Sen. Hillary Clinton now has a 10 point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in the latest Rasmussen national poll. Rasmussen had in recent months been one of the few polls to show Obama gaining on Clinton in national polls. Obama dropped 8 points in one week losing nearly one fourth of his support in the latest Rasmussen poll while Clinton remained steady and former Sen. John Edwards gained 4 points.
http://bluesunbelt.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=595
Hillary Clinton 35
Barack Obama 25
John Edwards 18
Bill Richardson 5
Rasmussen compares Clinton’s poll numbers to George Bush in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 who both became the nominees of their party.
This puts great significance on the Iowa caucuses which may help clarify who will emerge as Clinton’s major challenger. If the current trends were to continue throughout the Primary season, Clinton would handily win the states allowing only Democrats to vote while her challenger would be more competitive in others.
This also puts Clinton in a similar position to John Kerry in 2004 and George W. Bush in 2000. As Kerry swept to the nomination, John Edwards was most competitive in states that allowed independents to participate in their primaries. In Election 2000, Senator John McCain was most competitive in places that allowed independents to participate. However, he was never a serious threat to Bush in states with Republican-only primaries. New Hampshire, traditionally the first Primary, allows independent voters to participate in either the Republican or the Democratic primary.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary