I currently am predicting that the Democrats will pick up seven Senate seats in the 2008 elections. You may be surprised to learn that this prediction does not currently include the seats in Oregon or Maine but does include Virginia, Mississippi, and Texas. I also predict that Democrats will hold all 12 of their incumbent seats. Go below the fold for the breakdown of all 22 GOP-held seats.
Virginia
Incumbent: John Warner (considering retirement)
Challenger(s): Mark Warner (considering)
Overview: John Warner raised only $500 in the first quarter and has announced that his second quarter numbers will be anemic as well. All signs point to a retirement. The most likely GOP replacement is Rep. Tom Davis, who hails from the northern suburbs. Davis will need to do well in his home region to have any hope of beating popular ex-Governor Mark Warner. Even if John Warner doesn’t retire Mark Warner would present a strong challenge, if he got into the race. A M.Warner/T. Davis matchup would be competitive and could be impacted by the Democratic presidential nominee.
Prediction: John Warner retires and is replaced by Mark Warner.
Colorado
Incumbent: Wayne Allard (retiring)
GOP Challenger: Fmr. Rep. Bob Shaffer
Challenger(s): Rep. Mark Udall
Overview: This is an open seat. Shaffer, who used to represent Marilyn Musgrave’s 4th district, is a mouth-breathing conservative. Udall is hard to define. He is a member of the New Democratic Caucus, recently caved on the war-funding vote, but represents the liberal Boulder area and has a fairly strong progressive voting record. Colorado has been trending Democratic in recent years and Denver will host the Democratic National Convention.
Prediction: Mark Udall wins this seat by a narrow margin.
New Hampshire
Incumbent: John Sununu
Challenger(s): Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, Liebercrat Katrina Swett, Fmr. Astronaut Jay Buckey, Fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (considering).
Overview: Marchand has indicated that he will drop out if Shaheen gets in. Shaheen ran for this seat five years ago and lost narrowly in a major Republican year. Since that time the Democrats have captured both of New Hampshire’s congressional seats and have taken over the state legislature. Kerry took the state in 2004. Meanwhile, Sununu has not voted like a moderate or taken obvious steps to respond to the changing mood in his state. Ironically, it is the other senator, Judd Gregg, that is making noises about Bush’s Iraq policy. As a result, Shaheen is polling ahead of Sununu by a 57%-29% margin. That indicates to me both that Shaheen will get in, and that the seat will fall to the Democrats regardless of the nominee.
Prediction: Jeanne Shaheen will win this seat in a romp.
Maine
Incumbent: Susan Collins
Challenger(s): Rep. Tom Allen
Overview: Sen. Collins had a 73% approval rating in SurveyUSA’s November poll. However, Rep. Allen represents half the state’s population and is quite popular himself. As the ranking member of the Homeland Security and Government Affairs committee she works closely with Sen. Lieberman, who has endorsed her. It’s not clear whether that endorsement will help or hurt Collins, but it does give her a sheen of ‘bipartisanship’ to trumpet. Maine continues to support Democrats in presidential elections and 2008 should be no different.
Prediction: I don’t bet against senators sporting 73% approval ratings (although I’d like to see a more recent poll). This race will be close and may turn on intangibles. But, as of right now, I have to predict that Collins will retain her seat.
Oregon:
Incumbent: Gordon Smith
Challenger(s): Activist Steve Novick, Businessman Ty Pettit, House Speaker Jeff Merkley (considering), State Senator Alan Bates (considering), Former Monmouth Mayor/Oregon Air National Guard Major Paul Evans (considering), Businesswoman Eileen Brady (considering), Radio personality Jeff Golden (considering), Fmr. Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (considering).
Overview: The Democrats have not settled on a candidate and a LOT depends on the eventual nominee. My personal favorite in this race is Senate Majority Whip Alan Bates, who hails from the southern part of the state, is a family doctor, and a Vietnam Vet. I think he has all the right ingredients to carry out an upset of Sen. Smith.
Prediction: Without a heavyweight candidate in the race, and without knowing the eventual nominee, I have to vote against the Democrats in this race. The state will likely fall to the Democratic presidential nominee though, so the seat should be highly competitive.
Minnesota
Incumbent: Norm Coleman
Challenger(s): Commentator Al Franken, Attorney Mike Ciresi, Businessman/attorney Bob Olson, Professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, Former Minneapolis Alderman Dick Franson, Nobel Laureate/Duke professor Dr. Peter Agre (considering)
Overview: This Democratic nomination should come down to a Franken/Ciresi competition. Reports are that Al Franken outraised Coleman in the second quarter. Minnesota is known for supporting quirky candidates, and Franken certainly fits in that category. The state is reliably blue in presidential elections, but frequently elects ‘moderate’ Republicans to state-wide offices. Franken is about as media-savvy as a candidate can be but his political savvy remains to be seen.
Prediction: This is a toss-up, but I have to think that it leans Democratic. Franken’s strong fundraising is another indicator that Coleman is in trouble. Ciresi might be an even stronger candidate. I think Coleman will go down.
