For Robert Novak disclosing national security secrets has become a part-time second job. Today’s is a doozy.
Turkey has a well-trained, well-equipped army of 250,000 near the [Iraqi] border, facing some 4,000 PKK [Kurdistan Workers Party] fighters hiding in the mountains of northern Iraq. But significant cross-border operations surely would bring to the PKK’s side the military forces of the Kurdistan Regional Government, the best U.S. ally in Iraq. What is Washington to do in the dilemma of two friends battling each other on an unwanted new front in Iraq?
The surprising answer was given in secret briefings on Capitol Hill last week by Eric S. Edelman, a former aide to Vice President Cheney who is now undersecretary of defense for policy. Edelman, a Foreign Service officer who once was U.S. ambassador to Turkey, revealed to lawmakers plans for a covert operation of U.S. Special Forces to help the Turks neutralize the PKK. They would behead the guerrilla organization by helping Turkey get rid of PKK leaders that they have targeted for years.
Edelman’s listeners were stunned. Wasn’t this risky? He responded that he was sure of success, adding that the U.S. role could be concealed and always would be denied.
So, why is Novak going public with this information from a secret briefing? It’s because key congressional Republicans think Bush is unhinged.
The Bush administration is trying to prevent another front from opening in Iraq, which would have disastrous consequences. But this gamble risks major exposure and failure.
The Turkish initiative reflects the temperament and personality of George W. Bush. Even faithful congressional supporters of his Iraq policy have been stunned by the president’s upbeat mood, which makes him appear oblivious to the loss of his political base. Despite the failing effort to impose a military solution in Iraq, he is willing to try imposing arms — though clandestinely — on Turkey’s ancient problems with its Kurdish minority, who comprise one-fifth of the country’s population.
In other words, certain GOP members think the President is crazy. Who leaked this highly sensitive information to Novak? Let’s take a guess.
The plan shows that hard experience has not dissuaded President Bush from attempting difficult ventures employing the use of force. On the contrary, two of the most intrepid supporters of the Iraq intervention — John McCain and Lindsey Graham– were surprised by Bush during a recent meeting with him. When they shared their impressions with colleagues, they commented on how unconcerned the president seemed. That may explain his willingness to embark on such a questionable venture against the Kurds.
The fact that Novak decided to do this story is pretty telling about how far Bush’s star has fallen. I guess Novak enjoyed being the subject of a leak investigation for over four years. He’s probably about to get another visit from the FBI.
Meanwhile, the actual underlying policy is hard to critique. Certainly, whatever prevents a Turkish invasion, or a total rupture of U.S./Turkish relations, is worth considering. But, knowing Bush’s track record, why would anyone trust him to ’embark on such a questionable venture against the Kurds’?
Wait, wait…Novakula unloading a hit piece on Bush?
I’m trying to see the third or fourth turn of chess moves resulting from this, but all I can come up with is that Novak decided to stop playing chess altogether and pulled out a deck of cards, then stacked the deck against the Preznit.
This one’s totally off the reservation, especially with the assumption that Kurds never, ever, read the WaPo or something and see all this stuff that US is supposedly offering their heads to Turkey.
The hell is going on?
what’s going on?
Republicans are holding an intervention.
You mean they’re intervening? Not necessarily. Maybe they just want to see how far this balloon can drift. The U.S. cannot dictate to Turkey—no way. This means the two countries will carry out special operations in Iraq, and Turkey somehow, ironically, becomes part of Bush’s coalition. Or maybe the reverse. The alternative is to let Turkey invade Iraqi Kurdistan. One way or the other, the Kurds are going to be on the short end of the stick. This is all too much to bear. Turkey can call on NATO to assist it against the invading Iraqi Kurds. And the U.S. can support this claim, making the case for an ally in need. In Iranian Kurdistan, two years ago, I was told I could openly say I’m American because the Kurds liked the U.S. For them Iraqi Kurdistan was a source of wonder. I wonder what they’ll say after Turkey and the U.S. get going? They’re not especially fond of the Turks as it is.
Not to mention Novak’s ego makes him the perfect guy for the job.
Of course, the entire concept of “Robert Novak to the rescue of the Republic!” makes me throw up in my mouth a little.
