There are many indications that the Republican Party is in deep, deep, doo-doo. You want some? Consider this: Bill Richardson has five million dollars on hand, while John McCain has $2.6. Or consider, Hillary Clinton has $24.3 million bucks on hand…more than Guiliani, Romney, and McCain combined. Do you remember a time when Democrats had a cash advantage over Republicans? The DSCC has twice the cash of the RNSC, even though they have to protect half as many seats in 2008. Think about it. The Republicans have to defend 22 seats in 21 states compared to the Democrats’ need to protect 12 seats in 12 states. Wouldn’t you think the universe of potential donors would be much bigger for the Republicans?
You see the problems cropping up locally. The Colorado Republican Party has already given up on taking back their congress in 2008. In Alabama, polls show that the Democrats have achieved parity in party identification. Consider the results of Carville’s latest polling (.pdf):
These conclusions are grounded in Democracy Corps’ first “battleground” poll of 1,600 interviewees — a robust sample — in 70 districts, half Democratic and half Republican, which the authors believe will be in play in 2008.
On average, Democratic candidates hold a 9-point lead in these districts which supported Republican candidates by 1 point in 2006 and President Bush by 8 points in 2004. Even “marginal” Democratic incumbents hold 20 point leads on average and poll in the mid-50s. Democrats virtually tie the vote in competitive Republican-held districts, 45 to 43 percent, and beat the opposition by 8 points in suburban-rural districts.
It’s all slipping away from the Republicans, but don’t tell that to David Broder.
There is such a distaste out there among the people for both these parties, and what the Democratic Congress is doing is to destroy the reputation of any Democrat who comes out of Congress, as all of the major candidates do, and what George Bush has done is to destroy the credibility of any Republican running as his successor leaves it wide open, if not for Bloomberg, then for somebody else to come down the middle.
It’s true that Congress is tremendously unpopular. But all the other signs show a major shift to the left throughout the country. Congress can still screw this up…there’s no question about that. And a serious third-party run from the left could still elect a Republican president. For Democrats in Washington the question they have to answer is how aggressive they should be about both addressing the crimes of the Bush administration and ending the war in Iraq. Do nothing and they’ll invite a progressive challenge. Do too much and they might bring down a pox on both their houses mentality.
The one thing that seems certain is that the Republicans will continue to dig their hole deeper. Whether the Dems will jump in the hole and start helping in the big question. Here’s Carville’s strategy:
For the authors of “On the Offensive,” the solution is not to back off on the Iraq war as a political issue to focus exclusively on domestic issues. Rather, they recommend “bursts of engagement on Iraq taken as far as our majorities will take us, recognizing Democrats are gaining against the President.” These Iraq bursts should be alternated with similar bursts on domestic issues, “achieving laws where possible but engagement with the President where not.” In this way, say the memo writers, the Democrats can remain on the offensive.
If we look at congressional approval numbers, this strategy appears to be failing. But if we look at other metrics, like fundraising and party identification, it appears to be paying off in spades.
No one wants to give money to or be publicly identified with the Republican Party. And that could mean a true realignment is coming. The wildcard remains Iraq.
