I’ve come to the conclusion that we are not going to get the votes in September to force a wind-down of the war in Iraq. This is mainly because Gen. Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker are going to give an upbeat report that will assert that the surge is working well enough to justify its continuance. But it is also because the Democrats have powerful disincentives to making a big enough stink to force a change. Craig Crawford has it about right:
Look for the White House and its allies on Capitol Hill to blunt the next Democratic effort by declaring that the U.S. is winning the war and that the surge in troops is making a difference.
That argument could be well served by the very event that Democrats had expected to be the turning point toward their anti-war point of view: a progress report from the military man running things in Iraq. Democrats once thought that Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, who is widely respected by both parties for his expertise and candor, would come forth in September with a bleak assessment of the situation on the ground and that his pessimism would justify a meltdown of GOP support for Bush’s course in Iraq. But a different story is now emerging from the Petraeus camp, suggesting instead that he will report that the surge is working well enough to keep it going. And he is expected to conclude forcefully that withdrawal would only lead to bigger problems for both the United States and Iraq.
Encouraged by such previews of the Petraeus report, the White House is tapping sympathetic senators, including Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Independent Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, for what amounts to a full-scale political campaign to thwart the next drive against the war in the Senate, where the balance of power in the debate resides.
Even in the House, where a majority is clearly against the war, plenty of Republicans from conservative districts are still willing to go to bat against a withdrawal plan. “There are actually a few Republicans left who can explain and defend the policy — and, as importantly, the consequences of defeat,” Matalin said.
It’s political suicide for the Republicans, but they appear ready to die and the Democrats seem inclined to sit by and watch.
Nothing less than the constitutional calendar dictates that Bush needs to survive only this next test to keep his Iraq policy intact. After September he will just have to run out the clock on Congress for another 15 months — not a tough task for him, considering that he has successfully deflected the growing anti-war forces on Capitol Hill for the past couple of years. Even last year’s midterm election, transferring control of Congress to the Democrats, has so far not deterred this president’s fierce resolve to stay his course.
“The fall may be the only moment Congress is going to have to force President Bush to change directions in Iraq,” said Larry J. Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. “It’s highly unlikely there will be another confluence of events that can push this president to jump the track he’s been on.”
Still, Democrats are obligated to try, or they risk angering the legions of anti-war voters in their political base. Oddly, the party’s best-case scenario could be failure. If Democrats muster enough votes to override a Bush veto and impose a new policy on him, they’ll hand a rhetorical sword to the president and his GOP allies, who will argue for the rest of their natural lives that the United States could have won the war if Democrats had not succumbed to defeat. There is also a short-term advantage to Democrats in losing the September showdown: They could enter the 2008 campaign arguing that only a vote for a Democrat is a vote for real change in Iraq.
And that is one measure of Bush’s determination to keep control of this unpopular war through the coming debate: To do so, he seems more than ready to sacrifice Republican control of the White House or any hopes for his party to retake Congress next year.
The Democrats are enjoying a huge surge in fundraising and party-identification. The election of ’08 is setting up to be an historical blowout. I just doubt they are willing to rock the boat while they have such smooth sailing.
If they are going to do anything crazy it will be related to Gonzales and the Department of Justice. The war? I am not seeing it.
Cold political calculus that will cost how many lives?
The Dems are soooo sure that we will stand for this and believe them that they will do something after the next election. We believed them in 2004. We believed them in 2006. They have every reason to believe we will be docile little sheeple.
Yeah that seems to be consensus in my family as well. I think I must be the only “the means do NOT justify the ends” person left in my neck of the democratic woods.
Like the dems caving on the FISA issue.. if we just sit back and cave and cave until the next years elections what will left of our country to take back?
I just hope that everyone else is right and that all we have to do is let the current leadership keep screwing up. They have more faith in the republican sense of desperation that I do, however.
Blue Dogs = Republican Lite
Dem Leadership = Status Quo
Yes, I’m sure they will not do anything to force Georgie to change course. This has always been obvious to me because they would run too great a risk, to their mind, that they will be held responisble for defeat. Georgie will spin it so that he looks like the vicitim of their cowardice. You see, Georgie never does anything wrong. He is simply misunderstood at every turn and suffers terribly. On the other hand, the Democrats will be stuck with the whole mess come January 2009 and will have to decide to go on or stop. One way or the other the U.S. has no hope in Iraq and the Democrats will still be held responsible by many for the unsuccessful outcome of Georgie’s aggression against Iraq.