You mean they’re intervening?
More like: Dubya is about to discover that his steering wheel is not connected to anything, and then the big guys will gather round and have a TALK.
You know: INTERVENTION.
Oh, I think that Butch knows this. Or at least his handlers do. Butch himself? What does it matter WHAT he thinks? He has been a figurehead from the get-go.
AG
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Edelman’s two-year stay in Ankara turned into a lightning rod for deepening anti-U.S. sentiment in Turkey. The Turkish columnist Ibrahim Karagul wrote: “Edelman is probably the least-liked and trusted American ambassador in Turkish history” (quoted in K. Gajendra Singh, “U.S.-Turkish Relations Go Wobbly Now Over Syria,” Al Jazeerah, March 23, 2005).
In a column for the newspaper Yeni Safak, Karagul wrote: “Considering the range of his activities, his statements which violate the decorum of democracy, and his interest in Turkey’s internal affairs, Eric Edelman acts more like a colonial governor than an ambassador. Edelman’s actions have exceeded his diplomatic mission. His `interest’ in nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the Turkish media, and ethnic minorities make him go beyond his role as an ambassador. His presence here has never contributed to Turkish-American relations, and it never will. If we want to address the reasons for anti-Americanism, Edelman must be issue one. As long as Edelman stays in Turkey, the chill wind disturbing bilateral relations will last.”
As the war and occupation in Iraq went badly for the United States, the U.S. government blamed Turkey for failing to join the “coalition of the willing.” Defense Secretary Rumsfeld told FoxNews on March 20, 2005 that “the insurgency today would be less” if Turkey had cooperated with U.S. invasion plans. “Given the level of the insurgency today, two years later, clearly, if we had been able to get the Fourth Infantry Division in from the north through Turkey, more of the Iraqi Saddam Hussein Ba’athist regime would have been captured or killed,” said Rumsfeld.
Washington also charged that Turkey viewed “liberated” Iraq with increasing hostility. As tensions with Syria increased, rather than siding with the United States, Turkey increased its contacts with the besieged regime of President Bashar al Assad. A turning point in Syrian-Turkey relations was Assad’s visit to Ankara in 2004 (Reuters, March 1, 2005).
Turkey refused to support the U.S. and French demand that Syria remove all its troops from Lebanon. Many in Turkey believe that Washington has attempted to “franchise” what has been dubbed the “Cedar Revolution” in Lebanon. Stepping into the fray, Edelman said, “What can be said on Syria is that the international community is completely unanimous on UN Security Council Resolution 1559,” which called on Syria immediately to withdraw its troops from Lebanon. “We hope Turkey will join the international community,” said Edelman (Al Jazeerah, March 23, 2005).
[All links are mine – Oui]
Ehud Barak, the former Israeli Prime Minister, who supported the Bush Administration’s invasion of Iraq, took it upon himself at this point to privately warn Vice-President Dick Cheney that America had lost in Iraq; according to an American close to Barak, he said that Israel “had learned that there’s no way to win an occupation.” The only issue, Barak told Cheney, “was choosing the size of your humiliation.” Cheney did not respond to Barak’s assessment.
Now, Israel has hundreds of agents, including members of Mossad operating in the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq. In addition Mossad is now conducting covert operations in Kurdish areas of Iran and Syria. One former Israeli intelligence officer told Hersh “It’s Realpolitik. By aligning with the Kurds Israel gains eyes and ears in Iran, Iraq and Syria.”
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Sooooo… in other words, Israel’s doing exactly what the Bush administration has been accusing Iran of doing… Strange that this isn’t getting quite the objections or protests from the Administration that they are raising against Iran. (yeah, right…)
Another possible interpretation: the “crazy like a fox scenario.” (While Bush might not be capable of this, Cheney certainly is…)
Imagine you’re Dick Cheney, trying to figure out how to finesse the PKK-Turkish conflict. You want to make both sides think you’re on their side, so you keep your influence, while in fact you want to do nothing except prolong the shaky status quo until you can punt the problem to the next administration. So you do it like this:
(a) a ruse to get the Turks off their backs and get them some breathing space to address the PKK themselves, or
(b) a wacky idea some off-the-reservation underling thought up (the “Oliver North Memorial Scenario”), that you’d never dream of actually doing to such a key ally.