Texas
Incumbent: John Cornyn
Challenger(s): Attorney Mikal Watts, State Rep. Rick Noriega
Overview: A June 19 Survey USA poll gave Cornyn a 42%-43% approval rating, making him the most unpopular Republican in the Senate. The question then becomes, which Democrat can best take advantage of that. Mikal Watts is more socially conservative, which might fit the state, but Noriega is a veteran of the war in Afghanistan, which gives a lot of credibility in taking on Cornyn’s hawkish positions. Watts has pledged to spend up to $10 million of his own fortune. Noriega can expect to raise a lot of money through the netroots.
Prediction: It may sound crazy, especially in presidential election year, but with two strong candidates and Cornyn’s approval ratings, I predict a Democratic takeover of this seat.
North Carolina
Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole
Challenger(s): State Rep. Grier Martin (draft movement), Forsyth County Commissioner Ted Kaplan (considering).
Overview: There were some rumblings that Dole might retire, but she appears to be running for re-election. Democratic recruitment efforts have so far been a disaster with, most recently, Rep. Brad Miller opting against a challenge. Nevertheless, speculative polling has shown that Dole is extremely vulnerable. If John Edwards in on the presidential ticket it could increase her vulnerability. But, first, the Dems must settle on a challenger.
Prediction: Dole wins this seat unless a strong, well-funded challenger emerges.
Mississippi
Incumbent: Thad Cochran (considering retirement)
Challenger(s): Attorney General Mike Moore (if Cochran retires)
Overview: There is a lot of speculation that Cochran will retire. If he doesn’t, he will hold this seat for the GOP. If he does, we will likely see a showdown between AG Moore and Rep. Chip Pickering Jr.
Prediction: Cochran will retire and Moore will beat Pickering Jr.
Alabama
Incumbent: Jeff Sessions
Challenger(s): State Sen. Vivian Figures, Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks
Overview: Neither Figures (who is black) or Sparks (who is white) has officially entered the race, but Sparks has indicated that we will defer to Figures in order to avoid a racially divisive primary. Sen. Figures is not well known statewide and is uncertain how much money she can raise. Her son has done time for selling crack cocaine, which will probably be an issue in the campaign. If she decides against a run, Ron Sparks will probably enter the race and receive major netroots support. Recent polls show that Democrats have now achieved voter identification parity in Alabama. Nevertheless, in a presidential year I have to favor a GOP incumbent in this state.
Prediction: Sessions will retain his seat. The only question is whether he will have to expend any effort to do so.
Alaska
Incumbent: Ted Stevens (considering retirment)
Challenger(s): Unalaska City Councilman Rocky Caldero, 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Ethan Berkowitz (considering), Kenai Peninsula School Board Member Dr. Nels Anderson (considering), Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
Overview: Sen. Stevens is in his mid-80’s and is under an FBI corruption investigation. He is an icon in Alaska, but his time may be up. If he avoids indictment and runs, he could wind up going down in Conrad Burns-style. If he resigns the seat it will lean GOP. The Democrats want Mayor Begich to take on this race and have Ethan Berkowitz challenge at-large Rep. Dan Young.
Prediction: If Stevens doesn’t retire he will be defeated. If he does retire the seat will be retained by the Republicans.
Georgia
Incumbent: Saxby Chambliss
Challenger(s): Ecologist Dr. Rand Knight, Journalist Dale Cardwell,
Former State Representative Wyc Orr (considering), Vernon Jones.
Overview: Chambliss is notorious for his 2002 race against Max Cleland. He was recently booed at a GOP convention for his support of the immigration bill (he responded by flip-flopping). Muckraking journalist Dale Cardwell is running to Chambliss’ right on immigration. He has received almost no press, but I really, really like Dr. Knight and think the netroots should get behind his candidacy. There is a draft movement behind Wyc Orr. Vernon Jones voted for Bush in 2004 and appears to be a black version of Zell Miller.
Prediction: Until a nominee emerges it is hard to predict this race. If the Dem is running hard to Chambliss’ right, it could get interesting in this red-trending state. Personally, I’d like to take my chances with the unapologetically pro-choice and pro-science Dr. Knight. Unfortunately, it is more likely that we’ll see a choice between bad and worse. Chambliss has to be favored at this point.
Tennessee
Incumbent: Lamar Alexander
Challenger(s): Businessman and son of a former popular Governor, Michael Ray McWherter (considering)
Overview: Alexander is a first-term senator without much to show in the way of accomplishments. The Republicans have attempted to protect him by placing him on the Appropriations Committee. He’s neither popular nor particularly unpopular. Call him a relative non-entity. He has recently come out against the surge strategy in Iraq and is acting like a nervous incumbent. He will be a lot happier if former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson is the GOP nominee for president (or vice-president). Little is known about McWherter, but he does have name-recognition and (presumably) money.
Prediction: I have to predict that Alexander holds this seat but it is by no means a certainty.
Idaho
Incumbent: Larry Craig (considering retirement)
Republican challengers: Rancher Rex Rammell, Lt. Gov. Jim Risch
Challenger(s): Fmr. Rep. Larry LaRocco
Overview: Ordinarily, I wouldn’t consider a Democratic victory possible in Idaho, let alone in a presidential election year, but things may conspire in our favor. If Craig retires it will set up a bruising Republican primary between two men that intensely dislike each other. Meanwhile, the Democrats have rallied around former congressman Larry LaRocco, who is pursuing an aggressive online strategy. And the strong showing of Larry Grant in a 2006 congressional race shows that Dems may be resurging in Idaho.
