I’m the first person to admit that I am no expert on Arizonan politics. So, I am just going to throw out some thoughts here, and people that know the state better can tell me if I am off-base. Rick Renzi (AZ-01) is retiring under an ethical cloud and in the face of a federal investigation. His district is huge.

Other issues include the district’s size — it is larger than Illinois and 25 other states — and its highly diverse population.

The district — home to the vast Navajo reservation — has the largest American Indian population of any congressional district; many members of the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter Days Saints, commonly known as Mormons; retirees from California and other, more expensive locations; and traditional Arizona constituencies such as farmers, ranchers and those involved in the natural resources extraction industries. Flagstaff, the district’s largest city with about 53,000 residents, is “a political place unto its own,” [GOP strategist Kurt] Davis said, with a “hard-core environmental element.”

It turns out that the Native American population may be a crucial swing vote.

Renzi was able to win the district in part because of his significant inroads among American Indians, who historically favor Democrats. Rigorous in-person campaigning helped Renzi win more than half the Indian vote in 2006, Davis said, an anomaly for a Republican. Davis added that other GOP candidates are unlikely to replicate Renzi’s record-breaking results, but with steady campaigning on the reservation should be able to win 30 percent of the Indian vote.

Maybe. But what if the Democratic nominee is Mary Kim Titla of Native Youth Magazine?

Here’s a little from Ms. Titla’s bio:

Mary Kim Titla was born and raised on the San Carlos Apache Reservation in southeastern Arizona…

In 1987 she became the first Native American TV reporter in Arizona when KVOA TV in Tucson hired her. She worked at KVOA for 6 years. KPNX TV hired her in 1993. She worked there until resigning in late 2005 to publish Native Youth Magazine online. Mary Kim has earned numerous awards for her TV news reporting and for the e-zine she created. She was recently inducted into the Walter Cronkite Hall of Fame at Arizona State University.

You should read the full bio because it is very inspirational. It’s my feeling that Titla would hold any Republican to a very low number on the reservations…certainly below 30%.

I’d like to see Titla fill out her issues page a little more before I get really enthusiastic. I am a firm believer that the more women we have in Washington the better our policies will be. And the more minority representation we have, the more balanced our policies will be. And I like to back winners. Could Titla be a winner?

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