It has already been noted how cynical the ‘game’ is because only more people will be condemned to death. Can you imagin, Mrs. Carville has the nerve to open her mouth in public after all the harm she and her co-WHIG vampires have done to the U.S.
More and more, I think the Dems may be in for a stunning shock come November next year. The Republicans will always have their faithful fools to scrape up from the bottom of the American barrel. Who will the Dems have after they’ve given us all the strength and beauty of kleenex in a toilet?
Last night we finally got around to watching Greenwald’s Iraq for Sale film on DVD. As it happened, right after the film ended, our PBS station reran Bill Moyers’s program discussing impeachment. It turned out to be one of those mind-altering experiences.
Iraq, we already knew in our hearts, was never about anything but corporate profits and political banditry. Greenwald just put the final candle on that deathday cake. The Moyers guests, one from the Nation and one from the Heritage Foundation, made an airtight case that impeaching Bush and Cheney is essential for the future of the American republic (watch it online at pbs.org). It is not about payback or punishment, or even about Bush or Cheney: it is about the only way available to let Clinton or Giuliani or Romney or Obama or Edwards and all who come after them know that America will not stand for presidents who think they are kings. That is the issue that overshadows even the homicidal treason of Iraq.
So will the Dems do anything about Iraq? You’re probably right: given their craven triangulating on FISA, they’ll let Iraq slide, too. Maybe it doesn’t really matter any more. Maybe all that matters at this point is to defend and protect the founding vision of a nation without kings.
More and more, I think the Dems may be in for a stunning shock come November next year.
Yes. The Dem’s are afraid that actually doing something to end the war is too risky, but I am not sure whether they realize that doing what they are doing—pretending to try to end the war while not actually doing anything to scale it down in anyway—carries its own risks.
The Dem’s winning both houses of Congress in 2006 was the result of the public’s expectation that they would do something to end the war. By 2008, the public will realize that the Dems don’t really want to end the war, or are too incompetent to do so, or a combination of both. Therefore, I don’t foresee that the Dems will do any better in 2008 than in 2006. A few more seats perhaps, but certainly not enough to get a supermajority. And if Hillary is the presidential candidate, the Rethugs would probably keep the White House.
On the other hand, if the Dems impeached Bush and Cheney, whether they ended the war or not, the Rethugs would be routed in the next election, the way they were after Nixon was driven from the White House. The Dems just can’t keep snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
hey dave- I thought you had it right but then: what the hell are you talking about in your closing? Defend and protect the founding vision!! Hello!!!!!!!!!!! I gotta say- you lost me.
Thats what this is all about. why not reread your closing and work on it. Craven triangulation?? The dems have sold out the country. Plain and simple. If one ties ones hands voluntarily and or rules out the best weapon legitimately in their possession– IMPEACHMENT– then they have blown their chance and have instead screwed us all!
I say to hell with them. we have to start all over again and if it takes another ton of years, we gotta get it right this time.
What I’m talking about is the reality that our problems go a lot deeper than even Iraq. If Bush-Cheney get away with transforming the US into a monarchy (which was the founders’ overriding fear), it is no longer just about them — it is about every president following them. No politician gives up power voluntarily. Moyers’s guests describe what Bush has done to extend presidential impunity a toolbox that will be used by all Bush’s successors. The republic will be truly lost. The only remedy is impeachment now.
The homicidal war in Iraq will end in disaster no matter what we do. Resisting Bush’s outrages against American justice and democracy piecemeal will do little more than buy time. The only real test for the Democrats, the only act that will matter when the history books are written, is whether they stand up and use impeachment to say, “we do not and will not have kings in America”. Every other issue becomes meaningless in comparison.
