I’m the first person to admit that I am no expert on Arizonan politics. So, I am just going to throw out some thoughts here, and people that know the state better can tell me if I am off-base. Rick Renzi (AZ-01) is retiring under an ethical cloud and in the face of a federal investigation. His district is huge.
Other issues include the district’s size — it is larger than Illinois and 25 other states — and its highly diverse population.
The district — home to the vast Navajo reservation — has the largest American Indian population of any congressional district; many members of the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter Days Saints, commonly known as Mormons; retirees from California and other, more expensive locations; and traditional Arizona constituencies such as farmers, ranchers and those involved in the natural resources extraction industries. Flagstaff, the district’s largest city with about 53,000 residents, is “a political place unto its own,” [GOP strategist Kurt] Davis said, with a “hard-core environmental element.”
It turns out that the Native American population may be a crucial swing vote.
Renzi was able to win the district in part because of his significant inroads among American Indians, who historically favor Democrats. Rigorous in-person campaigning helped Renzi win more than half the Indian vote in 2006, Davis said, an anomaly for a Republican. Davis added that other GOP candidates are unlikely to replicate Renzi’s record-breaking results, but with steady campaigning on the reservation should be able to win 30 percent of the Indian vote.
Maybe. But what if the Democratic nominee is Mary Kim Titla of Native Youth Magazine?
Here’s a little from Ms. Titla’s bio:
Mary Kim Titla was born and raised on the San Carlos Apache Reservation in southeastern Arizona…
In 1987 she became the first Native American TV reporter in Arizona when KVOA TV in Tucson hired her. She worked at KVOA for 6 years. KPNX TV hired her in 1993. She worked there until resigning in late 2005 to publish Native Youth Magazine online. Mary Kim has earned numerous awards for her TV news reporting and for the e-zine she created. She was recently inducted into the Walter Cronkite Hall of Fame at Arizona State University.
You should read the full bio because it is very inspirational. It’s my feeling that Titla would hold any Republican to a very low number on the reservations…certainly below 30%.
I’d like to see Titla fill out her issues page a little more before I get really enthusiastic. I am a firm believer that the more women we have in Washington the better our policies will be. And the more minority representation we have, the more balanced our policies will be. And I like to back winners. Could Titla be a winner?
I am familiar with the area. She seems like she could be a winner to me.
I’m a resident of AZ-01, and am keeping a close eye on this race (more on my blog). We have three major dem candidates, each with different strengths. While Ms. Titla could be popular with Native Americans, much of the Navajo tribe is supporting Howard Shanker (http://www.howardshankerforcongress.com/), who has been the attorney for the tribe in a number of major cases. The third candidate, Ann Kirkpatrick, was on the county board of supervisors until she resigned to run for the seat. She also has a good record with the regional tribes. I will be following this race closely, and while I haven’t picked one candidate yet any one of the three would be a huge improvement on Renzi.
Thanks for the info. How do Apache and Navajo get along out there?
It’s a bit of a mixed bag. The biggest tribal conflict is between the Navajo and the Hopi. The Hopi tribe is almost completely surrounded by Navajo land, and there is an ongoing fight over resources. Because the Navajo and Apache don’t have land issues, they tend to unite on national issues. But there are a lot of disputes on water rights, and the pollution from coal plants on tribal lands.
In terms of population within the district, the Navajo outnumber the Apache and Hopi tribes combined (most of the Apache land is in New Mexico).
Generally, the tribes unite on national issues and divide on local issues. The last 3 dem. candidates failed to connect on Native American issues, and it hurt them.
Do you think the Navajo would vote overwhelmingly for a Native American candidate even if she is an Apache? Titla has been very active in Native American advocacy for her entire life, so he credentials would seem beyond reproach.
And, if the answer to my question is yes, would that be decisive, or would she lose even more votes among the non-Native American segment of the electorate?
I would say that in the general, the Navajo would support either Titla or Shanker. In the primary it looks like more of a split, as both have good connections.
As for the non-native population, the demographics won’t change. AZ-01 is a strange mix. Flagstaff (my home) and Prescott are overwhelmingly Dem. and the huge rural regions are solid Rep. I don’t see Titla losing any non-native votes based on being Apache.
I should throw in that while I haven’t yet decided which candidate I’ll volunteer for in the primary, I do lean toward Shanker. I’ve talked with him many times, and he’s very sharp. Ann Kirkpatrick also has a good track record on the environment, so we have 3 candidates that I’m comfortable with.
I’ll be working for whichever wins the primary in the general, and I’ll be happy to throw out some diaries as time allows.
It good to hear that we have good candidates.
I have a fundamental bias against electing attorneys. I know that studying the law is about the best training you can have for writing laws and understanding bills. But we have plenty of those already.
You know what gets me excited? Social workers like Carol Shea-Porter, professors like Dave Loebsack, a waitress like Maggie Carlton, a vet like Patrick Murphy. We need people with different perspectives and backgrounds…working people, intellectuals, middle class people.
So when all else is equal, I shy away from attorneys.
Usually, I agree with you about attorneys. Most of us don’t like attorneys unless we need one. But Howard is one of the “good” attorneys. He’s made his career all about fighting for the “little guy” on environmental issues, tribal issues, and civil liberties. It hasn’t gotten him rich (heck, he drives a honda that’s about 4 or 5 years old), but it has made him passionate.
One of the reasons I’ve grown to like him (I posted this on my blog) is that he’s genuine. I hang at our local brewery with a very political crowd, some very smart people who have a wide variety of views. Some of our debates would look rather heated if you didn’t know us. Howard stops in once in a while for a beer, and he’ll jump right in. This could be a potential minefield for a politician, because we tend to expect a certain level of depth when making arguments, not slogans. Howard has more than held his own, shown that he’s quite well informed, and not afraid to disagree with a potential voter (it’s informal down time, not a campaign event). One area where I been impressed is that he knows his middle east history, which is a special interest of mine. Current middle east politics is one of the most divisive issues around, and there are no “right” answers, but Howard has shown that his opinions are based on a lot of thought. We don’t always agree, but I come away with a respect for his depth of knowledge.
Like I said before, I haven’t decided who’s campaign I’ll be working on. But with the wide range of problems facing the next congress, I don’t want a “single issue” candidate. So, yeah, a lawyer might not be my first choice. A smart candidate might be.
I do not live in that district, But I live in Phoenix, am a native Arizonan and have lived here most of my life. I am friends with and assisted a group of people that played a significant part in getting Renzi his just dues. If you have a moment go to the website for the Southwest Center For Biological Diversity. It is a wonderful group and they have an absolutely great website. As to Titla; I don’t know. She was a newscaster here for a long time. Struck me as nice but dense and slow on the uptake; I think Shanker is a much better option.
http://www.biologicaldiversity.org