If you want to know why the Democrats are caving on FISA, refusing to invoke inherent contempt, and are not ending the war, look no further than Stan Greenberg’s latest poll results (.pdf). Simply put, the Dems are sailing with the wind at their back and they feel little need to take risks.
Right now, the Democrats enjoy an average lead of 12 points in the generic presidential race (51 to 39 percent) and 9 points in the named congressional ballot (51 to 42 percent). But let us point to some of the trends underneath that make 2008 look like a very big election.
• The Democrats’ lead in both the Presidential and Congressional races is undiminished in
the ‘core’ group of the most likely voters. Usually, the Republicans cut some of the
margin on Election Day because of turnout patterns, but that is not likely in 2008.• Education – one of the best predictors of vote over the past decade – is losing its power,
with both well-educated and blue collar voters moving to the Democrats. In the Congressional ballot, for example, the high school educated give the Democrat an 11-point lead, dropping to 10 points among those with some high school and 8 points among the college educated. In short, the rush to be done with the Republicans is turning
America a little classless.• The ‘opinion elite’ in the country – those with a college education and earning more than
$75,000 – are supporting the Democratic presidential candidate by 11 points (52 to 41
percent). The elites are apparently fed up with the state of the country under George Bush.• While the Democratic Presidential candidate is winning the Kerry counties by a two-toone
margin, the Republican candidate is only winning the Bush counties by 1 point (46 to 45 percent). The Republican nominee will struggle to come back in the battleground states. Just as important, a lot of Republican incumbents will be running in supposedly ‘red’ districts and states, but find them evenly divided. The Republican Presidential
candidate is barely ahead among white rural voters (48 to 41 percent).The Democratic Presidential candidate is carrying those with family members serving in
Iraq by almost the same margin as for voters overall, 50 to 43 percent. Democratic
Congressional candidates who have been prominently trying to change Iraq policy have
an even larger lead, 53 to 42 percent.• The Democratic Presidential candidate is carrying all Catholics by 18 points and white
Catholics by 13 (51 to 38 percent). This would represent a major change in political
direction. In fact, the Democrat is running marginally ahead among white Catholics who
attend Church every week.• The big difference in the race is independents: Presidentially, Democrats are ahead by 19
points; Congressionally, by 14 points. It is the crash with independents more than
Republican defections that is driving the Republican vote down.• The Democrats are getting landslide margins with voters under 30; they are even winning
whites under 30 by 14 points.• Instead of losing younger white non-college men by 19 points as in 2004, the Democratic
Presidential candidate now is losing them by only 2.• Union voters have not in recent decades been as solid for the Democrats as now. In fact,
Democrats are winning white union households by two-to-one.• One of the key blocs of ‘swing’ voters is married women. They are breaking marginally
for the Democrats this year after swinging strongly for the Republicans in 2004. White
married women are breaking even in the Presidential, and Congressionally, the
Republican candidate is ahead by only 4 points.• One of the key blocs of ‘base’ voters for Democrats is unmarried women – who could
comprise a quarter of the electorate. The Democrats are winning them by two to one;
they are winning white unmarried women by over 20 points.
The big question is why the Republicans are staying the course. Are they freaking nuts? Don’t answer that question.