And the fact is that the elites, regardless of factional affiliation, have fought bitterly FOR a monarchy, or at least an oligarchy, since it became clear to them that “landed anglo-american males” constituted a clear minority of the population, AND that the majority was not willing to settle for serfdom. There have been a limited number of exceptions, and there remains some at least theoretical level of noblesse oblige for public consumption, but as a matter of policy we have a functional monarchy/dictatorship with the advice and considered consent of the leadership of both wings of the party.
Expecting either group of power-chasing elitists to walk away now that they’re on the cusp of getting what they’ve wanted for well over a century is …. I’ll be polite and say “Unrealistic.”
There are a limited number of options left, I think. Get out now, submit and begin playing the game for whatever you can get out of it, go underground and wait for the inevitable collapse (feudalism is not a viable long-term organizing principle when the populace is literate), or…
There isn’t a “within the system” solution any more (if there ever was, about which I’m not sure. Not in my lifetime, at any rate…)
I am with Dave W, if our simpering leaders couldn’t find the passion, duty and cojones to stop the odious FISA bill, how the hell are they going to stop Iraq? And another question, who the hell among democrats thought Petraeus was such a fair, honest and independent voice? WTF? Were they not aware of the total BS disingenuous cheerleading op-ed piece he wrote for the Bushies immediately prior to the 2004 election?
Guys, rather than bemoaning the fact that the Democrats will fold (which they almost surely will at this point), call the DNC and tell them that you will NOT donate to, volunteer for, or even vote for ANY Democrat until the 41 congresspersons who voted for FISA are held accountable. Tell them that you want to see Gonzalez impeached. Tell them “No to war with Iran” tell them that you will donate money to Cindy Sheehan if they do not act to end the war in Iraq immediately!
See this post for more information:
http://scaryshit.blogspot.com/2007/08/thanks-for-stopping-by.html
Don’t passively sit back and complain about how awful the Democrats are. Do something about it. Hold them accountable like the wingers do to the Republican party.
That’s what I was going to suggest. If we have the sense that this is going to happen (all signs point to yes), then we should ramp up our efforts during August to make it clear to all of our congresscritters that we won’t stand for it.
They work for us, not the other way around.
(o/t but welcome to BooTrib, looks like you’re lucky user #5000!)
Hate to disagree with you Manny, but….
Fact is they DON’T work for us, and they haven’t since God was a puppy.
And the only thing wrong with this entire thread is the title of the post. The D’s aren’t going to “fold” – they’re going to play out their assigned role in this kabuki charade. They’ll receive Petraeus’s report, read the first and last pages, have a very intense meeting, and announce afterward that enough members of the Caucus (all the ones from seats designed for R’s, padded out with a handful of other BlueDogs), have been persuaded that the Iraq war is going well if we just give it another few months…
And in February the SpyingOnAmericans Act will be working (but they can’t talk about it) so they’ll just have to renew that one too…
It’s a very well done kabuki, and I admire well-acted bullshit… but it remains that this is bullshit from first to last. The D’s and the R’s are on the same side, they work for the same people, and WE AIN’T THOSE PEOPLE.
sorry, you’re going to have to do better than that to disagree with me, because I happen to agree! 🙂
The thing is, what are we supposed to do about it? I hate to channel Rummy here but at the moment we have the government we have, not the one we want. I’m thankful that I have a rep in the House that almost always votes the way I would like (Raul Grijalva), but the two Senators from Arizona are another beast altogether. Doesn’t stop me from calling them, though. If they don’t hear from us, then they aren’t having any seed of doubt in their minds that what they’re doing is often tantamount to evil. We have to push back on them, the trick is trying to do it forcefully enough where they start to pay attention. Hell, I would be happy if some of them would just bother to think
Of course, the other side of it is that we have to recruit and support candidates that speak our truths regardless of what the Conventional Wisdom™ has to say or who the party bosses choose to anoint. They can speed gobs of dollars on races, but we still hold the power in the voting box. We just have to stop counting them before election day and kick some ass in the streets.
No one loves number 4999 xD
<3
(kidding kidding :))
I feel like we met in a previous life 😉
hope you’re doing good, in whatever incarnation you appear!
Why thank you , Man Egee. Your instincts probably serve you well xD
Hey Matt, welcome to the Frog Pond. You’re user 5000.
