Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen has announced that she is running for John Sununu’s senate seat.
A July poll by the University of New Hampshire had Shaheen beating John Sununu by 16 points, 54-38; and, a July poll by the Concord Monitor had Shaheen beating Sununu by an even wider 22 points, 56-34.
Shaheen still has to win a crowded primary, but that seems likely. Shaheen is too much of a New Democrat for my tastes, but I do welcome more women into the U.S. Senate. She will join another centrist in Mark Warner. That puts our majority at 53-47. It’s a bad week to be a Republican. It’s getting ugly down in South Carolina, where the Charleston City Paper is openly questioning whether Lindsey Graham is gay. South Carolina is one of the few and dwindling states where incumbent Republican senators appear safe.
For example, former Rep. Jim Slattery is considering a challenge to aging Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas. If he gets in it could be another competitive race. The Dems seem to be attracting strong challengers and the field continues to expand. If Bob Kerrey gets in in Nebraska, the recruitment task will be almost complete.
Our field of candidates is a little weak in Georgia. We still need to get commitments in North Carolina and Tennessee…although solid candidates are strongly considering runs in both states (Grier Martin in NC, and Michael Ray McWherter in TN). The Mississippi race is hopeless. Alabama could use a stronger challenger. Alaska needs a commitment from Anchorage mayor Mark Begich. There are two Wyoming seats without challengers. And, considering Lindsey Graham’s unpopularity within the GOP and the rumors circulating about his personal life, the Dems should at least field a candidate against him.
A quick look at the field shows probable pick-ups in New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota, and Colorado. Oregon is going to be interesting. The second tier of seats are New Mexico, Nebraska, Kentucky, and North Carolina. And in the third-tier: Texas, Oklahoma, Alaska, Idaho, and Tennessee. And perhaps, Kansas. That’s a lot of competitive seats. Will we get 60 votes to pass a firm deadline for withdrawal? I think it is quite possible…although 67 to overcome a presidential veto still looks far-fetched.
In House news, Rep. Chris Shays (CT-04), the last House Republican from New England, says he will quit Congress if he isn’t assured the top slot on the Oversight and Government Reform committee. The problem is that he isn’t in line for the position. The ranking member is currently Tom Davis (VA-11), followed by Dan Burton (IN-05). Rep. Davis is considering a run for Senate, but that just got a lot less attractive with Mark Warner entering the race. And, even if Davis decides to commit career suicide, Dan Burton has seniority over Shays. It looks like Shays is creating an excuse for his retirement. Come 2009, Olympia Snowe and Judd Gregg could be the only remaining Republicans from New England in either house of Congress.
