this will happen. For one thing, we don’t have candidates recruited for many of these seats. For another, in a presidential election year it will be tough for Dems to win seats throughout the prairie states and deep south. Yet, it could happen with the right combination of scandal, retirement, and failure at the top of the Republican ticket. And the result would be kind of fascinating. First of all, the Democrats would have a 68-30-2 advantage in the Senate, with the two independents most likely caucusing with the Dems. This would be even bigger than our advantage after the 1964 elections.
The Republicans would lose their minority leader (McConnell) and their ranking member on the following committees: Agriculture (Chambliss), Appropriations (Cochran), Armed Services (Warner), Commerce (Stevens), Energy (Domenici), Environment (Inhofe), HELP (Enzi), Homeland Security (Collins), and Veteran’s Affairs (Craig).
What’s more, the Democrats would have broken the Republicans’ lock on the deep south and taken up seats in the prairie and mountain states. In a very real sense, we would be back to 1965, but this time we would be at the end, not the beginning, stage of a very unpopular land war in Asia.
There is almost no way this can happen without a perfect storm. There must be retirements and more corruption revelations. There must be outstanding recruitment efforts in every state. The Democrats must defend all twelve of their seats. The Democratic ticket must be broadly popular and acceptable in every area of the country. Current events must flow in a way favorable to Democrats. Etc.
But we should shoot for nothing less. We have a rare opportunity to create a ruling coalition as powerful as the one the emerged from the 1964 Goldwater fiasco. This could be a massive realignment election. And even if we only win half of the seats available (a net gain of 9 or 10), plus the presidency, we will have a filibuster proof majority and will have put the definitive slapdown on the Bush-Frist-DeLay Republican Party of fear, corruption, and incompetence.