Prediction: Risch will win the primary and go on to narrowly defeat LaRocco.
Oklahoma
Incumbent: James Inhofe
Challenger(s): State Sen. Andrew Rice and State Sen. Kenneth Corn
Overview: A November Survey USA poll showed Inhofe with a 42%-45% approval rating among women and a 46%-41% approval rating overall. It’s hard to believe that his ratings have improved in 2007. Inhofe will be days shy of 74 on election day and his two most likely opponents are both in the 30’s. Sen. Rice, in particular, seems perfectly designed to confront Inhofe. While Inhofe uses religion to justify an aggressive foreign policy, Rice is a divinity student that has dedicated much of his life to opposing religious extremism. Rice’s brother died in the WTC attacks. Rice represents the relatively liberal Oklahoma City, but his youth, energy, and personal experience with terrorism make him an especially compelling candidate. If this race happens it will provide the starkest ideological choice of the cycle.
Prediction: Who knows? A massive upset here could make the baby Jesus cry. For now, I have to favor Inhofe.
New Mexico
Incumbent: Pete Domenici
Challenger(s): Real estate developer Don Wiviott, Activist Jim Hannan, Newspaper Editor Leland Lehrman, Former U.S. Attorney John Kelly (considering)
Overview: Domenici has seen his poll numbers plummet over the US Attorney scandal and he is currently facing a Senate Ethics investigation co-chaired by Sens. Boxer and Cornyn. Nevertheless, Domenici has a tremendous reservoir of good-will in the state. Don Wiviott has recently announced his candidacy and he has the money to make a race of it. Of course, there could be no better exploitation of Pajama Pete’s weakness than to run a former U.S. Attorney against him. John Kelly would perfectly fit that bill.
Prediction: Domenici will find a way to pull this out while Cornyn covers his flank on the Ethics Committee.
Kansas
Incumbent: Pat Roberts
Challenger(s): none announced. Possibilities include: Steve Boyda – husband & campaign manager for Rep. Nancy Boyda KS-2, Joe Hoagland – fmr GOP House Majority Leader, and Jill Docking, who ran for the seat in 1996.
Overview: Pat Roberts received an underwhelming 50%-41% approval rating in a June SurveyUSA poll. He’ll be 72 on election day. The Democrats have had some recent successes in Kansas and have a popular Governor in Kathleen Sebelius. Gov. Sebelius is more likely to run for Sam Brownback’s seat, which should be open in 2010. It is the absence of a major opponent for Roberts that makes him seem invulnerable. The polls suggest he might have some problems.
Prediction: Roberts will hold this seat.
Nebraska
Incumbent: Chuck Hagel
Challenger(s): Fmr. Sen. Bob Kerrey, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, Scott Kleeb.
Overview: Hagel pledged to serve only two terms and seems disinclined to break that promise. If he runs he will first have to defeat AG Jon Bruning and possibly former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub. (Other possibilitlies: Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns, Tony Raimondo, Pete Ricketts).
Prediction: Hagel will retire and Kerrey will jump in. In a battle between Kerrey and Bruning, I have to favor Kerrey.
South Carolina
Incumbent: Lindsey Graham
Challenger(s): none
Overview: State Republicans are furious with Graham, especially over his support of immigration reform. There have been major rumblings about a primary challenge. It’s unlikely, especially in a presidential election year, that the Dems will be able to exploit this intraparty feud.
Prediction: It might not be Graham, but some Republican will hold this seat.
Wyoming
Incumbent: Michael Enzi
Challenger(s): none
Overview: Enzi is unbeatable and probably will not face any opposition.
Prediction: Enzi holds this seat.
Wyoming
Incumbent: Michael Barrasso
GOP Challengers: Former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis (considering), Former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead (considering)
Challenger(s): Gary Trauner (considering)
Overview: this is a special election for a 4-year term to replace the recently deceased Sen. Craig Thomas.
Prediction: After a bruising primary it might be possible for Gary Trauner to take this seat. In 2006, Trauner narrowly lost his statewide race for Wyoming’s at-large House seat. But that may be exactly why he will pass this race up and run for the House seat again. If Trauner doesn’t run, we may wind up conceding both Wyoming seats for lack of viable candidates.
Kentucky
Incumbent: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
Challenger(s): 2003 Lt. Gov. nominee Charlie Owen (considering), State Attorney General Greg Stumbo (considering)
Overview: McConnell could conceivably face a primary challenge. As it is, he only enjoys a 52%-42% approval rating in the June SurveyUSA poll. And he recently backed the loser in a GOP gubernatorial primary. As Minority Leader, McConnell is attached to Bush by the hip.
Prediction: If either Owen or Stumbo get in this race will be a high profile death match, reminiscent of the Allen/Webb or Casey/Santorum contests in the last go round. It’s hard to bet against McConnell, but he certainly is not safe.