The down side – both sides trust you less than before.
The up side – it punts the ball down the field so matters don’t blow up until the next (Democratic) administration gets into power.
Unless you’re firmly convinced Bush/Cheney will not be leaving office in 2009, you should expect to see more and more punting as the end of the administration nears.
and that the Kurds are up for being betrayed yet again. I think both are unlikely: The Turks have been watching the US in action at close range for four years now and are not impressed. The Kurds have less room to maneuver, but have surely figured out the hard way that the US is not reliable.
US humanINT is now so bad we don’t even know who to go to to cut a deal. Everybody (over there) understands what sending in a horde of US troops means. And they have made their plans for that.
But meanwhile, the troops really don’t exist anyway.
We are trying to fool them, but we are only fooling ourselves. Amazing: An entire national government, totally clueless about its main business.
Being cast as the Woodward of this Watergate sequel.
(Or perhaps trying to cast himself.)
Watch.
The Ratpublicans are applying the pressure. Which they mkust. An impeachment/resignation scenario cannot come about without both parties agreeing in principle that itr must be done.
This move says that eventhey realize that:
1-Butch and Cheney are insane. One stupid insane, one not so stupid but even more nuts.
2-There will be no “Republican Party” left if CheneyBushCo and NeoConCo continue on their current path.
and
3-There is a good possibility that we will Strangeloved us into a nuclear war by these fools. That would be VERY bad for business, now wouldn’t it? Even the semi-incompetent big money establishment of the US is awake enough to understand THAT principle.
Watch.
Butch is going down.
AG
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Dangers of a Cornered George Bush
by Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) & Dr. Justin Frank
Martial Law Threat is Real
Dave Lindorff
≈ Cross-posted from my diary — Yo Brown! ≈
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."I do not believe that enough of the U.S. military/intel apparatus would accede to these tactics to make them successful.
Evidence?
If it was practical, it would already have happened.
I believe that lines have alrerady been drawn and warnings given.
Watch.
AG
If it was practical, it would already have happened.
And therein lies hope, such as hope is.
It is…and has been, essentially, since Murtha fired his warning shot and the commanders of several sets of US forces simultaneously essentially refused to put their troops at further risk to recapture insurgent-held inner cities in Iraq…a stalemate.
Y’know…I am convinced that there are many backstories to all of this. For example, I often ask why the 9/11 plotters did not bypass the World Trade Center buildings and simply drop their airliners on the Indian Point nuke plant 20 miles north of NYC on the Hudson River. And the only answer that I can come up with is that they and their superiors had been thoroughly warned of the nuclear consequences that awaited the Islamic world if they went over the line and began killing hundreds of thousands here.
These people…on both sides…parse death and destruction as if they were sentences in a sworn testimony. On one side of the line…clever. On the other…perjury. And its always resultant severe penalties.
So too with CheneyBush.
They also have been warned.
Like cops and gangsters, both sides play the game by a set of “rules”.
In the case of cops ‘n robbers…no killing politicians and policemen. No killing families of players. Or else you get shut down, and BOTH sides lose. The bad guys and the good guys. Both of whom are in on the game. The BIG game.
Ditto with CheneyBush.
This far and no further or we will shut you down. Take your profits, but DO NOT FUCK WITH THE SYSTEM ON ANY PRIMARY LEVEL.
Because if you do, it will be bad for everybody’s business and we will fuck you up if you try.
Stalemate.
Play by the rules…OUR rules…and do not mess up the action. If you win…the action remains undisturbed. If you lose…the game still continues and not much changes exceot that some others get to take their piece for a while.
And you can go home rich, famous and defeated. To mount a new effort if you so desire.
But always by the rules.
While the PermaGov remains.
However…mess with the very structure of the PermaGov?
OHHHHH no!!!
That we will not allow.
So…at least until 2008…we have a stalemate.
So it goes.
Just as it always has been.
So it goes.
Until the new guys come in.
Later…
AG
…Even faithful congressional supporters of his Iraq policy have been stunned by the president’s upbeat mood, which makes him appear oblivious to the loss of his political base. …
Bush doesn’t care what support he does/doesn’t have as his divorce from reality is now apparently complete.