Good to be here, thank you. Enjoy the site. We (average, everyday, progressive citizens) actually do have a whole heck of a lot of power, if we choose to exercise it, and that’s the power of fear. Our Democratic congress does not fear the Democratic base in the same way that the Republican party does. They know that they can get away with murder, because we will continue to vote for them because we are scared shitless of the Republicans. We (the electorate, progressive citizens in general) are the ones who always have to make the compromises, never the Democratic leadership. The Republican party is much, much more responsible to their base than our party is. That is not a fault of the Democratic leadership, it is natural for them to act like scumbags, that is what politicians do by nature, if not held accountable. There is no one to blame but ourselves for the FISA vote, the war in Iraq, and even more terrifyingly, a possible war with Iran involving a nuclear first strike. Howard Dean wasn’t bullshitting four years ago when he started saying that WE have the power. It is simply a question of whether will we exercise it or not. I just cannot stand the resignedness of so many progressives and liberals out there. The feeling that all of this bad stuff was inevitable, and that continued horrible stuff is also inevitable. I was always taught to get off of your lazy ass and do something about it, rather than just sit on the sidelines and complain. I am, however, a reasonable person and do realize that we may not be able to accomplish what we want. As terrifying a thought as that might be, we could be too far down the wrong track already. But I can tell you one thing, I sure as hell plan to go down swinging. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”
-Edmund Burke
I agree with all that you are saying in your latest posting except for your claim that the 08 election is setting up to be a historical blowout. Unless of course you mean that the goopers are going to blow out the dems! Thats right. it is NOT a misprint, Given the performance of the dems over the past congressional gathering, who in their right mind thinks for one second that a dem blowout is coming>The gooper 25 to 36 % is not bending at all and the success of the gooper program of putting the unpatriotic label on the dems has succeeded so well that all one has to do is check out the ratings of the congressional performance.
The dems blew it and they will now pay for their stupidity.
The did not understand that what the voters were saying in 06 was very simply: screw traditions, get the crooks, liars and thieves out. AND- bring the troops home!!! Once that was defeated by the goopers, the rest was a piece of cake! Now the goopers are preparing to ship the dems out to Kings’ Wasteland!
No habeus. No Privacy. No judicial rights for the individual. No pensions. no health coverage. and on and on and on!
I think you are probably right, UNLESS something big happens to overshadow the Republican Happy Happy War War PR Parade.
Have you read Sidney Blumenthal’s article from Salon this week about Colin Powell? It’s interesting. I highly recommend you read the whole thing. I wonder if he’s on to something.
He speculates that Powell might just make some big announcement or release a book or something in September and points to rumblings in the White House about it.
I agree that the Dems will likely focus on the Justice Department next month but we make the best gains when BushCo gets attacked from multiple fronts simultaneously. They can’t stay “on message” and the Great Illusion starts to really crumble as PR folks stumble.
Let’s hope.
as you pointed out the other day, they have investments too: defense jobs, armament manufacturing, casket factories, ribbon-shaped magnets (oh wait, those are made in China).
But Ribbon-Shaped-Magents that are made in China yield higher profit margins than if they were made in the U.S. Just like American Flags, you know. The investor class doesn’t care where it’s made just so long as they get the maximum profit from each unit sold to the Nationalistic Schmucks.
I confess I am losing the will to vote. My father has said he won’t bother and that is something I thought I would never see. Pelsosi is totally committed to ignoring the public and it is because she is ideologically prowar, not because she is a political pragmatist. Her one antiwar vote was actually the pragmatic one, to make herself look like she was representing San Francisco. The Dems are stupidly falling for Hillary Clinton even though her supporters, like Rahm Emmanual really want us to get into a knock down drag out with Iran.
I am concentrating my activism on antirecrutement efforts, because making sure kids don’t elist is the only way to stop it. You say you can’t imagine any kid signing up, but you should hear the slick adds clear channel radio is running promising non combat positions and good bonuses for college.
If I lived in San Francisco I would definately be campaigning for Sheehan. I really don’t have any hope for politicians these days, I don’t trust any of them.
We need to get rid of anyone who’s been part of trashing the Constitution. Party doesn’t matter.