Let’s say that there is a very well-financed Bloomberg-Hagel ticket. And let’s say that there’s a Obama-Richardson ticket. And let’s say, I don’t know, there’s a Thompson-Romney ticket. Isn’t it possible that the Republicans will come in third place? Imagine the religious bigot’s quandary, choosing between Jews, blacks, Hispanics, and Mormons. What a nightmare. But I want to consider something else. If the Republicans come in third place in the popular presidential vote, what might it do for their candidates down-ticket? Could we see an epic collapse, for example, in the Senate?
The Republicans are already at risk of taking a drubbing in the 2008 Senate elections. They have to defend 22 seats, while the Democrats only have to defend 12. And it is much worse than that. None of the 12 Democratic senators appears to be vulnerable. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) is at risk on paper. Over a half a million Louisianans migrated to Texas alone after Hurricane Katrina, and the vast majority of them were Democrats. But Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) has been unable to recruit anyone to take her on. Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) barely eked out a re-election in 2002. But after suffering a brain aneurysm he has too much sympathy for any Republican to announce they are running against him. Sens. Lautenberg (D-NJ) Harkin (D-IA) and Kerry (D-MA) have polling numbers that indicate they are beatable. But, again, no viable candidates have been recruited to run against them. As of right now, it looks unlikely that any Democratic senators will lose in 2008.
But the Republican side is a mess. Let’s start by just looking at how many Republican senators are facing a possible primary challenge. Sen. Lindsey Graham has a 46 disapproval rating among Republicans. His most likely opponent just got busted for distributing cocaine, but that might not spare Graham from a challenge. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is the target of big anti-immigration media buys and a major draft movement to get right-winger Larry Forgy into the race. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) is probably not going to run for re-election, but even it he does he will face a challenge from Attorney General Jon Bruning and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub. Rep. Bob Schaffer appears to be the Republican choice to succeed the retiring Wayne Allard (R-CO), but he may not win the nomination unopposed. Military veteran Joe Repya is considering a challenge to Norm Coleman (R-MN) and former candidate for Governor Bill Sizemore is threatening Gordon Smith (R-OR). There will also be a primary in Wyoming over the newly appointed Sen. Barasso’s seat.
Then there are the Republicans (in addition to Hagel) that are on retirement watch: John Warner (R-VA), Thad Cochran (R-MS), and Larry Craig (R-ID). To these we must add the legally challenged Ted Stevens (R-AK), who is under FBI investigation, and Pete Domenici (R-NM), who is under a Senate ethics investigation.
That presents a lot of unhappiness and uncertainty on the Republican side. And if we dig a little further we’ll find even more problems. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Pat Roberts (R-KS) all have unenviable polling numbers. Saxby Chambliss was worried enough about a possible primary challenge that he flip-flopped on the immigration bill. And things are even worse.
Lamar Alexander may be facing an unexpectedly strong challenger in Michael Ray McWherter, the son of a popular ex-Governor. And John Sununu (R-NH) may have to face a rematch in ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. Add to this, news that former Senator Bob Kerrey may be looking to take over Chuck Hagel’s seat (should he retire).
Is this looking bleak yet? Well, a look at the Chuck Schumer’s recruiting efforts and the comparative fundraising of the DSCC and the RNSC makes ‘bleak’ look too kind. The Democrats have already lined up strong challengers in Colorado (Rep. Mark Udall) and Maine (Rep. Tom Allen). And they have strong candidates considering runs in New Hampshire (Fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, Mayor Steve Marchand), Kentucky (Charlie Owen, AG Greg Stumbo), North Carolina (Rep. Brad Miller), Tennessee (Mike McWherter), Nebraska (Fmr. Sen. Bob Kerrey, Mayor Mike Fahey), Idaho (Fmr. Rep. Larry LaRocco), Virginia (Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner), and Texas (Mikal Watts, State Rep. Rick Noriega).
We even have some compelling long shot candidates considering like: State Senator Andrew Rice (Oklahoma) and State Senator Vivian Figures (Alabama). In Minnesota and Oregon the Democrats have to sort out a crowded field of potential candidates that includes some colorful characters like comedian Al Franken and activist Steve Novick. Both seats should be competitive for the eventual nominee.
The Republicans are being challenged on nearly all fronts.
